930
FXUS65 KPUB 071737
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1137 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms will be possible today across the
  southeast plains.

- Warming and drying trend into the middle of the week.

- Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected for much of the
  week and through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 322 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Current water vapor and upper air analysis continues to indicate
modest westerly flow aloft across the region with upper high pressure
located across the Desert Southwest into southwestern New Mexico,
as short wave energy translates across the faster zonal flow across
the Northern Tier at this time. Blended total water vapor imagery
continues to indicate PWATs running 120-150 percent of normal across
the Northern Rockies into eastern Colorado and the High Plains, with
increased available moisture starting to circulate under the upper
high into western New Mexico at this time. Regional radars as of 1
am are indicating scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms
moving east across the southeast plains, with stratus starting to fill
in across the southeast mtns and into the mid and upper Arkansas
River valley at this time. Temperatures were in the mid 50s to lower
60s across the plains and in the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain.

Latest model data supports flow aloft becoming more northwest through
tonight, as the upper high builds north to south of the Four Corners
region as the latest Northern Tier short wave digs down across the
Northern Rockies and into the Northern High Plains.

With a similar set up to yesterday, south to southeast low level flow
will keep low level moisture in place and dew pts in the upper 40s to
upper 50s and progged cape of 1500-2000 j/kg, highest across the far
southeast plains and into northeast Colorado this afternoon. With the
main short wave further north, shear aloft does not look as strong as
yesterday. However, with 25 to 35 kts of bulk shear, strongest
across the northern portions of the southeast plains, there will again
be the potential for strong to severe storms, producing gusty winds of
60 to 70 mph and hail of 1 to 2 inches in diameter. The latest SPC
outlook has areas east of the I-25 Corridor a slight risk, with the
marginal risk back across the eastern mtns and into the I-25 Corridor.
Convection initiation will again be across the higher terrain, with
storms moving east south east into a more unstable environment across
the far southeast plains. Further West, there will be a slight increase
in available moisture to support scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms spreading over and near the higher terrain. These storms
will be more high based with gusty outflow winds being the main threat.
Temperatures will again be near to slightly above seasonal readings in
the upper 80s to mid 90s across the plains, in the 60s and 70s across
the higher terrain and into the mid 80s across the high mtn valleys,
with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s across the plains and mainly 30s and
40s across the higher terrain.

Warmer and drier conditions remain in the offing for Tuesday, as the upper
high continues to slowly drift north into south central Colorado. There
will be enough residual moisture to support more isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening storms, through the potential for strong to marginally
severe storms will remain in place across the southeast plains, with marginal
shear profiles of 25-30kts. Temperatures on Tuesday will be slightly warmer
than today.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 322 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Tuesday Night - Wednesday: For part of the midweek period, active
weather continues for south central and southeastern Colorado.
Synoptically, ridging will be in place over the region. While
subsidence will be in place with this feature, diurnal upsloping,
along with forcing along any boundaries, is expected to be in place.
With some forcing mechanisms, and residual moisture in place from
previous day`s convection, showers and thunderstorms are expected to
blossom late each afternoon and persist through the evening hours,
before finally dissipating during the overnight hours. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage is expected to be greatest along and east of
the eastern mountains, where moisture content will be best. Like the
past several days, a couple of strong to severe storms will be
possible each day, particularly Tuesday evening, with wind gusts
around 60 mph being the primary hazard given high bases and large
DCAPE values, though frequent lightning, hail, and periods of heavy
rain will also be possible with any stronger storms. Otherwise,
periods of increased cloud cover are anticipated during the
afternoon and evening hours, with relatively light winds expected
through this period. For temperatures, above seasonal values are
expected for much of south central and southeastern Colorado.

Thursday - Sunday: For the late half of the week and through the
weekend, active weather continues for south central and southeastern
Colorado, though with a pattern change. The aforementioned ridge in
place will flatten Thursday, with westerly to northwesterly flow
prevailing over the area after. This pattern will bring a slight
increase in forcing, though richer moisture will still remain mostly
limited to the eastern plains. Still, with the uptick in forcing,
and what moisture is in place, daily showers and thunderstorms are
still anticipated, with the greatest coverage remaining along the
mountains where forcing will be maximized. Beyond all of that, winds
are expected to become more breezy given the increased flow
overhead, along with the daily increase in afternoon and evening
cloud cover. As for temperatures, Thursday and Friday will be the
warmest days, with above seasonal temperatures expected. Saturday
and Sunday a cool down back to around seasonal is anticipated given
a cold front passage late Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Isolated convection firing over the higher terrain as of midday, and
today looks to be another active day with respect to storm activity.
VFR conditions anticipated for most locations through much of the
next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and
KALS. However, strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are
possible across much of the southeast plains this afternoon and
evening, primarily affecting KCOS and KPUB with intermittent MVFR to
even IFR conditions due to lowered vsby and CIGS. Storm activity is
expected to persist until near midnight. Main threats from stronger
storms today will be gusty outflow winds of 50-60 kts, hail 1 to 2
inches in diameter, brief periods of heavy rain and frequent cloud
to ground lightning.

KCOS & KPUB: PROB30 for -TSRA, variable gusts to 35 kts and lowering
CIGS between 21z-02z.

KALS: Increasing W-SW surface winds 20z-03z with gusts to 21 kts,
then PROB30 for -TSRA and variable gusts to 28 kts for 21z-24z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MOORE