Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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704
FXUS62 KMLB 121842
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
242 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Current-Tonight...Outflow boundaries pushing southward from
scattered to numerous storms over north Florida will be capable of
producing additional convection into northern Lake and Volusia
counties through late afternoon. Additional isolated to scattered
showers and storms will shift eastward across central Florida
along and ahead of the west coast sea breeze. The east coast sea
breeze has formed from the Cape southward and is beginning to move
slowly westward. This boundary will likely not make it very far
inland, stalling near to just west of I-95 as model guidance shows
low level offshore flow gradually strengthening through the
remainder of the afternoon. This will provide focus for late day
boundary collisions and greater potential for shower/storm
development (PoPs around 50 percent) toward the coast, especially
across Brevard County and the Treasure Coast.

A few stronger storms may result before this activity pushes
offshore through late afternoon/early evening, producing strong
wind gusts up to 40-50 mph, frequent lightning strikes, small
hail and locally heavy downpours. As this activity pushes off the
coast this evening, a lingering chance for showers and isolated
storms will remain across northern portions of central Florida as
deep moisture and trough axis aloft may lead to redeveloping
convection overnight. Lows will range from the low to mid 70s.

Modified Previous Discussion...

Sun-Mon...Weak troughing aloft over the southeast U.S. will slowly
push south across the FL peninsula during this period. This will
gradually allow for deeper moisture to overspread most of east
central FL, but it will be a gradual process, especially south of
Orlando. Increased moisture, surface heating, boundary collisions,
and energy aloft should permit for higher PoPs in the 50-70pct
range on Sunday and around 70pct on Monday for the afternoon and
early evening hours. A moderate steering flow aloft will aid in
keeping the majority of showers and storms on the eastern side of
the peninsula late day. Activity should taper off thru late
evening with some additional convection over the local coastal
waters overnight. Highs in the L-M90s on Sun and U80s to L90s on
Mon. Overnight lows generally in the 70s with conditions humid.

Tue-Sat...The aforementioned weak upper troughing slips into the
southern peninsula on Tue and Wed. The surface ridge axis over the
FL Straits early in the period will advance northward into the
central peninsula thru mid-week. The National Hurricane Center is
watching a trough of low pressure that is forecast to develop over
the Bay of Campech in the SW GOMEX. This feature could have tropical
implications and is expected to drift slowly northward thru late
week, but differences in medium range models exist in placement and
timing this far out. Higher PoPs continue (around 60pct) on Tue
and Wed, then due to uncertainty into late week (perhaps drier
air) will keep scattered showers and lightning storms in the
forecast until things become a bit clearer. Mainly afternoon and
evening activity will be the result of local sea breeze
interactions and diurnal effects. Highs will be in the U80s to
L90s with lows in the L-M70s.

&&

.AVIATION...Deep layer westerly flow will push isolated showers
and storms toward the east coast into late afternoon. The presence
of a quasi-stationary east coast breeze boundary along the
immediate east coast should be the primary focus for development
of additional showers and scattered storms late this afternoon
into evening. Terminals along the east coast have a period of TS
mentioned while reserving the possibility of later amendments for
sky and visibility reduction below VFR through nightfall based on
development of storms. Activity should be largely east of the
coast after 01Z. On Sunday, another round of rather early showers
and a few storms is indicated as early as mid-morning with an
increasingly favorable setup for scattered to numerous storms
developing by afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Tonight...Isolated to scattered offshore moving storms producing
gusty winds and occasional to frequent lightning strikes will be
the main hazard to boaters from late afternoon through this
evening. Small craft will also need to exercise caution if
venturing into the offshore waters of Volusia and Brevard counties
this evening as S/SW winds briefly increase up to 15-20 knots.
Otherwise, wind speeds will range around 10-15 knots as winds
continue to veer to the W/SW overnight, with seas 2-3 feet
nearshore and up to 3-4 feet offshore.

Sun-Wed...(Previous) Weak troughing over the region will keep an
offshore steering flow for afternoon/evening lightning storms
(some strong) across ECFL. Mariners should keep an eye to the sky
westward and seek safe harbor ahead of approaching storms. There
will remain a 10- 15 kt SW/W component of wind into mid-week, but
occasional 15-20 kt winds for a short time may be possible late
afternoon/evening on a couple of days. Seas generally 1-3 ft, but
could approach 4 ft well offshore Cape northward from time to
time. Winds and seas locally higher invof storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  91  72  88 /  30  70  50  70
MCO  74  92  74  90 /  20  60  40  70
MLB  74  93  74  91 /  30  60  30  70
VRB  73  93  72  91 /  40  50  30  70
LEE  76  89  74  87 /  30  70  50  70
SFB  76  91  74  90 /  20  70  50  70
ORL  76  92  76  91 /  20  60  40  70
FPR  72  93  72  91 /  40  50  30  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Weitlich/Watson/Pendergrast



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