407
FXUS65 KPUB 070105
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
705 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms possible across the southeast plains
  this afternoon and evening, and again on Monday.

- Warmer and drier weather expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Hot and breezy Thursday with cooler and and more unsettled
  weather for Friday into the early weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Currently...High pressure aloft remains across the Desert SW and the
southern US, while an upper disturbance crosses the northern
Rockies. LLVL moisture that was in place across the eastern plains
this morning has persisted, providing the fuel for convection firing
over the higher terrain and Palmer Divide this afternoon. Temps have
warmed into the upper 70s to mid 80s for the high valleys, and 80s
to around 90F for the plains as of 1 PM.

Tonight...Just like yesterday, an upper disturbance crossing the
northern Rockies is providing the trigger to tap into available
moisture and instability for stronger to severe storms to develop
across the plains this afternoon and evening, and a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of CO and WY until 8
PM. The southern edge of this watch box dips down across El Paso and
Kiowa counties, and though much of the severe activity is expected
to remain north of the Palmer Divide, a few severe storms will be
possible, with the main threats expected to be strong outflow gusts
of 60 to possibly 70 mph, and hail up to around an inch in diameter.
Hi-res models are indicating 1600-2000j/kg of CAPE across much
of the SE plains, and 30-40 kts of bulk shear with an additional
spin boost off of the Palmer. Though there are only the two
counties included within the watch, the potential exists for an
active night with strong storms likely across much of the
plains. Convection is expected to linger late and perhaps into
the overnight hours, just like last night. Further west, much
drier air is in place (30s vs 50s) so while isolated convection
has developed, nothing too strong is anticipated and activity
should die down soon after sunset when heating ends. Plan on
overnight low temps in the 40s to around 50F for the high
valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the plains.

Monday...Tomorrow looks like it could be another busy day, and will
heavily depend on how much llvl moisture gets pushed back towards
the mountains due to outflow tonight, and how much cloud cover there
is that could inhibit heating. Indications on how busy it could be
will likely be known by 11 AM. SPC has dropped the Slight area for
severe weather down across eastern CO once again, and WPC has
covered pretty much all of eastern CO with a Marginal for excessive
rainfall. Look for high temps tomorrow in the 80s for the high
valleys, and mid 80s to around 90F for the plains. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 339 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

The upper high across the Four Corners region remains progged to
build into south central Colorado Tuesday and Wednesday,
bringing a warming and drying trend to all of south central and
southeast Colorado. While there looks to be enough residual
moisture for isolated to scattered higher based showers and
storms over and near the higher terrain on Tuesday, Wednesday
looks to be mainly dry across the area with the upper high
overhead. At to slightly above seasonal temperatures areawide on
Tuesday warm into the mid 90s to lower 100s across the plains
on Wednesday, with 70s and 80s expected across the higher
terrain and upper 80s to lower 90s across the high mountain
valleys.

For Thursday and beyond, latest models are in general agreement of
the upper high being shunted south and east by several embedded
waves translating through the faster zonal flow across the Northern
Tier. Ahead of the first passing wave on Thursday, will bring
breezy westerly winds and very warm temperatures leading to the
potential for critical fire weather conditions across portions
of the area. This passing system sends a cold front across the
area leading to cooler, closer to seasonal temperatures, and
more unsettled weather once again for Friday and into the early
weekend, as available moisture increases across the region once
again.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 704 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

KALS: VFR through 24 hours with diurnally-driven winds. Winds will
gusts to around 20 knots for a few more hours this evening before
weakening overnight. Mid-level clouds will linger through Monday.

KCOS: Strong to severe thunderstorms are rolling across the area as
of 23Z, and should continue off and on in the area through about
02Z. After a brief lull in activity, more showers and storms are
expected to move in and out of the area near the terminal between 03-
06Z. Coverage will be spotty, by confidence for activity over the
terminal has increased. Storms will produce strong outflow winds,
MVFR cigs, and possibly brief periods of heavy rain and lowered vis.
The area should dry out after 06Z, but some low clouds in the MVFR
range should linger in the early morning hours for Monday. More
showers and storms will be possible in the area Monday afternoon.

KPUB: Gusty southeast winds will linger at the terminal into this
evening, along with a low but non-zero chance for showers and
thunderstorms overhead. Coverage will be scattered enough to leave
as PROB30 for now, but any storms near the area will produce gusty
outflow winds 20-30 knots, or possible stronger with any severe
storms. If a storm does move over the terminal, MVFR cigs, briefly
lowered vis, and brief periods of heavy rain will be possible.
Showers will leave the area after 06Z. Some low clouds may set in
early Monday morning, leaving conditions at MVFR for a few
hours before the clouds mix out. Gusty southeast winds resume
Monday afternoon, and though some showers may be expected in
the area, confidence in coverage is too low to include in this
round of TAFs.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO