Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 231800 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1200 PM MDT Wed May 23 2018

MVFR low cigs over eastern NM are slowly clearing as mixing begins
and convection starts firing along the east slopes of the central mt
chain. SHRA/TSRA will move northeast around 20 kt as they progress
into the eastern plains. TSRA may become strong to locally severe
with large hail, high winds, torrential rainfall, and frequent cloud
to ground lightning strikes. The greatest potential for severe will
stretch from near KTCC to KROW eastward. Low clouds will redevelop
again tonight along and east of the central mt chain in the wake of
the storm activity. Confidence however is not as high on coverage
of clouds and potential IFR impacts.



.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MDT Wed May 23 2018...
Gulf moisture will remain in place across eastern New Mexico today,
resulting in another round of scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. West of the central mountain chain, very dry air will
keep things dry while temperatures warm slightly above yesterday`s
readings. The warming trend continues through the remainder of the
week and into the weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds
overhead. Chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms will
continue from the south-central mountains eastward on Thursday before
southwest winds send Gulf moisture east of the state Friday.


Closed upper-low over the northern Great Basin continues to slowly
fill as it lifts northeastward. Southwest flow aloft on the southeast
periphery of this low will once again combine with plentiful low-
level Gulf moisture to result in another round of strong to severe
afternoon and evening thunderstorms in eastern NM today. Effective
bulk shear near 30kts along with higher CAPE values are progged this
afternoon and evening east of the central mountain chain. As a
result, another round of severe hailers is possible east of the
central mountain chain late this afternoon into the evening. Models
agree that most of the convective activity will either dissipate or
push east of NM after midnight. As a ridge aloft begins to build
overhead late-day Thursday, a lee side sfc trough expands ewd across
northeast NM and results in southwest winds and drier air putting an
end to storms. Gulf moisture and the resulting thunderstorms,
however, will remain from south- central mountains ewd Thursday
afternoon and evening. All areas dry out Friday as a ridge aloft
amplifies over NM.

As the above mentioned ridge axis translates just east of NM
Saturday, mixing increase and temperatures warm to between 5 to 15
degrees above seasonal averages. Saturday still looking like the
warmest/hottest day of the next seven. Both Saturday and Sunday look
breezy to locally windy as another closed low moves into the Great
Basin. Unfortunately, this system won`t be accompanied by a strong
backdoor cold front with NM expected to remain dry through much of
next week. Good news is that the models are already showing signs
that our warm season subtropical upper-high (responsible for the
North American Monsoon) develops over northern Mexico and Southern
Plains around the first of June.




Relatively moist and unstable conditions will prevail again today
across eastern portions of the state, where more wetting storms are
expected. Warm, dry and unstable conditions will prevail across
western and central portions of the state.

A drying/warming trend is forecast for the end of the work-week and
into the weekend as an upper level ridge amplifies over the region
then shifts east by Saturday, giving way to increasing
southwesterlies ahead of an approaching Pacific low. Hot, dry and
unstable conditions will be the story, with Haines values of 6
across most of the forecast area by Friday. Single digit RH hours
will be on the uptrend as well. Poor RH recovery Friday night will
set the stage for a potential critical fire weather event on
Saturday, thanks to increasing southwesterlies and a deepening lee
side trough. Critical fire weather conditions may persist into
Sunday as the Pacific low progresses east across the Great Basin and
into the Rockies, but may be limited to southern and eastern
portions of the forecast area. Winds will trend down early next week
as an upper level ridge builds over northern Mexico and the Desert
Southwest, but hot, dry and unstable conditions will likely persist.





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