Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 191744

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1144 AM MDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 500 AM MDT Thu Apr 19 2018

...High Fire Danger and Evening Precip Chances Thursday...

An impressive mid-level trough, currently  centered over the west-
central California coast, will advance toward Colorado during the
day on Thursday. As the trough approaches the region, deepening
surface low pressure over western Colorado combined with high
pressure residing to our east will tighten the pressure gradient
over eastern Colorado, leading to strong southeasterly surface
winds. Winds across the plains and San Luis Vally will strengthen
throughout the afternoon into the early evening, reaching sustained
levels of 22-32 knots and gusting to 40-45 knots. Continued low RH
values of 10-15% combined with the gusty winds and dry fuels will
lead to critical fire weather conditions across much of the forecast
area during the afternoon and early evening. Further, strong surface
winds may cause blowing dust across parts of the eastern plains.
Winds will decrease only slightly during the evening, still gusting
over 20 knots in many areas.

The mid-level trough evolves into a closed low as it advances into
the four corners region this afternoon into the evening, poking the
exit region of a 100+ knot 300 mb jet into southern Colorado. Strong
southerly/southeasterly low-level flow will drive increased moisture
into the continental divide region, including TPW values in excess
of 0.4". The favorable moisture combined with increasing upper-level
and terrain-induced forcing will develop snow showers across the
continental divide after 00Z. Some of the snow showers will be
convective given the presence of weak instability. A few inches of
snowfall is expected overnight, with higher amounts possible in
convective cells. Snow showers will begin to develop over the
Sangre`s by late evening, and isolated rain showers across the
plains by early Friday morning.

Temperatures on Thursday across the plains will rebound into the
upper 60s to low 70s, around 63 in Colorado Springs, and the mid 60s
in the San Luis Valley. Cloud cover will help keep overnight lows
up, with low to mid 40s expected across the plains, and slightly
cooler in the San Luis Valley. Line

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 500 AM MDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Longer term meteorological issues continue to include increasing
precipitation potential into Friday and Saturday, winds,
temperatures and thunderstorm potential at times.

Closed upper low centered over east-central Utah at 12Z Friday is
projected to be centered just east of Pueblo by 06Z Saturday
before moving into southwestern Oklahoma by 18Z Saturday and then
into northwestern Arkansas by 12Z Sunday.

This system is projected to bring unsettled and cooler conditions
to many locations of the forecast district from later tonight
into Saturday(including snow, heavy at times over many higher
terrain locations), therefore, have issued a Winter Storm Watch
during this time-frame to account for this potential. In addition,
thunderstorms will also be possible at times with this system.

More tranquil and warmer meteorological conditions are then
expected to return to the majority of the forecast district from
Saturday evening into Monday as transitory upper ridging passed by
to the south.

Then, a return to somewhat more unsettled conditions at times
will be possible Tuesday into Wednesday as a couple of relatively
weak upper systems impact the CWA.

The highest potential for gusty winds during the longer term
should be realized into Friday, while coolest temperatures
are expected Friday and Saturday, with warmest conditions


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Thu Apr 19 2018

VFR conditions are anticipated at the 3 taf sites; KPUB, KALS and
KCOS, through most of tonight. Towards sunrise, cigs will lower at
KALS and mvfr conditions will be likely tomorrow morning as rain
and snow will be possible. It will remain windy at KALS through
the period.

For KCOS, VFR is likely until tomorrow morning, then cigs will
lower to mvfr and showers will develop by late tomorrow morning.
It will be windy at KCOS through the period.

KPUB will likely be VFR next 24 hours. Winds will pick up at KPUB
by early to mid afternoon and it will remain windy through the
remainder of the period.


Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ220>222-

Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through late Friday night
for COZ058-060-061-063-066-068.

Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Saturday
afternoon for COZ072>076-080>082.



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