Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 210203 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
903 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Removed rain chances tonight across northern Oklahoma.
Increased cloud cover tonight across Oklahoma and north Texas.


Cool and dry weather with light surface winds can be expected
for the rest of tonight.

Radar echoes have significantly diminished across northern
Oklahoma and southern Kansas in the past two hours with the loss
of daytime heating. Do not think redevelopment of precipitation
will occur tonight.

Abundant mid and high level cloud has moved into parts of Oklahoma
and north Texas. Thus, increased cloud cover to account for this.

Forecast lows tonight mainly in the 30s appear to be on track.
This may result in some frost, especially in rural locations
north of a Gage to Guthrie to Atoka line where surface dewpoints
are generally a bit higher, in the mid to upper 30s as of 9 pm.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 643 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018/

VFR conditions will persist through Wednesday afternoon.
A light and variable wind is expected tonight. On Wednesday, a
light south and southeast wind will become gusty during the late
morning and afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 509 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018/

Added 10% isolated rain shower mention north of a Cheyenne to
Perry line now through 8 pm CDT this evening.

Latest radars indicated light echoes across southwestern Kansas
and far northwestern Oklahoma due to sufficient heating and mid
level moisture with unusually cold mid levels of the atmosphere
(-8C at 700 mb and -22C at 500 mb) in place. Most, if not all, of
this activity was not reaching the ground due to considerable
sublimation/evaporation beneath cloud bases 6000-10000 ft AGL due
to abundant low level dry air. However, believe a few locations
in northwestern Oklahoma may get a few hundredths of an inch of
rainfall from this activity as well as perhaps brief gusty winds
up to 40 mph. Don`t think thunder will occur as latest RAP13
model soundings depicted less than 100 J/kg of MUCAPE.
This activity should quickly diminish with the loss of
daytime heating between 7 and 8 pm this evening.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018/

Surface high pressure and ridging aloft will provide a relatively
quiet weather period for Oklahoma and north Texas into Thursday.
As the surface pressure gradient begins to tighten on Thursday,
south winds will start to increase, and these winds will start to
bring greater amounts of moisture back north.

By Friday, very warm conditions are expected, and dew point
temperatures will be noticeably higher than they are now. I rather
strong capping inversion will be in place, so at this time it
appears that there will be no precipitation in Oklahoma/north
Texas on Friday.

Late Friday night into Saturday will be similarly capped, but the
continuing increase in mid-level moisture may be enough to
generate showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Rain chances
will increase into early next week as the pattern over
Oklahoma/north Texas becomes more complex, with surface fronts and
upper-level waves converging in this area.



Oklahoma City OK  38  68  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         37  69  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  39  71  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           34  68  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     31  65  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         41  69  47  75 /   0   0   0   0




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