Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 172054

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
354 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Moisture is returning already from the south, resulting in a few
showers and isolated thunderstorms in southern Oklahoma and
western north Texas. Disorganized convection is expected to
continue through Sunday afternoon, until a much more substantial
wave aloft arrives by Sunday evening. This will bring an increased
chance of stronger storms, particularly over northwest Oklahoma,
where elevated storms will be supported by strong vertical shear.
For a few hours, this area will have an increased risk of hail,
and possibly strong winds.

At the same time, much drier air will sweep east into the
southwest and west-central parts of Oklahoma, along with western
north Texas. The dry, windy conditions will result in a rapid
deterioration in fire weather conditions. A Fire Weather Watch is
included in this forecast, and it tentatively goes through the
night. There is a possibility that relative humidities will
increase enough to mitigate the risk, and winds may not be quite
strong enough to warrant the fire headlines, which is why this is
a Watch, and not a Warning.

After the storm system moves away late Sunday night/early Monday,
cooler and breezy conditions will arrive in Oklahoma and north
Texas. We will reevaluate fire weather conditions for that event
tomorrow, and it is possible that fire weather headlines will be
needed again...although the expected temperatures and relative
humdities will limit the fire weather potential quite a bit.

A quiet period will follow from Tuesday through Thursday, with
mild temperatures and little chance of precipitation.

Another strong storm system is forecast to approach from the west
on Friday, followed by cooler conditions on Saturday, and perhaps
a return of moisture/storm chances on Sunday. That far out, the
model discrepancies make a very large difference in the forecast
of actual weather conditions, meaning we could see anything from
nothing of consequence to a fairly substantial severe weather
event Friday and Sunday. It appears at this time that the most
likely outcome is a modest amount of convection, similar to what
is expected tomorrow.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 112 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/


Low-level moisture will arrive from the south early Sunday and
bring MVFR ceilings Sunday morning over much of central and
southern Oklahoma. A chance for showers will arrive with the

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1053 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/

Temperature rises were slowed a bit in northern Oklahoma based on
observations across that area of mild cold advection, but mostly
sunny conditions should still allow forecast maximum temperatures
there today. Otherwise, wind speeds were kept higher through early
afternoon before decreasing later in the day, and the cloud
forecast was adjusted for increasing cirrus over the southern half
of Oklahoma.


Oklahoma City OK  47  67  48  59 /  10  40  20  10
Hobart OK         47  71  49  61 /  10  20  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  52  76  51  67 /  10  20   0   0
Gage OK           40  69  44  50 /   0  30  30  20
Ponca City OK     40  60  45  55 /  10  60  60  20
Durant OK         55  72  51  73 /  30  50  20   0


OK...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning
     for OKZ009-014-016-021-022-033>037.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning
     for TXZ083>089.



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