Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 261747
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1247 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

The consensus of guidance this morning indicates much less
coverage of convection that previously expected for this
afternoon. Have updated the public grids to lower PoPs and confine
any 25+% PoPs to the Pennyrile. There may not be much of anything
this afternoon.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

A weak mid/upper-level trough will linger over the forecast area
through the holiday weekend, as subtropical storm Alberto moves
north through the Gulf of Mexico and sets its sites on the
northern Gulf Coast. The main focus for mainly diurnal scattered
thunderstorms will lie east of this trof axis, generally over
western KY and sw IN, with only slight chances farther north and
west. Weak flow through the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere
will continue, so a primary concern will continue to be with
localized torrential rainfall and flooding as PWATS (around 1.8")
continue up close to the 99th percentile for this time of year.
Of course, deadly lightning will also be a primary concern, and a
few isolated downbursts of gusty winds will also be possible.

It will remain hot and humid outside of thunderstorm outflows
through the short term. Afternoon heat indices in the mid and
upper 90s will be commonplace Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

The recently named subtropical storm Alberto, will be the main focus
for weather in our area early next week. By 12Z Tuesday, the
remnants of Alberto will be heading north into Mississippi and
Alabama. As this occurs, chances for rain will continue to spread
north across the area with the highest chances across the
southeastern counties (i.e. western KY area). By Tuesday night, the
system will start lifting northeast across our region. Best chances
Tuesday evening will again be across western KY. Overnight, the axis
of highest POPs will shift to areas east of the Mississippi, namely
southern IL (along and east of I-57), west KY and southwest IN.
However, the ECMWF and GFS ensemble mean suggests the higher QPF in
the opposite direction due to the farther south and west upper low
placement. Consensus though over the past few days has been the
former solution versus the latter, so will hedge higher POPs in the
east for overnight Tuesday.

On Wednesday, with the upper system departing, the best chances of
rain will continue to be in our eastern counties so will continue
with likely POPs in our far eastern sections. Locally heavy
rainfall will be likely too (with PWATS up close to 1.75"). Again,
the slower ECMWF and GFS ensemble mean suggest that higher QPF
may extend further west as well. Will continue with low end chance
POPs for now for areas further west.

Beyond that, the weather is a bit unsettled as the upper flow
becomes kind of zonal. The 00Z GFS seems a bit overdone, as per
usual but the Canadian and to some extent the ECWMF, indicate at
least a small chance for more convection on Thursday. The upper flow
becomes more northwesterly toward the end of the week and there
could be yet another ripple in the flow to help initiate more
precipitation. Keeping POPs low for now though.

Temperatures will be tempered a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday with
the clouds and precipitation. However, we will warm up quickly
toward the end of the week with highs in the lower 90s expected by
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

MVFR ceilings were more prevalent this morning than expected, and
are still hanging around KPAH and KOWB. These should quickly climb
to VFR levels this afternoon, but a lower VFR ceiling may prevail
at KOWB for much of the afternoon. Outside of west Kentucky, the
cu should be more scattered. With little coverage of convection
expected this afternoon, the TAFs are now dry. KOWB will have the
best chance this afternoon, but it is too low to mention in the
forecast. Clearing skies and nearly calm winds will create a
decent environment for fog development tonight. Added in some
reduction to visibility at all sites, but did not go lower than
MVFR at this point. IFR or lower fog cannot be ruled out.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DRS


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