Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

439
FXUS65 KABQ 182120
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion.
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
315 PM MDT Fri May 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will be closer to normal, or even a few degrees below,
for mid May, through the middle of next week. Low level moisture
will gradually increase from the east slopes of the central mountain
chain over the eastern plains, thanks to a couple of cold fronts
this weekend. Gusty east winds may develop into the Rio Grande
Valley Saturday and Sunday nights, pushing some of the moisture
westward. Chances for thunderstorms trend upward through the weekend
and early next week in the central and east, while isolated activity
with little to no rain and gusty winds will prevail in the west.
Chances for thunderstorms diminish by the middle of next week, with
drier and windier weather forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Convection increasing in southeast CO this afternoon as RAP13 and
HRRR predict a surface boundary will sag into ne NM this evening and
overnight. Think this boundary may make more progress towards I-40
thanks to the CO convection at this time, but not much impact if it
does, with small pops over the ne tonight.  The boundary mixes out
Saturday with a stronger one Saturday night, reaching the east
slopes of the central mountain chain and pushing an east wind into
the Rio Grande Valley. Yet another round of moisture sloshing
westward occurs Sunday night, and this may produce a stronger east
wind into the Rio Grande Valley as the westward push is assisted by
an approaching upper low. Unfortunately, the low is forecast to lift
to the northeast early next week, bypassing NM, but not before
potentially drawing up some deeper moisture at least temporarily
Monday into Tuesday.  Upshot is there will be increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms from the central mountain chain eastward
over the weekend and into early next week before a drying trend
commences. The west will remain mostly dry though, with potential
for some dry showers and storms with little to no rain and gusty
winds. However, another front could replenish moisture across the
east in time for the early part of the Memorial Day weekend.

Guidance temperatures at odds with Sunday`s highs. MET and MAV are
up to 15 degrees different with forecast highs over the eastern
plains with MET guidance being cooler. Leaned toward the ECMWF
guidance, which was more similar to the MAV.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
There will be a break in critical fire weather conditions after
today as an upper level trough exits from the central Rockies
northeastward onto the Great Plains this weekend. As the system
exits, a back door cold front will sag into northeast and possibly
east central areas tonight with an increase in humidities. A
stronger back door cold front will push through eastern areas late
Saturday afternoon and night with wind gusts potentially reaching 40
to 50 mph along NM`s eastern border. The front will also push into
the Middle Rio Grande Valley with a gusty east canyon wind Saturday
night into Sunday morning. Peak gusts could reach 45 mph below
Tijeras Canyon, but probably only around 35 mph farther south and
around Santa Fe. Moisture will increase enough with the front for a
chance of showers and thunderstorms along and east of the North
Central Mountains Saturday afternoon, but any wetting precipitation
will probably favor lower elevations of the northeast.

The back door cold front should push all the way to the AZ border,
or at least the Continental Divide, Sunday night. The moisture with
the front may be fairly shallow in the west, so it could mix out by
Sunday afternoon. However, there is a slight chance that the
moisture will be deep enough for a few gusty and dry thunderstorms
west of the central mountain chain to the Continental Divide Sunday
afternoon. Spotty wetter variety thunderstorms are expected along
the central mountain chain and across the east central plains Sunday
afternoon and especially Sunday evening.

Sunday and Sunday night, an upper level low pressure system will
move over the Great Basin from the west and stall there. It will
draw a moist low level return flow into the state from the south and
southeast Monday through Tuesday. There will be a healthy chance of
wetting showers and storms along and east of the central mountain
chain both days, with spottier, drier thunderstorms westward to the
Continental Divide. Ahead of the upper low, winds will become breezy
over western NM with critical fire weather conditions possible for
the Northwest Highlands, and locally critical conditions elsewhere
along and west of the Continental Divide, both Monday and Tuesday
afternoons.

The upper low will eject gradually northeastward across the northern
Rockies Wednesday through the end of the week, ushering a mid level
dry slot over NM from the southwest in the process. This will cause
a downtick in thunderstorm activity Wednesday, when spotty cells
will probably favor locations along and east of the central mountain
chain. The weather will probably be dry areawide by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Winds will be gusty again today. The strongest winds are expected
along and east of the central mountain chain, and especially along
and east of the south central mountains where gusts may reach 35 kt
at times. A back door cold front will sag into the northeast plains
tonight with a northerly wind shift. The front could trigger a few
showers near the CO border.

44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  42  81  49  83 /   0   5   5   5
Dulce...........................  37  76  39  77 /   0  10  20  20
Cuba............................  43  75  46  73 /   0   5  10  10
Gallup..........................  33  79  39  81 /   0   5   0   0
El Morro........................  35  76  38  78 /   0   0   0   5
Grants..........................  36  79  40  80 /   0   5   5   5
Quemado.........................  41  77  42  79 /   0   0   0   5
Glenwood........................  46  85  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  32  70  35  70 /   0  10  20  30
Los Alamos......................  52  75  49  73 /   0  10  20  10
Pecos...........................  49  75  45  70 /   0   5  10  20
Cerro/Questa....................  36  70  38  69 /  10  20  30  20
Red River.......................  34  60  33  59 /  10  20  30  30
Angel Fire......................  28  66  31  63 /   5  20  30  30
Taos............................  36  74  39  73 /   5  10  20  10
Mora............................  42  72  39  66 /   0  10  20  20
Espanola........................  48  81  49  79 /   0   5  10  10
Santa Fe........................  49  76  47  72 /   0   5  10  10
Santa Fe Airport................  45  79  48  75 /   0   0  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  51  81  51  78 /   0   0   5  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  53  83  55  80 /   0   0   5   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  48  85  54  82 /   0   0   5   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  51  84  53  81 /   0   0   5   5
Los Lunas.......................  45  85  53  83 /   0   0   0   5
Rio Rancho......................  51  83  52  80 /   0   0   5   5
Socorro.........................  51  86  53  86 /   0   0   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  46  76  47  72 /   0   0  10  20
Tijeras.........................  46  79  48  75 /   0   0   5  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  41  81  44  75 /   0   0   5  10
Clines Corners..................  44  77  44  70 /   0   0   5  10
Gran Quivira....................  51  79  47  76 /   0   0   0  10
Carrizozo.......................  55  82  50  79 /   0   0   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  54  74  46  70 /   0   0   0  20
Capulin.........................  45  68  40  67 /  20  30  20  10
Raton...........................  43  73  42  72 /  10  20  20  10
Springer........................  43  77  43  72 /  10  20  20  10
Las Vegas.......................  42  75  41  67 /   0   5  10  10
Clayton.........................  53  77  46  72 /  10  20  10   5
Roy.............................  51  78  44  69 /   5  10  10  10
Conchas.........................  52  87  51  76 /   0   5  10  10
Santa Rosa......................  50  87  50  75 /   0   0   5  10
Tucumcari.......................  57  88  52  77 /   0   5  10  10
Clovis..........................  53  86  52  73 /   0   0  10  20
Portales........................  54  88  53  74 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Sumner.....................  56  89  53  76 /   0   0   5  10
Roswell.........................  56  93  57  81 /   0   0   5  10
Picacho.........................  55  85  52  75 /   0   0   5  10
Elk.............................  51  80  48  73 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ103-104-108.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.