Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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629 FXUS64 KOUN 081115 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 615 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 An upper low over the U.S. Northern & Central HigH Plains is still on track for pushing a surface low followed by a Pacific cold front/surface boundary across our area, as surface observations by early morning showing the front extending from Dodge City to Slapout to north of Amarillo and will be starting its push into northwest Oklahoma. Already starting to see surface moisture return ahead of the front from the southerly flow enhanced by a strong low-level jet overhead, as mesonet observations are showing a 7-10 degree dewpoint increase across southcentral through southeast Oklahoma in the last hour with near 70 degree dewpoints already up to the Red River in southeast Oklahoma. Expecting that moisture transport to continue through the rest of this morning and especially into southeast Oklahoma as the low-level jet maxima shifts eastward while the surface boundary continues pushing across the western half of our CWA. As far as our pattern aloft, we`ll remain well east of a positively tilted large amplitude upper trough over the entire western half of the country. Cooler air through that trough over a very moist southeast Oklahoma will rapidly destabilize the environment with models suggesting at least strong to moderate CAPE values with sufficient 0-6 km shear for potential storms to organize. Although our southeast CWA will see afternoon sun, forecast soundings suggest a mid-level cap will hold for any pre- frontal convection, but will more likely see convection trigger along the surface boundary in the afternoon/late afternoon hours. A consensus of models (including the RAP & HRRR) suggest the surface front will be up to I-35 by noontime and pushing into southeast Oklahoma during the afternoon hours although the latest run of the HRRR starts convective initiation late afternoon just southeast of our CWA. Although if storms develop they will likely be severe but most of that convection may be in farther southeast Oklahoma. However, will keep very low POPs (20%) across our far southeast CWA for this afternoon and into the early evening depending on the location of the surface front at that time. Should any storms initiate they could become severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts as the main severe hazards with a very low potential for a tornado to spawn up especially as the low-level jet continues shifting eastward with low-lever shear weakening. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 For Thursday afternoon, do have low storm POPs returning across southeast Oklahoma. Expecting the frontal boundary to have pushed into to central/northcentral Texas where severe storms are more likely to initiate. However, models suggest our upper trough may expel a mid-level shortwave with an embedded vort-max along the Red River so any storms that develop would be more elevated while weak MUCAPE values/instability would keep them below severe as any severe would be south of the Red River. Beyond Thursday, the negatively tilted trough persists across the western U.S. with an upper low closing over the Southwest Region and briefly stalling/cutting off from the main upper jet flow through Friday before getting recaptured and start digging across the southwest and entering the Southern Plains by Sunday. After a surface high moves through on Saturday, models suggest only a weak returning southerly flow (and moisture return) on Sunday into early next week with no surface fronts coming in with this system so the severe risk looks fairly low. However still could still see a "wet" trend starting Sunday as this next system moves in with storm POPs on Sunday into early next week widespread across our CWA. As far as temperatures in the long term, we`ll see climatically normal temperatures through the daytime with cooler (50s) drier nights. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 MVFR cigs/vis will continue across portions of northern/central/southern Oklahoma this morning amidst areas of stratus. VFR conditions will emerge at all terminals (latest for areas furthest south/east) as a cold front advances into eastern Oklahoma by the early afternoon. Winds will shift from southerly to westerly then northwesterly as frontal passage occurs. Otherwise, low probability mention (PROB30 group) of thunderstorms at KDUA by ~21-22 UTC this evening. Safe travels! Ungar && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 81 55 77 52 / 10 0 0 0 Hobart OK 84 54 79 51 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 86 58 79 55 / 0 0 10 0 Gage OK 81 48 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 79 50 76 50 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 89 62 82 58 / 20 20 20 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....68 AVIATION...34