763
FXUS65 KPUB 081740
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1140 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon
  across the far southeast plains.

- Warming and drying trend into the middle of the week with more
  isolated afternoon showers and storms.

- Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected
  Thursday through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 328 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Current water vapor and upper air analysis indicates modest northwest
flow aloft across the central Rockies, as upper high pressure continues
to build across the Desert Southwest into the eastern Great Basin
and Intermountain West at this time. Water vapor imagery also indicates
drier in place across the Great Basin starting to rotate around the high
and into western Colorado at this time. Further east, short wave energy
continues to dig down the back side of the ridge into the Upper Midwest.
Regional radars as of 1 am are still indicating a few showers across the
far southeast plains, with one rogue thunderstorm moving southeast across
the northeast plains.

For today through Wednesday, model data has been consistent in a warming
and drying trend, as the center of the upper high builds to just south of
the Four Corners through the day Wednesday. This will continue to bring
in drier air within weak north to northwest flow aloft across the Rockies.
Latest model data continues to support drier air to mixing down across
the I-25 Corridor this afternoon, with the best instability being out
across the far southeast plains with dewpoints remaining in the 50s and
leading to CAPE values of 1000-1500 j/kg this afternoon. With the
instability and just enough shear on the western edge of the stronger
northerly flow across the high plains, there could be a few strong
to severe storms producing gusty outflow winds of 60 mph and marginally
severe hail. Further west, higher based showers and storms could bring
gusty winds up to 50 mph, with small hail and locally heavy rainfall
with the strongest storms. With that said, the latest SPC Day 1 outlook
has pushed the marginal risk out well east of the I-25 Corridor across
the far southeast plains. Less convective cloud cover and warming aloft
will allow for temperatures to warm a few degrees warmer than Monday
into the upper 80s to upper 90s across the plains, and mainly 70s and
80s across the higher terrain, save for 50s and 60s at the peaks.

Skies clear through the evening, with overnight lows at to slightly
above seasonal levels mainly in the 60s across the plains and in the
40s and 50s across the higher terrain.

Even more warming and drying is in the offing for Wednesday, with isolated,
at best, high based showers and storms over the higher terrain. Highs
on Wednesday to warm into the 90s to lower 100s across the plains, with
70s and 80s across the higher terrain and into the 90s across the high
mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 328 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Wednesday Night - Thursday: For the later part of the midweek
period, active weather is expected for portions of south central and
southeastern Colorado. The ridge in place will start to flatten
Wednesday night in response to an approaching wave, with the wave
passing over through Thursday. With this flow pattern, forcing will
increase over the area, particularly orographic forcing. With that
all said, while dry conditions are expected Wednesday night for
many, isolated showers are expected along the higher terrain as
forcing increase. Then for Thursday, showers and storms will
increase in coverage as the waves passes over, first initially along
the mountains, and then pushing east as the increased flow helps to
push them off the higher terrain. Frequent lightning, gusty outflow
winds, and brief periods of heavy rain can be expected with any more
organized storms. Otherwise, breezy winds and periods of increased
mid to high level clouds are anticipated during this timeframe.
Looking at temperatures, warm and above seasonal temperatures are
anticipated for much of south central and southeastern Colorado.

Friday - Monday: For the rest of the long term period, active
weather is expected each day for portions of south central and
southeastern Colorado. Flow will become more westerly to
northwesterly over the region in response to a large high pressure
building across the far southwestern US. Forcing will remain
heightened with this pattern, particularly orographic forcing. With
forcing, and moisture, still in place, daily afternoon showers and
storms are expected, though with the greatest coverage remaining
along the mountains where forcing will be maximized. Beyond that,
breezy winds and increased afternoon cloud cover are anticipated
each day. As for temperatures, values Friday will drop to near
seasonal values thanks to a cold front passaged late Thursday, with
temperatures Saturday dropping to below seasonal values thanks
to another cold front passage late Friday. Sunday and Monday
however rebound quickly, with near to slightly above seasonal
temperatures expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

VFR conditions anticipated across the forecast area over the next 24
hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Isolated convection over the higher terrain this afternoon may have
a tough time continuing once it moves off the mts, but decided to
include PROB30 wording for KCOS from 21z-01z for -TSRA and more
importantly variable gust potential to 30 kts. There is an outside
chance for some convection to near KPUB but confidence was too low
to include in the terminal forecast. Clearing skies overnight with
less convective activity and more diurnal trends tomorrow. Moore

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MOORE