Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 181050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
550 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018



For the 12z TAFs:

Showers and thunderstorms near southwest TAF sites (SPS/LAW) should
continue to decrease over the next couple of hours, and may
approach OKC/OUN early this morning. Redevelopment is expected
across the panhandles late today and this convection will move
eastward possibly affecting WWR and CSM this evening. Convection
could reach other TAF sites late this evening or overnight, but
confidence was too low for inclusion at this time. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018/

Main concerns are chance of severe storms today and Saturday.

Overnight convection is expected to continue to gradually
dissipate, but will leave a slight chance this morning of some
lingering activity. However much of the area is expected to remain
dry through the day.

By this afternoon, we will have another shortwave approaching the
southern/central Plains. Sufficient heating and convergence along
the dryline should result in storms developing across the central
Oklahoma and Texas panhandles around 4 or 5 pm this afternoon.
These storms will then move east and northeast into western
sections of the state during the evening hours. Modest amounts of
instability and favorable wind fields are expected to result in
severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. An
isolated tornado or two, might be possible as we move into the
evening hours with the backing of the surface winds to go along
with the development of the LLJ and if storms can aid in lowering
LCLs across western Oklahoma, especially if any storm can remain
discrete. Storms should weaken as they approach central sections
of the state by late evening.

Like Friday, much of Saturday looks dry. Models have slowed the
southward progression of the cold front that has been advertised
for the last several days until later Saturday night/Sunday
morning. However, could see a few storms develop along and east of
the dryline across western/southwest Oklahoma into west Texas.
These would pose a severe threat. Additional thunderstorms would
be possible later Saturday evening along the front across northern
Oklahoma with a threat of severe weather as well.

Front then stalls and retreats back north toward the Kansas
border Sunday afternoon and could be a focus for storm development
Sunday afternoon.

Through much of next week, models show that the area remains on
the edge of southwest flow. Several weak mid-level waves brush the
southern Plains, which will keep a chance of daily convection
across the area. Sufficient instability remains in place that
isolated severe storms would be possible just about every day, but
any organized higher-end severe weather risk would remain rather


Oklahoma City OK  90  70  91  65 /  20  20  10  30
Hobart OK         94  69  92  64 /  10  30  20  50
Wichita Falls TX  95  71  94  67 /  10  20  10  30
Gage OK           91  62  90  57 /  20  30  20  40
Ponca City OK     88  69  92  62 /  10  20  10  40
Durant OK         91  69  89  68 /  20  10   0  20




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