Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 252329
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
529 PM MDT Fri May 25 2018

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Mostly clear skies continue with some high-based cumulus lingering
along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains this evening.
High clouds will begin arriving from the southwest overnight and
Saturday. Light breezes overnight, then becoming breezy to windy
Saturday afternoon. Very warm temperatures will lead to high density
altitude readings, potentially posing difficulties during ascents.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT Fri May 25 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system crossing the central Rockies will
strengthen winds over New Mexico this weekend with fire weather
concerns mainly in the west Saturday and mainly in the east Sunday.
There could be a few sprinkles across central areas Saturday night.
Wind and fire weather concerns may linger across the northeast on
Monday. There is also a slight chance that the dry line will trigger
some thunderstorms across the far eastern plains Sunday afternoon and
Monday afternoon. There will be a better chance for showers and
thunderstorms across far northeast New Mexico Wednesday afternoon as
a disturbance aloft interacts with a weak back door cold front. An
upper level trough will deepen on the west coast during the latter
half of the coming work week with more wind and fire weather concerns
possible in some areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Overall the warm and dry weather pattern will continue for the next 7
days as the storm track stays well to the north of NM.

An upper level low pressure system crossing the central Rockies this
weekend and early next week will steer a modest speed maximum in the
polar jet stream over the state with breezy to locally windy
conditions mainly in the west saturday, mainly along and east of the
central mountain chain Sunday, then lingering in the northeast
Monday. The system will cause high temperatures to trend downward a
few degrees in many places Sunday and Monday, but readings will
remain a few to several degrees above normal. The exiting system will
leave a cool front over SE CO in it`s wake Wednesday, then a
shortwave trough in southwest flow aloft may interact with the back
door cold front to produce a chance of showers and storms across
northeast NM Wednesday afternoon.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RETURN OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...

As expected, the surface moisture was quick to exit the forecast
area this afternoon with very low humidity transpiring as
temperatures rise a few more degrees. The low layer moisture may
slosh back into far northeastern and southeastern corners of the
forecast area overnight, but is not expected to be very invasive.

The Memorial Day weekend pattern will be defined by a Pacific low,
moving inland over NV on Saturday and into UT on Sunday and Monday
before filling in and exiting into the northern Rockies. This will
steer slightly stronger winds aloft into NM with the lee side
surface trough making its appearance. This will induce a slightly
stronger surface gradient with breezy to windy surface/20ft winds
Saturday afternoon, mostly in far western and northeastern areas of
the state. Marginally critical wind speeds in these western and
northeastern areas will be complemented by extremely low RH, high
Haines indices, and well above average temperatures. Winds are the
fly in the ointment and still appear to be somewhat marginal, thus
confidence is not quite there to upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a
Warning; will let the night shift take one final analysis.

As the upper low slowly shifts from NV to UT on Sunday, the speed
max aloft will also translate a bit farther east while lee side
surface troughing persists. This would steer breezy to windy
conditions over the eastern half of NM with the strongest speeds
over the northeast corner of the state. Additional critical
conditions are expected here amid the continued above average
warmth, very low RH and high Haines environment. Have opted to hoist
a Watch for Sunday for the northeastern quarter of NM to account for
this.

Winds could weaken a bit into Monday as the low fills in more over
northern UT, but the lee side trough will keep a sufficiently strong
surface gradient intact over northeastern NM. Windy conditions will
be more stubborn to relax here in the northeastern zones, and yet
another day of critical conditions will be possible there on Monday.
Winds do relax more into the mid week period, precluding widespread
critical conditions.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening
for the following zones... NMZ103-105-106-109.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
the following zones... NMZ103-104.

&&

$$



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