000
FXUS62 KFFC 261100 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
700 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2019

.UPDATE FOR AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 354 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2019/

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...

The models are similar with forecasting the approach and passage of an
upper level low/trough today and tonight. Mainly light showers are
expected in the vicinity of the low/trough, favoring the west side of
central GA and up toward the ne mountains, this afternoon into tonight.
Instability is very limited or nil and while you can not completely rule
out a thunderstorm, the probability is too low to include at this time.

With the passage of the upper system tonight, an upper ridge builds
for Wednesday with a much drier airmass.

Forecast high temperatures are running about 3-9 degrees below normal
across the area today and near to as much as 10 degrees below normal
on Wednesday. Forecast low temperatures are running within around 5
degrees of normal for tonight.

Overall confidence is medium.

BDL

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

To begin the extended period, upper-level ridging and NW flow aloft
will be solidly in place over the southeastern CONUS. High pressure
will progressively build southward into the forecast area from a
surface high positioned just east of the Atlantic Coast. Dry
conditions and clear skies can be expected due to the influence of
this high pressure. Cold morning temperatures are furthermore
anticipated to start the period, with lows approaching freezing in
locations across the far northeastern mountains Thursday morning.
The flow aloft then shifts to WSW by Friday, which will lead to
increasing humidity and cloud cover going into the weekend.
Gradual warming is expected to be ongoing each day through the end
of the week, with high temperatures near climatological normals
on Thursday increasing to 5-8 degrees above climatological normals
by Saturday.

The next system approaches the area this weekend as an upper level
longwave trough drops from the Great Lakes region down to the
Tennessee Valley. At the surface, a low pressure system out ahead of
the trough will drop a cold front into the the Mississippi Valley by
late Saturday night, which will push eastward towards Georgia on
Sunday. Model guidance is continuing to trend towards agreement that
precipitation ahead of the front will enter northwest Georgia
overnight Saturday into Sunday morning, and move slowly through the
area throughout the day Sunday.

Latest ECMWF presents a wetter solution with a better-defined front,
while the GFS elongates and weakens the front as it moves into the
area, ultimately moving it out more slowly. GFS meanwhile develops
an intense shortwave just behind the front, which would indicate a
quick return of PoPs by Monday night. Model guidance is divergent at
this point, as ECMWF keeps this shortwave considerably weaker and
dry. Due to this discrepancy, have included rain chances on
Monday/Tuesday but have capped them at low-end chance PoPs. As the
cold front moves through, sufficient instability is possible across
the forecast area to support thunderstorm development, so maintained
a slight chance of thunder on Sunday and Monday morning. The exact
nature and impacts of the convection is still uncertain given
remaining model inconsistencies. Will continue to monitor severe
weather potential in ensuing forecasts as model guidance continues
to come into better agreement.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Potential for MVFR/VFR ceilings to develop or continue throughout
the day along with increasing shower chances. Surface winds
becoming NNE around 10 kts for most locations.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Low confidence for ceilings.
Medium confidence for timing of wind shift and shower chances.
High confidence for winds speeds.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          62  38  61  37 /  20  10   0   0
Atlanta         61  43  62  41 /  40  40   0   0
Blairsville     57  37  62  34 /  40  40   0   0
Cartersville    61  42  63  38 /  30  30   0   0
Columbus        66  45  66  41 /  40  60   0   0
Gainesville     60  40  59  39 /  30  30   0   0
Macon           65  41  63  36 /  40  30   0   0
Rome            61  43  64  38 /  20  20   0   0
Peachtree City  62  42  63  36 /  40  40   0   0
Vidalia         68  42  65  41 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...BDL