007
FXUS64 KLUB 111125
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
625 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

 - Dry through most of the daytime hours today with showers and
   thunderstorms increasing in coverage this evening through
   tonight.

 - Rain chances increase this weekend with heavy rainfall and
   flooding being possible threats.

 - Cooler conditions expected this weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Flat ridging aloft stretching from NM to AZ and off the SoCal
coast at 03z will continue to shrink and retreat westward through
the next 24 hours or so in response to a progressive series of
deepening mid/upper level shortwave troughs moving over the
northern Rockies. This evolution will bring a slightly cooler day
today compared to yesterday with highs generally in the low 90s. A
broad surface trough stretching from KS back into the TX
Panhandle will maintain south-southwesterly surface flow today,
with another round of showers and thunderstorms expected to
develop along the trough axis by late afternoon. These initial
storms are likely to begin well to our north, and with little
focus or forcing for ascent locally, will maintain a dry forecast
across our area during the daytime hours. Later on, a fairly
subtle shortwave disturbance aloft will likely cause diurnal
convection near the Raton Mesa to shift southeastward, then
combine with the Panhandle activity and grow upscale into a
cluster or MCS which is then expected to propagate southward into
our forecast area this evening. Given that large- scale forcing
for ascent and bulk shear magnitudes are both progged to be
relatively weak, there is uncertainty regarding how long into the
overnight hours convection will continue. Still, there is good
model consensus that the cluster/MCS will likely make it into
northern portions of the South Plains and Rolling Plains around
midnight before activity becomes more scattered for the rest of
the night. The severe weather potential will be generally be
limited by weak shear magnitudes, but some gusts up to 60 mph
along with locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the
strongest activity this evening through tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Friday)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

The digging shortwave trough mentioned above is progged to erode the
eastern flank of an upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest
while merging with a pre-existing trough located over southeast
Texas with a resultant increase in mid-level moisture and shower and
thunderstorm chances as early as Friday evening, although the best
chances come Saturday following a period of mid-level moisture
advection and further retrograding of the western upper ridge. That
pattern remains fairly stagnant through the weekend and possibly
into Monday or Tuesday. At that point there are signs that the
eastern subtropical ridge will attempt to build westward with some
drying in the mid-levels, but another trough moving across the
central/northern Plains will try to send a cold front southward down
the High Plains, possibly become a focus for convective development
midweek. As a result, precip chances through the week look fine with
the highest being over the weekend. Increasing PWATs to 90th
percentile and weak flow and shear point to a flooding threat and
will continue to monitor as the event unfolds.

Temperatures through the period should return to below normal,
especially on the daytime high side, as heights and thicknesses
fall and as cloud cover and moisture increase.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR with southerly winds 10-15 knots. Couple small showers and
brief TS from PVW west to CVS should dwindle in the coming hours
before a more focused round of TS arrive later tonight with
impacts most likely at PVW. Remaining terminals may see TS closer
to 10-12Z which later TAFs will revisit.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...93