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000
FXUS62 KMLB 251924
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
324 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Currently-Tonight...Showers and storms will continue to increase
across east central Florida through the afternoon, with greatest
coverage of this activity still expected south of a line from
Orlando to the Cape where greatest moisture exists. Locally heavy
rainfall will continue to be possible across these southern areas,
especially along the Treasure Coast, with any repeated rounds of
showers or slow moving storms forming off of a developing sea
breeze. Amounts up to 1-2 inches with localized higher totals of 3-4
inches will continue to be possible for this area, especially Martin
and St. Lucie counties.

Convection will gradually wind down after sunset, with PoPs
decreasing to 30-50 percent this evening from Osceola and southern
Brevard counties southward, and areas north of Orlando looking to
remain dry into tonight. Past midnight, will then only keep a slight
chance for showers brushing the coast of St. Lucie and Martin
counties, as they move northward across the coastal waters. Stratus
and patchy fog look to develop across the interior later tonight,
with a few locations seeing limited visibilities less than a mile
toward and northwest of the I-4 corridor by daybreak Monday. Lows
will fall into the low 70s tonight.

Modified Previous Discussion...

Mon-Wed...Mid level trough axis shifts farther east of the Florida
and Mid-Atlantic coast as ridge aloft builds eastward across the
region and eventually east of Florida into mid week.  As ridge
shifts east, T.S. Zeta will move northwest into the southern Gulf of
Mexico, strengthening into a hurricane as it then eventually moves
northward into the central Gulf and toward the northern Gulf coast
by mid week. In the lower levels, an E/SE flow will develop Mon
between "Zeta" to our SW and high pressure to the north and continue
thru midweek. There will be some lingering moisture across the
southern half of east central Florida (Okeechobee/Treasure coast) on
Monday where rain chances will remain 40-50 percent. But relatively
drier air moving in Tue-Wed will lower rain chances areawide to 20-
30 percent across much of the region. It will remain warm through
the period, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the low
to mid 70s.

Thu-Sat...Decent agreement in the models continues into late week,
with upper ridging shifting eastward as upper troughing develops
over the eastern CONUS. This will allow a cool front to push through
central Florida on Friday. Rain chances remain rather low even with
this frontal passage, with PoPs no more than 20-30 percent at this
time. GFS/ECMWF MOS guidance has come into a little better
agreement, showing min temps as low as the 60s into Sat morning.
However, winds then look to quickly veer onshore into early this
weekend, which will likely limit any drying or cooling behind the
front. Highs still forecast in the low to mid 80s on Saturday, with
isolated to scattered onshore moving showers possible through the
weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...Greatest coverage of showers and storms still expected
to remain south of a line from KMCO/KISM to KTIX. Tempo IFR/MVFR
conditions expected with any of this activity through the remainder
of the afternoon and into the evening. Rain chances should then
largely end after midnight, with only a slight chance for a few
showers moving northward along the Treasure Coast. Model guidance
still giving support for stratus and patchy fog developing across
the interior late tonight, so have included tempo reductions in
cig/vis for inland TAF sites at this time between 10-13Z.

Any fog/stratus will break up and lift into early Monday morning,
with showers and isolated storms redeveloping into the afternoon,
producing tempo IFR/MVFR conditions.


&&

.MARINE...

Tonight...Poor boating conditions will persist over much of the
waters into this evening and offshore overnight as seas linger up to
6 feet. S/SE winds around 10-15 knots will continue south of the
Cape this evening, with speeds decreasing late tonight. Will
maintain exercise caution headlines for the adjacent Atlantic,
except nearshore Volusia waters this evening, with these headlines
then likely to continue offshore after midnight.

Mon-Thu...E/SE winds up to 10-15 knots will generally prevail over
the waters through Wed, becoming more southerly Thursday as Atlc
ridge axis slips south of the local waters ahead of a cold front.
Seas on Monday morning will subside and remain around 3-5 feet into
early-mid week.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The latest forecast has the Saint Johns River at Astor continuing
a slow decrease within Minor Flood Stage through the upcoming
week. Elsewhere, the Saint Johns River at Sanford and near Lake
Harney is forecast to stay within Action Stage, while at DeLand
the river is forecast to continue below Action Stage. Refer to
daily Flood Statements and River Statements from NWS Melbourne for
the latest river levels and forecasts.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  85  73  87 /  10  20  20  30
MCO  72  88  74  89 /  20  30  10  30
MLB  73  86  75  88 /  30  40  20  20
VRB  72  87  75  88 /  30  40  20  20
LEE  71  88  73  89 /  10  30  10  40
SFB  71  87  74  89 /  10  30  20  30
ORL  73  88  75  89 /  10  30  10  30
FPR  71  86  74  87 /  40  40  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Weitlich/Leahy