910
FXUS64 KLUB 261738
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1238 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected once again
   today across much of the region.

 - Daily chances for thunderstorms continue Friday through early
   next week.

 - A relative warm-up is expected this weekend before slightly
   cooler temperatures return next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Today, an upper jet max within the polar jet will move from the
central plains into the northeast USA and southeastern Canada. A
dome of upper level high pressure continues to be situated over
the southern US while another shortwave upper trough comes ashore
over the Pacific Northwest.

Monsoon moisture as well as additional moisture from the Gulf will
continue to bring a pattern of light precipitation into the CWA.
This will increasingly be the case beginning in the early afternoon
hours as scattered showers and thunderstorms will initiate over
the area and continue to linger throughout the evening. Despite
low vertical wind shear magnitudes, expected CAPE should range
from 500 to 1000 J/kg resulting in an environment favorable for
short lived pulse storms. Primary hazards are expected to be
downburst winds to 50 mph. Given the cloud cover and low level
moisture present, afternoon highs for today will reach the mid to
upper 80s over much of the Caprock which is a few degrees lower
than average for this time of year. Highs in the low to mid 90s
are expected off the Caprock.

Into this evening, there should be a general downward trend of
thunderstorm areal coverage and intensity. There is, however, a
risk of a storm or two moving out of eastern New Mexico overnight.
As such we may see lingering nocturnal convection once again
tonight into Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Daily chances for afternoon thunderstorms will be possible through
at least early next week with a persistent monsoonal moisture plume
overhead. Upper level ridging will continue over the southeastern
CONUS through the weekend bringing weak southwest flow aloft over
West Texas. Weak embedded disturbances within this flow may bring
higher chances of convection early next week as the southwest flow
aloft persists. Warm temperatures each afternoon will lead to a
deeply mixed boundary layer and at least isolated showers and
thunderstorms. Weak deep layer shear will bring low chances of
severe storms but slow storm motions. Isolated areas could see heavy
rainfall with the weak flow through the atmospheric column. Towards
the middle of next week, upper level ridging will become weaker with
time leading to a weakness within the height field aloft. Slight
chances of afternoon storms may continue underneath this weakness.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

VFR conditions prevail and are expected to persist outside of the
SHRA/TSRA today. Iso SHRA that has continues all morning will
remain in place all day with accompanying OVC090. Have included a
tempo for possible afternoon TSRA at KLBB and KPVW after 00Z. The
threat of TSRA and the SHRA will gradually diminishing overnight
before retuning late tomorrow morning. Winds will remain primarily
SW at 5-10 kts.


&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...28