504
FXUS65 KABQ 121202 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
602 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 600 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

- There is a high risk of burn scar flash flooding this weekend
  and a low chance of off-scar flash flooding with stronger storms
  that develop along and east of the Rio Grande Valley.

- Storms in central and eastern New Mexico have the potential to
  produce large hail and damaging wind gusts this afternoon and
  evening.

- The active monsoon pattern is expected to continue into next
  week, keeping the threat of burn scar flash flooding moderate to
  high each day through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1209 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

A potent convective outflow boundary with deeper moisture surged
west to the central mt chain late Friday evening. This boundary will
progress into the RGV with moderate gap winds expected on the east
side of the ABQ metro thru sunrise. The latest MOS guidance, RRFS,
and HRRR show gusts of 30 to 40 mph peaking thru 5am before slowly
decreasing after sunrise. The boundary will become stationary to the
west of the RGV and become a focus for additional showers and storms
this afternoon. The H5 high center will drift north toward southern
NV today which will allow steering flow over NM to become more north
to south. Daytime heating with deeper moisture, orographic forcing,
and strong instability will allow storms to develop within central
NM then move south/southeast on merging outflows. Storms may move
repeatedly over the same areas (cell training) along the higher
terrain today while the PWAT environment supports heavy rainfall.
The latest WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook has a large `Slight Risk`
area for the eastern half of NM. The most recent HRRR and HREF show
storm clusters within central NM developing into a large area of
storms from near Corona to Ruidoso and Roswell after sunset. The
current Flash Flood Watch for burn areas may need expansion to some
of the RGV and nearby higher terrain depending on guidance trends.
The latest RRFS and NAM12 do not maintain any of this convection
after sunset. This model disagreement decreases confidence that a
potential second round of storms could impact the Ruidoso area burn
scars this evening. Whatever remnant showers and storms do linger
over southeast NM tonight will taper off to mid level clouds thru
sunrise Sunday.

The H5 high center over southern NV will continue drifting to the
north and east toward UT by Sunday. This will allow flow aloft to
become more north/northeast to south/southwest. Deep moisture with
abundant instability and sufficient lift is likely to allow another
healthy crop of storms to fire up along the central mt chain by noon
Sunday. This activity will move slowly southward with colliding
outflows leading to additional storms in the RGV and nearby high
plains thru Sunday evening. PWATs continue to increase above 1"
along and east of the central mt chain and more cell training is
possible. WPC still shows a `Marginal Risk` for excessive rainfall
which may be elevated to `slight` depending on how heavy rainfall
evolves over the area today. Another large cluster of showers and
storms may take shape as convection merges south and east of ABQ
into Sunday evening. This may continue the threat for flash flooding
in the Ruidoso area thru late Sunday evening. Otherwise, most areas
will see partial clearing overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1209 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

A more defined monsoonal moisture plume will begin setting up over
New Mexico on Monday as high pressure remains off to the southwest.
This will finally bring higher rain chances to the areas along and
west of the Continental Divide that have generally been left out of
the active Monsoon thus far. Tuesday and Wednesday are both looking
like active days, with light north to northwest flow aloft. This
will favor storms for areas just to the southwest of mountain ranges
(e.g Albuquerque and Santa Fe) as storms move off the mountains
into the lower elevations during the afternoon and evening hours.
Burn scar flash flooding will remain of high concern, especially
given that soil saturation will only increase with time.

