320
FXUS62 KMLB 262013
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
413 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Key Messages:

- Moistening trend this weekend and especially early next week
  should bring some needed rain to coastal sections.
- Heat indices reaching up to 103-106 daily.

Thru Tonight...A more well defined east coast sea breeze will
continue to push inland into early evening, aided by outflow from
showers and storms that spark along the boundary. Late morning
Cape sounding shows some of that low level moisture has entrained
some of the drier air in the mid levels and that has allowed
dewpoints to fall into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Convective
initiation occurred earlier this afternoon across the far north
where deeper moisture resides. Expect an increase in storm
coverage across the interior as boundary collisions occur. Slow
and erratic cell motions will produce heavy rain with a quick 1-2
inches in some areas creating temporary flooding esp in urban
areas and where recent heavy rains have occurred. Lightning
strikes will be the primary threat. Once again the immediate
coast has remained rain-free but outflow boundaries may push back
to the Volusia and Brevard coasts and bring some shower activity
with them after sunset. The good news for the coast is rain
chances will be increasing over the next few days as deep moisture
becomes more widespread and the steering flow (though weak)
increasingly favors the eastern peninsula.

Saturday-Tuesday (previous)...The mid-term forecast has become a
little more unsure as a complicated upper-air pattern develops. A
mid- level low developing over Texas gets swept up by a broad
trough over the western US, while the mid-level trough over the
eastern seaboard develops into mid-level low of its own as it
pushes offshore into the western Atlantic. The upstream low is
absorbed into the broad trough Sunday, cutting off the low over
the western Atlantic until it too is absorbed late Monday or so.
GFS and ECM have slightly different results of this evolution,
with ECM building a trough over the eastern US that digs all the
way down to Florida, possibly supporting some stronger storms,
while the GFS tilts the trough out into the western Atlantic
instead.

For Florida, a surface low developing in the western Atlantic in
response to the trough and mid-level low aloft is still expected
to pull higher moisture associated with a frontal boundary across
the CONUS down into Florida and further increase rain chances. If
anything, there`s now better agreement the drier air north of the
boundary will stay offshore, keeping rain chances high. The
question is how soon and how much the Atlantic high can build
back, depending on where the mid-level trough ends up. As long as
the high stays suppressed offshore, a loose pressure gradient
will remain in place with little to no steering flow, which looks
to be the scenario through Tuesday at this juncture. Thus, slow
and erratic storm motion combined with the high rain chances will
continue to pose a threat for localized minor flooding.

Once again no significant changes to forecast temperatures. While
the humidity will certainly be back, the increasing rain chances
and cloud cover will subtly lower afternoon highs a few degrees
from the L-M90s Saturday to the U80s-L90s Tuesday. Heat indices
follow a similar trend, peaking up to 107 Saturday, and 102
Tuesday.

Wednesday-Friday (previous)...The Atlantic high looks to build
back to Florida by Wednesday or Thursday, reestablishing southerly
to southeasterly flow depending where the ridge axis lands. Deep
tropical moisture is transported across Florida in this flow,
keeping daily rain chances at least 50-60 pct (continue to cap at
60 pct due to the time scale). Temperatures creep back up to the
L-M90s, bringing heat indices back up towards 106.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Winds and seas favorable for boating, but shower and storm chances
increase the next couple days, with high coverage expected Sunday
through much of next week. A weakening Atlantic high will loosen
the pressure gradient across the local waters, causing light
southerly winds to become increasing variable, especially by
Sunday and Monday, with the daily sea breeze shifting winds
southeasterly to easterly at around 10 kts in the afternoon and
evening. Seas 1-3 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

VFR outside of convection. VCTS and TSRA TEMPOs are in place
across the interior this afternoon where the greatest coverage of
convection is forecast. Dry along the coast from MLB southward
while VCTS/VCSH is mentioned at DAB/TIX. South winds become east
with the sea breeze passage. However, the wind direction at LEE
was a bit more tricky to pinpoint and could become largely
variable due to multiple boundaries developing in vicinity of the
terminal. Winds should generally remain 12 kts or less, but
locally higher gusts will be possible along the Treasure Coast.
VCTS/VCSH could linger into the late evening across much of the
interior, generally diminishing around 03Z. Light and variable
winds overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  93  75  91 /  20  60  30  60
MCO  77  95  76  93 /  50  70  20  70
MLB  76  93  76  91 /  20  40  20  60
VRB  74  93  75  91 /  20  30  10  60
LEE  76  94  76  92 /  50  70  30  80
SFB  77  95  76  92 /  40  70  30  70
ORL  77  95  77  93 /  50  70  20  70
FPR  74  93  74  91 /  10  30  10  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Law