Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS64 KLUB 201737
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1237 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.AVIATION...
Flight categories should continue to improve this afternoon with
all sites VFR by mid-afternoon. However, ceilings are expected to
drop to IFR and possibly LIFR overnight as moisture continues to
advect into the region.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Intensity of thunderstorms continues to gradually diminish as
cooler air spreads in early this morning. Strong north winds
remain, however, across the west-central South Plains. We have
trimmed the earlier Wind Advisory - and expect it will be over by
6 am this morning. Showers may take until mid morning or so to
clear totally out of our eastern counties. Then, all expectations
are for a quiet and cool day with weak anticyclonic curvature
aloft, and low stratus hanging in across most of the area into the
afternoon before lifting/breaking up. Held close to latest
temperature trends, which were a bit cooler than previous.

Tonight a very weak impulse may lift northeast out of northern
Mexico towards our area as upper flow backs again in response to
the next upper low closing off while digging southeast through
central California. Most solutions show increasing shower/thunder
coverage lifting north from southwest Texas and the Pecos Valley
into our western areas especially. This fits previous forecast
fairly well, so only slight modifications for a little higher
chances late tonight into Monday.

And from this point into Wednesday southwest flow aloft is
expected to remain in place and become increasingly difluent
aloft. A well-defined upper trough appears will lift northeast
into the area again early Tuesday so again could favor late night
and early morning showers and thunderstorms. Less clear on lifting
mechanisms after that, but moisture will be abundant again
Wednesday. Also, at least through Wednesday, we expect at least
enough instability to consider strong to severe thunderstorm
threats each day. By the end of the week, upper ridging will
develop through the Rockies becoming sharper and perhaps bending
overhead by Saturday or Sunday. We would expect eventual
diminishing of precipitation coverage, though both AVN and ECMWF
generate at least limited precipitation around or nearby. Nice in
the meantime for some rain. RMcQueen

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/26



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