Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 251739

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1239 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

The CAM guidance has not been kind so far today. This midday
convective development is earlier and has more coverage than
anticipated even for later this afternoon. Expect the showers and
storms to bounce around on outflows for much of the afternoon. A
line has developed to west of our region over Missouri and it
should slowly progress through southeast Missouri and southwest
Illinois through the afternoon. All CAM guidance wipes it out
by sunset as it reaches west Kentucky. This early scattered
development may rob that line of needed instability, so it may not
hold together as much as previously expected based on CAM

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Mid tropospheric ridging will continue to break down over the next
24 hours, depicted by 50 meter height falls and the evolution of a
trof over the Great Lakes, extending south across the Mississippi
Valley. Return flow combined with embedded disturbances aloft will
result in a chance of convection today through Saturday. Better
moisture moves east, drying us out Saturday night. Small chance
of convection Sunday across the southeast 1/2 of our CWFA.
Temperatures will remain above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

We continue to track the differing solutions of a developing
tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Models are
still trying to obtain a beat on this system, but by 12Z Monday, the
upper level low is forecast to be near Mobile Bay. The forecast for
Memorial Day will hinge on how quickly this system moves northward
through the day. Right now, it appears as though the morning should
be free of any rain. However, by afternoon, indications are that the
system could be far enough north to warrant a low chance for storms
across at least west KY and maybe southwest moisture spirals
around the northern periphery of the upper low.

The GFS appears to be the most aggressive in lifting the system
northward Monday night. The ECMWF/Canadian keep the system farther
south in either southeast MS or southern AL through 12Z Tuesday.
This would effectively keep the area mainly dry Monday night.

On Tuesday, as the slower models finally lift the system far enough
north to impact our area, we will see a better chance for some
precipitation. However, it still appears as though west KY will have
the best chances given the current model guidance. This trend will
continue into Tuesday night as well.

By Wednesday, the main impact areas should remain the eastern and/or
southeastern sections of the CWA. Again, POPs will remain below the
likely category for most areas but will maintain higher POPs in
these aforementioned locations. By Wednesday night, we will see the
system finally moving east and lingering POPs are needed in our far
eastern counties. However, the upper flow continues to look
unsettled and therefore low POPs will be needed even as we head into
Wednesday night and Thursday.

High temperatures will generally be in the mid to upper 80s on most
days, cooler where more widespread cloudiness and precipitation ends
up obviously, but we will further tailor the temp forecast as we
gain a better idea on the movement of this tropical system. However,
Memorial Day does look pretty warm and humid with heat index values
running between 90-95 degrees.


Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

The TAFs are basically a convective forecast today. KPAH and KCGI
have a good chance of experiencing a TSRA this afternoon, while
KEVV and KOWB may stay just east of the activity today. The
convection should die off by sunset, and then we will be watching
for new development mainly in the east late Saturday morning. KEVV
and KOWB will be the most likely to see a TSRA Saturday. If a site
gets significant rainfall this afternoon, some fog potential will
exist late tonight if skies can clear out sufficiently. Too much
uncertainty to add to the forecast at this time.




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