Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 151925

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
225 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Seasonably cool surface ridge centered in the Hill Country will
continue meandering east tonight in advance of a swift-moving
upper ridge on Monday. This upper ridge will deliver a dome of
much warmer thicknesses to the South Plains tomorrow complete
with very breezy SW winds courtesy of lee troughing. In light of
such arid dewpoints remaining mostly intact tomorrow and Tuesday,
we continue to favor the warmest NWP guidance for highs on both
days. The only difference by Tuesday will be even more robust SW
winds as lee cyclogenesis ensues in Colorado. This will direct a
stronger belt of 700mb winds (around 50 knots) atop the region
which could easily be mixed into at times. However, soundings,
top-down analyses and MOS indicate Tuesday should be a solid wind
advisory event for most of the forecast area. One exception to
this may unfold in the far SW Panhandle near an axis of stronger
800mb winds with some indications of high wind potential at times.

Following the passage of Tuesday`s cyclone well to our north, a
Pacific front should drive ESE across the region Tue night with a
Canadian front on its heels by early Wed morning. This latter
front should plow south across Texas before stalling near the
Gulf coast by Wed evening. Provided the upper flow remains largely
zonal following the upper trough, this front should not deal too
much damage to Gulf moisture which will be vital for richer PWATs
to return to the region Thu and Fri. This process will be spurred
by strong SE low-level flow ahead of a slow moving and mostly
stacked upper low moving across the Four Corners by late week.
Pattern recognition from late Thu through Fri night consists of
increasingly meridional flow and a long residence time of moisture
and ascent, so PoPs continue to be favored in the neighborhood of
50 percent. Models are in good agreement for the time being with
this broader pattern before dry slotting arrives on Saturday
followed by a northerly cold front.


Upgraded Monday and Tuesday to Red Flag Warnings for most and all
of the forecast area, respectively. RFTI values by Monday afternoon
in Childress and Cottle counties are currently too marginal to justify
inclusion in the Warning, whereas remaining areas will see RH values
of 5 to 10 percent with SSW winds of 20 to 25 mph. Tuesday should
see very critical to extreme wildfire behavior as SW winds ramp up
to 25 to 35 mph over the entire region with even lower RH values
at times thanks to highs 15 to 20 degrees above normal. RFTI
values of 7 and 8 are currently forecast for most of the region by
Tuesday afternoon.


Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for TXZ021>025-

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ021>044.



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