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000
FXUS65 KPUB 261029
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
429 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 429 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2019

The upper level ridge over the area will be flattened as the result
of an upper wave moving through the northern Rockies.  A better
chance for showers and thunderstorms can be expected today.  It
looks like showers and/or tstms could move into the Continental
Divide in the late morning hours, and then increase and spread
eastward across southern CO through the day.  The mtns will see the
highest chances for precip today and into tonight.  The forecast
models suggest that the central mtns will have the best chances for
precip today and tonight, and there could be several inches of snow
accumulation over the high peaks of the Sawatch and Mosquito Ranges,
mainly tonight.  There could be a couple strong storms today over
the far southeast plains where higher dew points are expected.  The
NAM shows a ribbon of CAPE values up to 1700 J/kg and shear values
of around 40 kts.  Strong southwest to west winds are expected today
over much of southern CO, however RH values are expected to be high
enough to limit fire weather concerns.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 429 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2019

Saturday-Saturday night...Moderating west to northwest flow aloft
across the region early Saturday becomes more west to southwest
Saturday afternoon and increases Saturday night, with one embedded
short wave translating across the Northern Rockies and into the High
Plains early Saturday as another stronger Eastern Pacific system
digs across the Pacific Northwest and into the Intermountain West
Saturday night. The first passing system sends a backdoor cold front
across the eastern Plains, with breezy northerly winds 15 to 30 mph
across the Plains early Saturday morning, strongest across the far
southeast Plains, expected to become breezy east to southeast
upslope through the late morning and afternoon hours. Models still
differ on amount of low level moisture return and the resultant
instability, though seem to have focused isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening convection across the eastern mountains as
well as the Palmer Dvd and Raton Mesa, where upslope is maximized.
Further west, isolated orographic showers across the ContDvd,
especially the central mountains, early Saturday gives way to
isolated to scattered high based afternoon and evening convection.
Temperatures on Saturday look to be at to slightly above seasonal
levels, with highs in the 60s and 70s across the lower elevations
and in the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain, with lows in the
30s and 40s, save in the 20s at the peaks.

Sunday-Monday...Moderate to strong westerly flow aloft expected
across the region on Sunday moderates Sunday night and becomes more
southwest through the day Monday, as the Intermountain West system
continues to translate across the Northern Rockies and into the High
Plains Sunday and Sunday night and more energy digs across the
Intermountain West. Strong westerly flow aloft develops lee
troughing across the Plains on Sunday, with breezy southerly flow
developing across the far southeast Plains and gusty west to
southwest winds flow expected across the higher and into the I-25
Corridor. Models indicating mid and upper level moisture increasing
across the area, supporting scattered to numerous showers across the
ContDvd, greatest over the central mountains late Sunday morning
through the evening, with showers spreading east across the Plains
Sunday afternoon and evening. The moist southerly flow across the
far southeast Plains could lead to stronger thunderstorms with the
latest SPC Day 3 outlook indicating marginal severe storms just
north and east of Prowers and Kiowa Counties. Highs on Sunday will
be above seasonal levels, in the 70s and 80s across the plains, and
along with the gusty winds, meteorological Red Flag conditions will
likely be met across portions of the Plains, however fuel status is
not critical at this time, due to green up. The passing wave sends
another, stronger, cold front across the Eastern Plains Sunday
night, with a much cooler airmass expected across the area,
especially the Plains, where highs look to be some 20-25 degrees
cooler than Sunday. Models continue to differ on the speed and
amount of moisture available ahead of more energy moving across the
Great Basin on Monday, and have stayed with blended model pops,
bringing isolated to scattered pops across the area through the day
Monday.

Monday night-Thursday...Latest models support a cool and unsettled
pattern through the middle of next week, though continue to differ
on amount of moisture and timing of southern stream energy lifting
out across Southern California and the Desert Southwest, as well as
its merging with northern stream energy digging across the Great
Basin and lifting out across the Rockies. With the current model
differences, have stayed with the blended solution which brings
scattered to numerous rain and snow showers to the area Monday night
through Tuesday night, with snow levels down to between 6000 and
7000 feet through the late night and early morning hours. More
energy then progged to move across the Rockies later Wednesday and
Thursday, with possible upper level ridging then building across the
region into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 429 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2019

VFR conditions are expected today and tonight at KCOS, KPUB and
KALS.  Gusty west to southwest winds are expected across southern CO
today, with gusts of 20 to 30 kts at the terminal forecast sites.
There will be a chance for showers/tstms this afternoon and evening,
which could bring erratic wind directions and speeds.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28