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000
FXUS65 KPUB 240525
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1125 PM MDT Wed May 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 757 PM MDT Wed May 23 2018

Updated to allow the red flag warning for the San Luis Valley
to expire at 8 pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Wed May 23 2018

Thunderstorms will continue to generate along and east of the
surface trof axis across the southeast plains through this evening.
To the east of this axis which roughly runs from KTAD to KLHX to
KLIC, dew points will run in the 40s to around 50 with MLCape values
up to 2000 j/kg per SPC MesoAnalysis.  Deep layer shears are running
on the light side for organized severe thunderstorms, generally in
the 20-30 kt range, but given the sufficient CAPE a strong to severe
storm or two will be possible across the far eastern plains through
the evening.  HRRR runs continue to suggest activity will be very
isolated in coverage with Kiowa county having the best chance. To
the west of the surface trof axis, dew points have been falling into
the teens and 20s with gusty southwest winds resulting in critical
fire weather conditions across the San Luis Valley.  This will
continue through the early evening until winds subside.

With clearing skies and dry surface dew points, tonight should be on
the cool side again across the mountains and valleys and have leaned
temperatures on the low side of guidance.  Southeast plains should
see lows in the 50s to around 60. Could be some lingering showers
across the far southeast corner of the plains overnight, though high
res models seem to be backing off on this potential.

For Thursday, it will be dry and hot across the district.  Far
southeast plains could see a stray storm or two, but chances look
even lower than today.  Dew points will fall off into the teens and
20s across the I-25 corridor westward. This will lead to afternoon
humidity levels below 15 percent.  However winds will be lighter so
no additional fire weather highlights expected. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Wed May 23 2018

Thursday night-Saturday...Upper level ridging continues to build
across the Rockies through the early holiday weekend, as Eastern
Pacific energy translates across the West Coast and develops a
closed upper low across the Great Basin on Saturday. This pattern
supports warm and mainly dry weather, with temperatures expected to
remain well above late spring norms, with highs in the mid 80s to
mid 90s across the lower elevations, and mainly in the 60s and 70s
across the higher terrain. As for precipitation, can`t totally rule
out some high based convection in the afternoon and early evening
hours over the higher terrain, though soundings support mainly virga
and gusty winds.

Sunday-Wednesday...Latest models remain consistent in increasing
southwest flow aloft across the region, as the Great Basin upper
low slowly weakens as it ejects north and west across the Northern
Rockies through early next week. Models do differ on how far east
the system moves before lifting north and west, though generally
this pattern suggests mainly dry, warm and breezy conditions
across the area with temperatures expected to stay above seasonal
levels, in the 80s and 90s across the lower elevations and mainly
60s and 70s across the higher terrain, through the period. Pattern
also leads to increasing fire danger with the potential for
critical fire weather conditions across portions of the South
Central and Southeast Colorado, especially Sunday and Monday.
Pattern also support the potential for strong to severe convection
across the far Southeast Plains Sunday and Monday with possible
dryline interaction, along with better chances of convection
across the eastern mountains and plains into the middle of next
week, as low level moisture increases behind the passing systems
backdoor cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1123 PM MDT Wed May 23 2018

VFR conditions expected at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. S-SW winds
will increase for a period Thu afternoon, with gust to around 20
kts likely at all terminals.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN