Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 162344

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
644 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday. A low level jet will
develop this evening leading to LLWS. This jet will mix to the
surface before noon Tuesday with increasing south to southwest
winds at each terminal.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018/

A surface low is expected to develop tonight across southeastern CO
off of the current surface trough. This will help to keep winds on
the breezy side through the night. A new surface low is expected to
develop across eastern CO by tomorrow morning and deepen as it
pushes across central KS bringing a weak front southward. During
this same time a shortwave trough will push across central CO and
NM. This will allow for even more windy conditions than what was
seen today. Temperatures will be warmer as thermal ridging sets in
ahead of the approaching front which, combined with single digit
dewpoints and windy conditions, will create extremely critical fire
weather danger. Fire weather danger will last well after sunset as
winds remain breezy behind the front. The front will only cool temps
into the low to mid 70s for Wednesday, but winds will remain light
allowing for on last nice day before an anticipated upper low pushes
towards the FA.

The aforementioned low is expected to move onshore across central CA
early Thursday morning. The low is progged to deepen and develop a
neutral tilt as it approaches the 4 Corners region. Surface winds
will increase to 20-25 knots out of the southeast ahead of the low
helping to bring moisture rich GOMEX air northwestward Thursday and
Friday. Some convection could be possible along the TX/NM state line
Thursday evening as the low approaches and a dryline sets up in
central NM, however the main convection event is expected on Friday
as the low progresses eastward towards the FA pushing along with it
a dryline. While organized severe storms look to be a high
possibility, storm severity is uncertain given the environment will
be high shear/low CAPE. Current forecasted MLCAPE is only around 600-
700 on the high side while 0-6 km shear is 60-80 knots. This is
aided by a 40-45 knot LLJ underneath a 100+ knot upper jet.
currently hail and wind appear to be the biggest threat, but
tornadoes cannot be ruled out as LCLs will most likely be low.
Heavy rain will also be a possibility as, in addition to very good
divergence aloft, PWATS will be around 1 inch.

Current model runs have the low further south across the Texas
Panhandle by late Saturday/early Sunday with the low moving into OK
by Sunday morning. This would bring a chance for wrap-around showers
Sunday as another front pushes into the region.

Extremely critical fire weather danger will be present across the
region tomorrow with RFTI values of 7 to 8. Winds will increase to
30 to 35 mph out of the west to southwest by the afternoon ahead
of an approaching cold front. Fire weather danger will remain high
until midnight tomorrow night during which time the cold front
will push through the region.


Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>044.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to midnight CDT Tuesday
night for TXZ021>044.



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