421
FXUS62 KMLB 031750
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
150 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 332 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

- Unusually deep moisture across the area will produce high
  chances of showers and lightning storms through Saturday.
  Greatest coverage generally in the afternoon and evening, but
  higher than normal chances in the overnight and morning.

- A few strong storms capable of frequent lightning strikes, gusty
  winds and, in particular, heavy rain.

- Rounds of showers and storms will increase the risk for minor
  flooding, especially for areas that receive locally high
  rainfall amounts multiple days in a row.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Today-Fri...A weak front dropping into the deep South will stall
across north FL Fri with deep moisture across the area (PWATs
2-2.25") keeping a tropical airmass in place. As a result, multi-
layered cloudiness and high rain chances (70-80%) will limit max
temps to the upper 80s. It will be very humid though with peak
heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. Greatest coverage of
rain/storms will be in the afternoon/early evening but scattered
showers will occur overnight and in the morning as well.
Thermodynamically, long skinny CAPEs with unimpressive lapse rates
do not augur well for severe weather but a few stronger storms
are possible esp assocd with boundary collisions, capable of gusty
winds to 45 mph, frequent lightning and heavy rain. It is
important to note that while rain chances are high, these will
not be all-day rains though some areas will see 2 or more rounds
of rain. Rainfall totals will be 1-3 inches with locally higher
amounts possible. While some ponding on roads will occur and one
or more Flood Advisories may be needed, most areas will be able to
handle this water and a Flood Watch is not anticipated.

Sat-Wed...Model guidance shows a weak low pressure developing
along the stalled front by Sat just offshore NE FL/SE GA coast.
NHC continues to gradually increase probabilities on development
of a tropical/subtropical depression with this low, but models
eventually take it N to NE away from the area early next week.
High rain chances are forecast to continue Sat then decrease
Sun and beyond but only back to more seasonable (climatological)
norms of 40-60 percent. The Atlc ridge axis which has been
suppressed well to our south should lift back northward towards
Florida. The decrease in rain chances and cloudiness will produce
an uptick in max temperatures reaching the lower 90s Sun-Wed and
heat indices climbing a bit each day reaching 102-106 Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 332 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

A weak front will stall across north FL late this week while the low
level Atlc ridge axis remains south of the local waters.
Considerable cloudiness and resulting SW flow will produce weak/
delayed sea breezes today and Friday. Weak low pressure is
forecast to develop along this stalled boundary over north FL or
offshore NE FL and meander. While winds and seas are generally
favorable for boating, rounds of showers and storms will pose a
continuous risk for mariners late this week and into the weekend.
The weak low will gradually shift N to NE away from the area Sun-
Mon. This will allow the low level ridge axis to lift back
northward slightly, reducing the offshore flow and produce an
earlier sea breeze. Seas 1-3 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

VFR with intermittent MVFR conditions are in place across ECFL
terminals, likely to continue thru at least 00z. Deep moisture
will continue to provide SCT SHRA/TSRA this afternoon, affecting
most sites (with lower confidence in impacts at LEE). Low
probabilities remain of wind gusts 35+ kt. WSW flow 5-10 kt (up to
15 kt at coast) continues for most, except where the ECSB and/or
westward-moving outflow backs winds SE at the coast.

Drier conditions are forecast after 03z before SHRA/TSRA chances
gradually increase again after 15-17z Fri. A weak sea breeze is
possible at DAB Fri. after 15z, unless disturbed by earlier
convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  87  73  87 /  60  80  50  80
MCO  75  87  74  88 /  60  80  50  80
MLB  74  86  74  88 /  70  80  60  80
VRB  70  88  71  89 /  70  80  60  70
LEE  75  88  74  87 /  50  80  40  80
SFB  75  88  74  89 /  60  80  50  80
ORL  75  88  75  89 /  60  80  50  80
FPR  71  87  71  89 /  70  80  60  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Schaper