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000
FXUS65 KPUB 230513
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1013 PM MST Tue Jan 22 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 457 PM MST Tue Jan 22 2019

Updated gridded database for expiration of the Winter Weather
Advisory across the plains. Incorporated latest obs data and
satellite imagery. Remainder of forecast package looks good at
this time. Moore

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 PM MST Tue Jan 22 2019

As the surface low continues to develop further east, the gusty
winds, snowfall, drifting snow, and lower visibilities to the
combination of the previously mentioned variables will dissipate.
The post storm atmosphere will be frigid. Low temperatures are
expected to reach the single digits to lower teens, the San Luis
Valley and the Upper Rio Grande River Valley will be below zero
(Alamosa close to -10 and Creede around -7), the Upper Arkansas
River Valley will reach the single digits, Lake County will be below
zero, and the mountains will be in the single digits.

I am expecting fog development over the San Luis Valley during the
overnight period tonight into tomorrow morning. Post storm sky
clearing and intense radiational cooling should develop a thin fog
layer across the San Luis Valley. The fog layer should dissipate by
the mid morning hours as a stark southeast wind develops across the
valley, mixing and lifting the fog.

Tomorrow`s forecast over the plains, overall, is a fairly simple
forecast. Dry conditions are expected, some gusty westerly winds
over the usual suspect gap flows over the I-25 Corridor (Arkansas
River Valley and the greater Walsenburg region). The tricky part of
the forecast is what the high temperatures will be. The blend of
models that we initialize with had temperatures too warm, they were
picking up on the westerly to northwesterly winds mixing the
atmosphere and therefore warming the surface temperatures. The
models likely didn`t take into account the fresh snowpack that we
acquired from the previous passing low. So the high temperatures
have been adjusted down from 3 degrees to 7 degrees depending on the
region.

Another upper level trough will propagate over the region
beginning tomorrow afternoon. The low will begin producing
snowfall over the Sawatch and Mosquito mountains beginning around
1200 MST tomorrow afternoon. Snowfall amounts through 5PM MST
should accumulate to around 1-3 inches depending on the elevation.
A Winter Weather Advisory has been placed over the Sawatch and
Mosquito Mountains due to the passing low pressure system.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM MST Tue Jan 22 2019

...Several disturbance will bring snow to the central mountains
along with some snow possible over the remainder of the region...

Northwest mid-level low will be the dominant flow pattern during
this extended period. Several disturbances will move through this
flow and will bring a chance of precip to the region. Best chance of
snow will be over the central mtns, but all areas may see some
precip with these events. With the disturbances moving through,
temperatures will be varying quite a bit during this period.

The first disturbance will be on-going at the beginning of this
period. most of the snow initially will occur across the central mtn
region but during the night (Wed nite), some snow showers will be
possible across the Pikes Peak region. Several inches will be
possible over the central mtns (and winter wx hilites are in effect
for this region), and an inch (or maybe two) will be possible over N
El Paso county Thursday morning. Max temps Thursday will be cold and
it will be blustery. Expect highs in the 30s this day plains and 20s
valleys. The activity should decrease Thursday afternoon.

The 2nd disturbance will move across the region late Friday and
early Saturday. Attm, it appears most of the activity with this
disturbance will occur over the central mtns. Not much cool air with
this system so do not expect much of a temperature change once the
system moves through.

For the weekend, it will be mostly dry (except for the c mtns early
Sat). temps Sat on the plains will be in the 40s with 40s and 50s
Sunday. Valleys will generally be in the 20s to low 30s.

A fairly strong system will move across the region early Monday and
this system has the potential to bring more widespread precip over
the region during the day Monday. It will also bring much cooler
weather to the area on this day. Gusty north winds will be likely.

With snow cover over the San Luis Valley floor, some very cold
temperatures will be possible on clear nights. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1008 PM MST Tue Jan 22 2019

KALS...model guidance suggests fog development after 09z tonight
into Wednesday morning with reduced CIGS and VIS to at least MVFR
to IFR. Improving conditions are expected through the afternoon.
Fog will once again be possible after sunset Wednesday evening.

KCOS and KPUB...VFR conditions through the Wednesday afternoon
with passing mid and high level clouds across the area. CIGS will
lower to around 3500 to 5000 feet through Wednesday evening, with
possible showers near KCOS.  Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 11 AM MST
Thursday for COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOZLEY