583
FXUS65 KPUB 300906
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
306 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The start of the work week will bring slightly cooler
  temperatures and daily storms over the higher terrain. The
  plains will remain slightly drier Monday-Tuesday.

- Not much change in day-to-day weather during the long term
  forecast period.

- Generally seasonable temps with mainly dry plains and scattered
  storms mtns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Today and Tonight...

Temperatures across the region will be a bit cooler today, with 70s-
80s over most of our forecast area. Looking aloft, high pressure
continues to build in from the southwest as yesterday`s system moves
off to the east. Breezy and consistent easterly flow will be present
across the eastern plains throughout most of the day, allowing for
moist air to move back to the mountains/plains interface. Showers
and thunderstorms will form shortly after midday, largely over the
mountains. Though models show 800-1000 J/kg along and just west of
the I-25 corridor, currently outlooks only show general
thunderstorms. Flow aloft will be weak beneath the building high,
and wind shear will be minimal, leading to weaker, slow-moving
storms. As such, our main concern for today will be flash flooding
over burn scars and other high-risk areas from repeated rounds of
moderate to heavy rainfall. Currently, portions of south-central
Colorado are under a marginal outlook for excessive rainfall today.
A few scattered showers and storms may also move onto the plains
later on in the evening, but should generally stay on the weaker
side and dissipate before moving too far east.

Tuesday...

Temperatures will warm slightly on Tuesday, with slightly drier
conditions over the plains as high pressure continues to build in
overhead. Highs will reach the mid-high 80s over most of the plains,
while winds at the surface turn a bit more southerly. Monsoon
moisture will keep moving into the mountains, allowing for scattered
to widespread showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Given
the weak flow aloft, another day of slow-moving storms with the
potential for heavy rain. The plains should remain a bit drier,
though southerly flow may bring in enough moisture for some isolated
afternoon convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Not all that much change is anticipated in the overall weather
pattern during the long term period. General midlevel troughieness
over the West Coast and ridging over the central plains will keep a
generally somewhat moister pattern over the higher terrain while the
plains will remain mostly dry this week into the July 4 Holiday
weekend and beyond. Expect max temps in the U80s to M90 plains, with
temps in the 70s mtns. Valleys should see temps in the L/M80s. At
this time, it appears the wettest day will be this upcoming Thursday
over the higher terrain. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to push south and east
across the plains through the evening hours, with VFR conditions
and generally light diurnally driven wind regimes expected at
COS, PUB and ALS through the overnight hours. Another passing
front across the plains will bring breezy north to northeast
winds at COS and PUB early Monday morning, with low VFR cigs
sct/bkn040-060 developing at COS and PUB through the late
morning and early afternoon as winds go easterly upslope once
again. With weak northerly flow aloft, there will be low
chances of seeing thunderstorms at COS and PUB in the late
afternoon and will not include in tafs attm.

Clearing skies and light diurnal winds expected at ALS through
the overnight hours. There will be better chances of showers
and storms at the terminal tomorrow afternoon and included
PROB30 group through the early evening. Storms will be slow
moving and capable of producing heavy rain, with MVFR and brief
IFR conditions possible with storms.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MW