A near-stationary mid-level Low near Baja California will slowly
work its way north mid-week, keeping near to slightly above average
PWATs over the entirety of New Mexico through the end of the week.
Moisture content is particularly high on both Wednesday and
Thursday, which could be the most active days of the week.
Relatively low 500mb heights (590-592dam) overhead will also limit
the amount of subsidence and help to increase the coverage of
storms. Global models keep moisture around through the weekend,
allowing the active pattern to persist. Temperatures will also drop
below seasonal averages late week due to the lower heights aloft and
increased cloud cover from convective activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Storms continue to re-generate in the eastern plains this morning,
but will decrease in both coverage and intensity through the
morning, before ending by 18Z. MVFR to IFR cigs have developed along
the east slopes of the central mountain chain. Clouds will begin to
dissipate after 17Z, potentially not clearing until as late as 21Z
in the central/northeast highlands. Scattered storms may impact
areas east of the Continental Divide this afternoon, moving from
northwest to southeast at 10 to 15 kts. There is a low chance of
large hail and damaging wind gusts with storms in the afternoon and
evening in central and eastern areas. Storms may persist as late as
09Z in the southeast plains tomorrow night, however confidence in
storms in this area remains low at this time. There is a low to
moderate chance that MVFR to IFR cigs develop in eastern NM tomorrow
night after storms end.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1209 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the
forecast period. Scattered to widespread storms are likely each day,
generally favoring northern and eastern New Mexico. Wetting rainfall
is likely in almost all locations and multi-day rainfall may exceed
3 inches portions of the eastern plains. Good to excellent RH
recoveries are likely each night in eastern New Mexico, with fair
recoveries favored in the western third of the state. Prevailing
winds will generally be light, outside of gap winds tonight and
tomorrow night through passes in the central mountain chain and
gusty outflow winds near storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  96  61  96  65 /   0   0   5  10
Dulce...........................  91  46  91  45 /  20  10  50  40
Cuba............................  89  55  88  55 /  20  20  40  40
Gallup..........................  94  49  94  55 /   5   5  10  30
El Morro........................  89  54  89  56 /  10  10  40  50
Grants..........................  93  54  92  55 /  20  10  40  40
Quemado.........................  91  57  91  58 /  20  20  60  70
Magdalena.......................  89  60  88  60 /  30  40  70  50
Datil...........................  88  54  87  55 /  30  30  70  60
Reserve.........................  96  54  96  54 /  30  30  70  60
Glenwood........................  99  59  99  59 /  50  30  80  60
Chama...........................  83  46  83  46 /  40  10  60  40
Los Alamos......................  81  59  83  58 /  50  40  70  30
Pecos...........................  78  55  81  54 /  60  50  80  30
Cerro/Questa....................  81  51  83  52 /  70  30  60  30
Red River.......................  71  43  73  43 /  80  30  70  30
Angel Fire......................  72  38  75  38 /  80  30  70  20
Taos............................  83  49  85  50 /  70  30  60  30
Mora............................  74  48  78  48 /  80  40  80  30
Espanola........................  91  58  91  58 /  50  40  50  30
Santa Fe........................  83  59  83  58 /  70  50  70  40
Santa Fe Airport................  86  58  87  58 /  60  50  60  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  92  66  92  65 /  50  50  60  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  93  64  94  64 /  40  40  40  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  96  64  96  64 /  40  40  30  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  94  65  94  65 /  40  40  30  40
Belen...........................  96  61  95  62 /  30  40  30  40
Bernalillo......................  94  63  95  63 /  40  40  40  40
Bosque Farms....................  96  61  95  61 /  40  40  30  40
Corrales........................  96  64  96  64 /  40  40  40  40
Los Lunas.......................  96  63  95  63 /  30  40  20  40
Placitas........................  89  63  91  63 /  50  50  50  30
Rio Rancho......................  94  64  94  64 /  40  40  40  40
Socorro.........................  98  65  97  65 /  40  50  40  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  84  56  87  56 /  60  50  60  40
Tijeras.........................  86  59  88  58 /  60  50  60  40
Edgewood........................  84  54  86  54 /  60  50  60  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  84  54  87  52 /  60  50  60  30
Clines Corners..................  75  54  80  55 /  50  50  60  30
Mountainair.....................  84  56  86  55 /  50  60  60  40
Gran Quivira....................  83  56  84  55 /  50  70  70  40
Carrizozo.......................  89  62  87  60 /  40  60  60  40
Ruidoso.........................  80  56  79  55 /  60  50  80  30
Capulin.........................  71  51  78  51 /  60  40  30  10
Raton...........................  77  52  83  52 /  70  40  40  10
Springer........................  78  53  84  52 /  70  40  50  20
Las Vegas.......................  75  52  80  52 /  70  40  70  30
Clayton.........................  75  59  83  59 /  40  40  10  20
Roy.............................  75  56  81  57 /  70  50  30  20
Conchas.........................  82  62  87  63 /  60  40  20  30
Santa Rosa......................  80  61  84  60 /  50  40  30  30
Tucumcari.......................  79  59  85  60 /  40  40  10  30
Clovis..........................  83  63  86  63 /  40  50  20  40
Portales........................  84  64  87  63 /  50  50  20  40
Fort Sumner.....................  85  64  87  63 /  40  30  20  30
Roswell.........................  90  68  89  67 /  40  50  20  30
Picacho.........................  85  61  84  60 /  50  40  40  30
Elk.............................  84  59  83  57 /  50  30  60  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ214-
215-226-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16