920
FXUS62 KFFC 131741
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
141 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Key Messages:

  - Isolated afternoon thunderstorms in west Georgia could produce
   locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and strong wind gusts.

  - Heat index values over 100 remain likely through the weekend.

Fairly rinse and repeat to the forecast. Isolated thunderstorms are
once again expected this afternoon. Coverage continues to decrease
each afternoon as high pressure over the Gulf Coast develops. PWATs
remain near the 90th percentile. Expect any thunderstorms that
develops to be waterloaded with rainrates potentially 2-3" per hour.
A strong storm cannot be ruled out with frequent lightning and gusty
winds, though the greatest chance for this if further north.

Temperatures ramp up quickly this weekend with highs today in the
mid 90s. Dewpoints in and around 70 will lead to prolonged heat
index values of 100-105 and brief values in excess of 105. A heat
advisory is in effect for Sunday afternoon, though conditions will
be borderline. A heat advisory is also likely for Monday.
Thunderstorms coverage will be key to exactly how hot things get,
with greater coverage than expected leading to slightly cooler
conditions. Be prepared for the heat and have a plan to stay cool if
you plan to be in the sun for any extended amount of time.

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Key Messages:

  - Widespread rain and thunderstorms expected each afternoon and
evening through the long term.

  - Watching for tropical development in the Gulf.

  - Keeping an eye on the potential for additional Heat Advisories
through the middle of the week, but some uncertainty.

Forecast:

I feel like a broken record writing these lately, but long term
forecast looks to keep rain and thunderstorm chances relatively
high. Aloft, clear subtropical ridge is in place over the CWA per 2
PVU surface through end of week. A weak disturbance will slide
underneath this ridge from the east, moving from the Atlantic across
Florida and into Gulf by Tuesday into Wednesday, with the GFS
ensembles a bit faster than the Euro counterpart. Both model
ensembles have several members which develop a weak low in the Gulf
with enough strength to be worth monitoring for potential tropical
development. Waters in the area are plenty warm, and these
disturbances near the shoreline are a common pathway for development
in July. NHC has a 20% chance of development with this system.
Regardless of tropical development, weak disturbance will enhance
both moisture and lift across the CWA as it progresses towards
the west. Currently expecting widespread diurnally driven PoPs
each day through the end of the week. Biggest source of
uncertainty may be how previous days worth of convection
contaminates upper atmosphere, but surface heating and moisture
advection will likely even overcome a mostly moist adiabatic
profile.

Other thing to watch will be the heat. With several days worth of
triple digit heat indices to proceed it, the middle of the week -
could- see the highest ones thus far, with forecast heat indices
exceeding 105 across a good chunk of eastern central Georgia. The -
could- is due to uncertainty around the afternoon highs thanks to
what is expected to be widespread diurnal convection and cloud
cover. If these storms get going pretty early in the afternoon, we
may not achieve these heat indices. Still, it`s going to be quite
hot and quite muggy, in the air you can wear sort of way, so even if
forecast heat indices come down with increased rain confidence,
still plan to take it easy outdoors.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Cu field around 4kft is currently across much of the area and
storms are beginning to build over western GA. There is only a
slight chance for storms over ATL though through this evening.
Then expecting skies to begin to clear out again before the cu
field forms again tomorrow with a low chance for thunderstorms
again. Winds from the NW at 7-10 kt with gusts up to 15kt are
expected.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium on thunderstorm chances.
High on all other elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          96  73  97  73 /  10   0  20  20
Atlanta         94  74  96  76 /  20   0  20  20
Blairsville     88  65  89  67 /  30  10  30  20
Cartersville    94  71  95  72 /  20  10  20  10
Columbus        95  74  98  76 /  30   0  20  20
Gainesville     94  73  95  73 /  10   0  20  20
Macon           96  74  97  75 /  20  10  20  20
Rome            93  70  93  72 /  20  10  20  10
Peachtree City  94  71  96  73 /  20   0  10  20
Vidalia         96  75  96  74 /  20  10  50  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for GAZ024-025-027-
035>037-047-048-058-079-089>092-102>104.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for GAZ038-039-049>051-
059>062-069>076-080>086-093>098-105>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...Hernandez