945
FXUS65 KPUB 092336
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
536 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions expected for portions of the
  area Thursday, with another hot day combined with increasing
  winds.

- Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday,
  then daily afternoon and evening showers and storms expected
  through the forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 204 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Currently...A very hot and dry day across south central and
southeast CO, with some high-based over the mts creating
intermittent gusty winds. Temps as of 2 PM have climbed into the 80s
to near 90F for the high valleys, and 90s to around 100F for the
plains.

Tonight...Very hot conditions continue this evening, and the Heat
Advisory remains in place until 8 PM, when temperatures are forecast
to finally drop below 100F for all areas. The ridge of high pressure
overhead will start to flatten this evening as an approaching upper
disturbance crosses the Intermountain West and pushes into the Great
Basin. Isolated to low-end scattered showers are expected to develop
along the Continental Divide late tonight as this disturbance nears,
and winds will gradually increase overnight. Plan on a very mild,
and for some "stuffy", night tonight with overnight lows in the 50s
for the high valleys, and 60s to near 70F for the plains.

Thursday...The upper disturbance continues east tomorrow, crossing
the Rockies through midday. Another hot day is on tap for the area,
and combined with increasing winds and receptive fuels prompted
the upgrading of the Fire Weather Watch for western areas to a
Red Flag Warning. This is a somewhat tricky forecast, since the
passing wave will produce a better chance for shower activity
which could elevate humidity levels. However, as the wave passes
east there will be very dry air on the back end of it, rapidly
dropping RH levels back down. Feel that this is a marginal event
with respect to Red Flag criteria, but there remains enough
risk to warrant the upgrade. Farther east, the passing wave will
push a cold front south across the Palmer Divide and the
eastern plains. Increasing moisture behind the front combined
with shifting surface flow will lead to increasing rain and
storm probabilities starting around 11 AM or noon and lasting
into the late evening. SPC has painted an area for Marginal
severe threat back along the eastern mts and I-25 Corridor, and
a Slight severe threat for Kiowa, Bent, Prowers and Baca
counties. Given available LLVL moisture, CAPE sitting at around
1400 j/kg and dramatically increasing bulk shear, the potential
exists for a few strong to severe storms developing across the
plains through the aftn. After a warm start, max temps tomorrow
are expected to quickly warm into the 80s to around 90F for the
high valleys, and 90-100F for the plains. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 331 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Thursday Night - Tuesday: For the long term period, active weather
is expected each day for portions of south central and southeastern
Colorado. Flow over the region will vary from westerly to northerly
during this period in response to a ridge of high pressure across
the southwestern US. While no major forcing is expected, this
pattern will allow for persistent orographic forcing, along with
brief periods of enhanced forcing along frontal surges. With some
forcing in place, and moisture still present, daily isolated and
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are
anticipated. The greatest coverage of showers and storms is expected
to remain along the higher terrain where forcing will be maximized.
Along with that, a strong storm or two can`t be ruled out,
particularly across the plains, with frequent lightning, gusty
outflow winds, small hail, and brief periods of heavy rain the most
likely hazards from any stronger storms. Beyond all of that, winds
are expected to remain breezy through early next week, with
increased cloud cover each afternoon and evening. Looking at
temperatures, the later part of the week and start of the weekend
will be the coolest and around and slightly below seasonal values
thanks to a couple of cold front passages. Then for the end of the
weekend and early part of next week, temperatures are expected to
rebound, with values warming to near and slightly above seasonal
values.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 535 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Outside of thunderstorm chances, VFR conditions are expected at all
three sites, KCOS, KPUB, and KALS, for the next 24 hours. At both
KCOS and KPUB, thunderstorms are likely (70% chance) for Thursday
afternoon, mainly between 20Z and 23Z. Main risks with storms at all
three terminals will be hail, winds gusting to 55 mph, frequent
lightning, and heavy rain, which could drop visibilities below VFR
briefly. A cold front also looks to push through KCOS and KPUB
tomorrow afternoon, which could bring about an abrupt shift to
northerly and northeasterly winds, though winds look to be more
impacted by convection at this time. Thunderstorm activity looks to
push east of all three terminals fairly quickly after sunset.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Thursday for COZ220-223-
224.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ083>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...EHR