Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 121444
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
945 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...

...Near Record Warmth Today and Tomorrow...

Current-Tonight...Old frontal boundary across south Florida will be
advancing back northward today as a warm front. This will provide us
with ESE/SE flow areawide with warm/moist conditions. WSR-88D shows
scattered coastal showers moving onshore the Treasure/Space coasts
this morning. Expect this activity to continue to advance
northwestward into the afternoon and deeper into the interior. Main
threats include heavy downpours and brief gusty winds. Thus far we
have reserved any lightning mention to over the coastal waters but
will monitor if we need to add an isolated threat over land.
Temperatures will climb well above seasonal norms this afternoon
into the U80s interior and at least the M80s near the coast. Expect
heat index values in the L-M90s this afternoon. Climate section
below highlights records/normals. Wind speeds today in upwards of 15
mph along the coast and 10-15 mph inland at times.

Tonight, as a front moves closer towards the FL Panhandle and
through the central Gulf, local surface winds will begin to veer
more SSE/S by sunrise Tue morning. Overnight lows very mild given
the moisture and southerly flow at/above surface. Expect near
record/record overnight warmth with mins in the L-M70s along the
coast (perhaps a couple U70s) and U60s/L70s interior. Again, see
Climate section below for records/normals. Shower chances will
decrease after sunset but will leave in a slight chance across the
far north and along the coast due to deep, onshore flow and as we
are in the warm sector ahead of the approaching front.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR outside any showers which will drop to MVFR
conditions briefly. Have VCSH in TAFs and will use tempo groups
accordingly. Warm front to move through area today with ISOLD-SCT
convection around moving up from the southeast. ESE/SE winds up to
around 15 kts near the coast and 10-15 kts elsewhere. Some gustier
winds invof showers. Continue in the warm sector tonight ahead of a
slow approaching front to the northwest. Light SE/S winds this
evening and overnight.

&&

.MARINE...Today-Tonight...As promised fluctuations in both wind/seas
into early next week with current buoy 41009 conditions, ESE winds
21G25kts and seas 5.6 ft. Continue with the Small Craft Advisory for
offshore waters and Cautionary Statements near shore. A warm frontal
boundary will press northward across the local waters today with
scattered showers and isolated lightning storms. Heavy downpours,
gusty winds up to around 30 kts and occasional lightning will
accompany precip. Seas will build 6-7 ft offshore and 4-6 ft near
shore. Present ESE/SE winds will veer more SSE/S through the night
with the very slow approach of the next cold front for later this
week. The pressure gradient is forecast to relax with diminishing
wind speeds through the night.

&&

.CLIMATE...Record high, warm low, and normal information for east
central Florida climate sites:

             RECORD           RECORD     RECORD   NORMAL
     DATE    HIGH     DATE    WARM LOW   HIGH     HI LO
DAB  12-Nov  88 2002  13-Nov  72 1994    85 2008  77 57
MCO  12-Nov  88 2015  13-Nov  70 1997    89 1948  79 58
SFB  12-Nov  89 2015  13-Nov  69 2008    88 2008  78 57
MLB  12-Nov  89 2002  13-Nov  73 2017    87 1938  78 60
VRB  12-Nov  90 2002  13-Nov  74 1993    86 2015  79 61
FPR  12-Nov  89 2002  13-Nov  74 1972    87 1992  80 61

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for Flagler Beach
     to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm offshore.

&&

$$

Sedlock/Bragaw


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