Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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384
FXUS62 KMLB 182026
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
426 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

...Strong to Severe Storms this Afternoon and Evening...
...Another Round of Strong to Severe Storms Sunday...
...Temperatures Remain Above Normal Sunday...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 422 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Currently-Tonight... Current radar imagery shows scattered strong to
severe lightning storms developing across east central Florida which
have produced 40-50mph+ winds. Convection is expected to continue
to increase in coverage into the late afternoon and evening
hours, especially near the coast as the east coast sea breeze
pushes slightly inland and sea breeze interactions occur (PoPs
~60-70%). A Marginal Risk for severe storms remains over east
central Florida. Isolated storms will be capable of producing wind
gusts up to 50 with a 5% risk of gusts up to 60mph, coin- sized
hail with a 5% risk of hail up to 1," occasional to frequent
lightning strikes, and periods of heavy rainfall. A brief tornado
also cannot be ruled out (2% risk). Rain chances dwindle into this
evening and early overnight before another round of showers and
storms are expected to develop into the morning and early
afternoon Sunday. Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the
upper 60s to mid 70s.

Sunday... Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lighting
storms are forecast to re-develop into Sunday morning well ahead of
a cold front. A Slight Risk for severe storms exists Sunday over
Brevard, Indian River, St. Lucie, Martin, eastern Okeechobee,
eastern Osceola, eastern Orange, and southern Volusia counties with
a Marginal Risk across the rest of east central Florida. Scattered
storms will be capable of producing wind gusts up to 50 with a 5%
risk of gusts up to 60mph, coin-sized hail with a 15% risk of hail
up to 1," frequent lightning strikes, and periods of heavy rainfall.

The best chance for strong to severe storms is between 8am to 12pm
to the north of I-4 with chances increasing to the southeast between
11am to 3pm from I-4 to Melbourne and Lake Kissimmee and from 1pm to
5pm to the south across the Treasure Coast to Okeechobee county.
West to southwest winds 10-15mph with gusts up to 20-25mph are
forecast outside of showers and lightning storms. Some of the
guidance (HRRR and GFS) indicate that winds may back slightly
onshore for a brief time into the afternoon along the Treasure Coast
and enhance convection. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the
mid to upper 80s north of a line that stretches from Lake Kissimmee
to Melbourne and the upper 80s to low 90s to the south under mostly
cloudy skies. Heat index values are forecast to reach the low 100s
across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee county.

Monday-Tuesday...Weak front shifts through the area Monday, but
some moisture remains in place through early in the week, with PW
values still around 1.3-1.5 inches on Monday and Tuesday. A mid to
upper level trough axis across the west Atlantic also remains
extended across FL, with series of disturbances pushing southward
across the area. This should continue to produce isolated to
scattered afternoon showers and storms, with the inland moving sea
breeze boundary each day. Slight onshore component to the low level
winds may even allow for a few onshore moving showers into the
morning hours. PoPs range from 40-50 percent on Monday and 30-50
percent on Tuesday. Cooler temps aloft, sufficient instability and
passing disturbances aloft may continue to allow for isolated strong
storms each afternoon.

Highs will be seasonably warm in the 80s across much of the area,
and low 90s possible over southern interior sections of east central
FL. Overnight lows will range from the mid 60s to low 70s.

Wednesday-Saturday...Trough aloft transitions to a closed low well
offshore of the Southeast U.S. and shifts eastward, with mid/upper
level ridge building in from the west through mid to late week. This
will lead to drier and hotter than normal conditions for the
remainder of the work week. Rain chances drop to 20-30 percent south
of Orlando on Wednesday and then only around 20 percent, primarily
across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast on Thursday/Friday.
Highs climb from the mid 80s to low 90s on Wednesday to as high as
the low to mid 90s into late week. Lows will continue to range
around the upper 60s to low 70s each night.

Ridge aloft then breaks down into Saturday with another passing mid
level trough. Moisture and rain chances rise just slightly, with
PoPs around 20 percent to start the holiday weekend. However, it will
remain hot with highs in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 422 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

TAFs begin with VCTS/TEMPO TSRA through 23Z-02Z with scattered
strong to severe lightning storms expected. SE winds at 10-12kts
with gusts to 20-22kts are forecast to weaken and veer offshore
overnight. Winds will increase from the SW at 10-12kts with gusts up
to around 20kts into Sunday afternoon. VCTS/TSRA groups return after
12Z-16Z Sunday with strong to severe storms ahead of a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 422 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Currently-Sunday... Mostly favorable boating conditions are forecast
outside of strong to severe lighting storms. Southeast winds at
around 10-15kts are forecast to veer offshore late this evening and
into the overnight hours at around 15kts from the southwest. Seas
are forecast to build to 1-3ft with up to 4ft offshore (20-60nm)
Brevard and Volusia county Sunday.

Scattered showers and lightning storms are expected this
afternoon and push offshore into the evening hours which will be
capable of wind gusts up to 50-60mph, coin sized hail, and
occasional to frequent lightning strikes. A secondary threat for a
brief tornado or waterspout also exists (2% risk). Scattered to
numerous showers and scattered lighting storms are forecast to re-
develop into Sunday morning and afternoon well ahead of a cold
front which will be capable of wind gusts up to 50- 60mph, coin
sized hail, and periods of heavy rainfall.

Monday-Thursday...Weak front shifts south of the waters Monday, with
N/NW winds around 5-10 knots, veering to the N/NE Monday night into
Tuesday. Winds then continue to veer onshore becoming easterly
through mid-week, with speeds remaining around 5-10 knots. Seas
increase to 3-5 feet into Monday and gradually fall back to 2-4 feet
Wednesday and 2-3 feet Thursday.

Isolated to scattered storms will continue to be possible into early
this week, with a better potential for gusty offshore moving storms
on Monday afternoon. Rain chances then decrease into mid-week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  87  69  83 /  40  70  30  40
MCO  74  86  71  88 /  30  60  30  40
MLB  73  89  70  87 /  30  70  50  40
VRB  73  91  70  88 /  20  80  50  50
LEE  74  86  71  87 /  40  60  20  40
SFB  73  88  70  87 /  40  60  30  40
ORL  74  88  72  88 /  40  60  30  40
FPR  72  91  70  88 /  20  80  50  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ053-058-154-159-
     164-254-259-264-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fehling
LONG TERM...Weitlich
AVIATION...Fehling