Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 212340 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
540 PM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Dry north to nwly flow aloft will remain in place over NM tonight and
Sunday morning before light wly flow aloft moves over. A weak
backdoor cold front over eastern NM will push south and westward
overnight with low cigs possible tonight from the east slopes of the
Sangre de Cristos and Sandia/Manzano Mts ewd, likely impacting KLVS
and KTCC. Low cigs expected to dissipate during the late morning



.PREV DISCUSSION...255 PM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018...
Cooler air has moved over the area behind a Pacific cold front, but a
warming trend will begin tomorrow with daytime temperatures rising
back above normal areawide by Monday. A backdoor cold front will
slide down the Eastern Plains Tuesday, bringing cooler air and
chances for showers and storms to the eastern half of the state. The
front will bring strong and gusty east canyon winds into the Rio
Grande Valley Tuesday night. Chances for showers and storms will be
on the uptrend toward the end of next week, thanks to another
backdoor front forecast to push in on Thursday.


The upper low is moving out of the plains along the KS/OK border,
leaving a relatively cool airmass in it`s wake. Area radars showing
showers across SE Colorado and NE New Mexico, but should diminish
between sunset and midnight with the loss of daytime heating as the
upper low moves further away. A low stratus deck is forecast to
redevelop across the northeast plains/highlands this evening, with at
least some potential for fog overnight between Raton, Las Vegas and
Clayton. A ridge will follow behind the upper low tonight into
Sunday, with a warming trend kicking-off. Lingering moisture and
daytime heating may combine to produce isolated showers/storms late
Sunday afternoon across the western and northern high terrain, but
very little if any measurable precipitation is expected. Warming will
continue into Monday, with daytime temperatures reaching above
normal areawide.

A backdoor cold front is still on track to progress down the Eastern
Plains Tuesday, reaching the east slopes of the Central Mountain
Chain by late day. It is unclear if the front will kick-up some dust
across the Eastern Plains, given recent spotty precipitation, but
wind speeds may be supportive. West of the front, temperatures will
once again reach above normal. Upslope flow and limited moisture may
result in a few showers/storms Tuesday afternoon, favoring the east
slopes of the Sangres. The front will create strong and gusty east
canyon/gap winds Tuesday night as it progresses west beyond the Rio
Grande Valley. Another, potentially stronger (if the 12Z ECMWF
works-out), backdoor front will push in Thursday and bring
increasing chances for showers/storms going into the end of next
week. The forecast beyond Friday is of lower confidence given
significant differences between the 12Z operational runs of the ECMWF
and GFS with the handling of an upper low from over California.



t has been awhile since we can say there will be no widespread
critical fire weather concerns through the next week. But that is
what we have going on now. Yesterday`s storm is moving away to the
east and a ridge of high pressure will move in for Sunday. Tonight
will be generally clear except low clouds may develop again in the
northeast with patchy fog. A subtle wind shift to the northeast and
east tonight across eastern NM may squeeze through the gaps and
canyons of the central mountains and spill into the Rio Grande
Valley around midnight, but it will be a minor event. Sunday will
turn out mostly sunny and warmer with highs near normal and not much
wind. Minimum relative humidities will drop into the teens in the
west and 20s to low 30s in the east. Vent rates will generally be
good or better, except fair to poor in valleys and on the east
central plains.

The upper ridge will try and hold on Monday as a short wave trough
moves across the northern Rockies. Highs will continue to trend
warmer and be above normal. An approaching back door cold front
could help trigger a few showers and storms Monday into Monday night
over the northern Sangres and far northeast. Vent rates will be

The cold front will dive south into NM Monday night with a much
cooler day in the east Tuesday. A few showers and storms may linger
over the Sangre de Cristos. Chilly north winds will impact the east.
Vent rates will remain excellent in the west but drop to good in the

The rest of next week still looks muddled in terms of how much
precipitation will be around. High pressure will be trying to build
over the state while a strong storm takes shape off the west coast.
Return flow moisture looks to generate some precipitation Wednesday
and Thursday, while a back door cold front Thursday night brings an
increase in moisture for Friday. Overall temperatures will be near
to below normal and winds mostly light and minimum humidities mostly
above 15 percent!






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