Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 181035
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
435 AM MDT Fri May 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 433 AM MDT Fri May 18 2018

...A few severe storms possible today mainly north of US-50...

Currently...

Moisture has returned to most of the plains this morning as dewpts
in the 50s were noted across most of the plains generally east of I-
25. A large MCS was noted over NE and this has pushed a large
outflow boundary southward across the plains. Gusty north winds were
occurring behind this boundary.

On the regional scale, a well defined shortwave trough was over
Utah, vcnty Salt Lake City and it was progressing east.

Today...

Active day is likely across the region as shortwave to our west will
continue east and will allow for cyclogenesis to occur over  the
southeast plains. This will continue to draw low level moisture
eastward north of the low. This moisture, combined with cooling
aloft will allow for CAPE values of ~2500 J/kg to develop over the
plains. the best instability is expected to occur north of the low,
mainly north of Highway 50. Given 30-40 knots of shear over the
region, storms which develop today will likely become severe, with
large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible. Based on
current data, best tornado threat will be just east of the surface
low along the surface boundary, roughly over the greater Kiowa
county region. Storms will likely initiate around 3 pm in the Pikes
Peak region and then move east. SPC has area in slight risk with a
2% Tor prob over parts of the CO Plains.

South of the low, gusty dry southerly winds are expected and this
will cause critical fire weather conditions to develop. For this
reason a Red Flag warning has been issued for Baca and eastern Las
Animas counties.

Otherwise a warm day is expected over the region with highs in the
80s most of the plains...with 70s in the valleys and 40s and 50s
over the mtns.

Tonight...

Surface low will move east and gusty northwesterly winds will
develop on the backside of the low. This will keep a threat of
showers and storms north of Highway 50 this evening, Drier weather
will move in later tonight.

Temps will cool into the 40s and 50s plains with 30s in the valleys
and 20s mtns. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 433 AM MDT Fri May 18 2018

Saturday and Sunday...Models are holding true to ejecting a
weakening upper low across the Rockies late Fri/early Sat, pushing a
cold front south into eastern CO early Sat morning which will
produce much cooler temps and a greater chance for some widespread
pcpn over the weekend. 2 to 4 inches of new snow is possible Sat
across the higher peaks of the central mts. Expect max temps in
the 60s to around 70F for the high valleys, and 60s to lower 70s
for the plains. The northern half of El Paso County may only warm
into the 50s on Sat.

Monday through Thursday...Another West Coast low pressure trough
moves into the Great Basin starting Mon, allowing warm southwest
flow aloft to develop over the Four Corners through mid-week. Aftn
and evening convection over the higher terrain and Palmer Divide is
expected each day, but should be more isolated in nature. Temps will
warm back up to about 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal normals, with
highs in the 70s for the high valleys. The plains will climb into
the mid 70s to mid 80s for Mon, then the 80s to around 90F for Tue
through Thu. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 433 AM MDT Fri May 18 2018

Main concern will be KCOS as strong, possibly severe convection will
be possible later this afternoon and early evening. Periods of MVFR
are likely with the stronger storms and some hail cannot be ruled
out. Greatest threat of convection will be between 21 and 24 UTC
today. Otherwise expect VFR conditions.

For KPUB, an isolate storm cannot be ruled out this afternoon or
evening. Otherwise expect VFR conditions.

VFR expected next 24h at KALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM MDT this
evening for COZ233-237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH


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