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796
FXUS65 KPUB 160557
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1157 PM MDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Upper level ridge will move eastward through the Rockies overnight,
then into the High Plains on Monday. As ridge pushes east, lee
surface trough will strengthen along I-25 tonight before moving onto
the eastern plains by late Mon afternoon. Given increasing wly flow
aloft and warming mid-levels, overnight lows should end up milder
than the past few nights at most locations, with mainly 20s/30s
across the region. Concern then turns to increasing winds and high
fire danger on Monday, as low and mid level flow becomes swly ahead
of deepening wrn U.S. upper trough. Red Flag warning already issued
for San Luis Valley, eastern mountains and I-25 corridor looks good,
as dewpoints drop into the teens at most locations Mon afternoon,
while wly winds of 30-40 kts in the mid levels mix to the surface
behind the lee trough.  Eastward extent of stronger winds along the
lower Ark Valley from Pueblo eastward still somewhat of a question,
and will keep areas along and north of the Arkansas out of the
warning for now, as usual spin-up of La Junta area surface flow will
likely weaken winds and turn them more sely in the valley. Max temps
will soar with increasing wind and 700 mb thermal ridge over the
area, with most locations east of the mountains into the 70s/80s by
late day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...Strong wind for Tuesday, then a stronger system arrives Friday...

Monday night and Tuesday...An upper low pressure system moves
onshore across the West Coast Mon evening, shifting winds aloft to a
more southwest direction for Colorado. This system crosses the Great
Basin very early Tue, then crosses the Rockies and the northern half
of Colorado Tue and Tue night. This will bring 3 to 4 inches of new
snow to the higher peaks of Lake and Chaffee Counties, while the
rest of the higher terrain may see up to an inch of new snow. Very
strong w-sw winds sustained at 30-40 mph, with potential gusts of 50
mph, are expected across the forecast area from late morning well
into the evening. Strong winds combined with warm and dry conditions
and existing dry fuels will create critical fire weather conditions,
and decided to go ahead and upgrade the Fire Weather Watch for much
of the area to a Red Flag Warning. The predicted winds are
borderline high wind criteria, but opted to hold off on any sort of
high wind highlight at this time. Look for highs in the 50s for the
high valleys, and 60s and 70s for the plains to near 80F near the
Kansas border.

Wednesday and Thursday...A temporary ridge tracks across the region
midweek, bringing lighter winds and mild but dry conditions. Maximum
temps will warm into the mid 50s to mid 60s for Wed, then 60s to
lower 70s for Thu.

Friday and Saturday...Another upper low pressure system affects the
region next weekend, with snow beginning over western CO late Thu
night, then crossing the entire state Fri into Sat as the low passes
overhead. Getting some run to run continuity now between models, so
there is a bit more confidence in increasing pops for the plains as
well as the higher terrain for Fri through Sat morning. Look for
highs both days in the upper 40s to near 60F for most locations.

Sunday...Cool but dry for the area as the upper low passes to the
east. Expect highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1157 PM MDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Outside of gusty primarily afternoon and evening winds generally
in the 15 to 30 knot range, TAF sites KALS, KCOS and KPUB should
experience VFR conditions during the next 24 hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ222-
224>237.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ222-
224>230-233-237.

&&

$$