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000
FXUS65 KPUB 230954
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
354 AM MDT Thu Mar 23 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 348 AM MDT Thu Mar 23 2023

Key Messages:

1) High fire danger over portions of the Plains this afternoon.

2) Light to moderate snow along the Continental Divide this
afternoon and tonight.

3) Maybe a couple of thunderstorms on the Plains this afternoon with
gusty outflow winds.

Currently...satellite imagery this morning shows the strong upper
jet pulling away from eastern Colorado early this morning.
Meanwhile, the next upper disturbance is moving across Utah.
Mountain areas along the Continental Divide continue to see light
snow.  Higher elevations are also seeing breezy conditions with
gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range.  Across the Plains, a weak cold
front has dropped south out near the Kansas border with a northerly
wind shift and slightly cooler temperatures.  Overall, temperatures
this morning range from the low 20s across the San Luis Valley,
upper 30s along the I-25 corridor, to near 30 out across Kiowa
County.

Today...the next slow moving upper disturbance will begin to impact
southern Colorado this afternoon.  Increasing southwesterly flow and
mixing will allow for increased fire weather concerns for portions
of the Plains this afternoon.  A Red Flag Warning remains in effect
for this afternoon from Pueblo, south along the I-25 corridor, where
gusty west winds will combine with low humidity values.

The frontal boundary currently across eastern Colorado will likely
drift across the eastern Plains this afternoon and will likely play
a role in possible thunderstorm activity.  Currently, the boundary
will likely stretch from near La Junta, southeast to near
Springfield.  SBCAPE values around 200 to 300 j/kg may be enough to
get a few thunderstorms going this afternoon along that boundary.
The main threat from any thunderstorms that develop would be gusty
outflow winds to near 45 mph.  Any convection that develops will
push east into the late afternoon to early evening hours.

Temperatures this afternoon will warm into the upper 50s to near 60
across the Plains, with 40s over the San Luis Valley.

Snow will also pick up along the Continental Divide this afternoon
as the upper disturbance moves into the area.  New snow
accumulations of 1 to 4 inches may be possible through this
afternoon.

Tonight...a low pressure center is forecast to develop over the
Palmer Divide this evening, and track southeast across the Plains
overnight.  This will combine with the upper disturbance as it moves
across the Plains to help produce rain and snow, from the Palmer
Divide, southeast towards Springfield.  At this time, temperatures
look too warm for much snow, with a dusting possible across the
Palmer Divide by morning.  None of the precipitation is expected to
be overly heavy overnight, and looks to clear to the northeast by
Friday morning as the upper wave lifts away.

Snow on the Continental Divide should also taper off overnight, with
minor additional accumulations of an inch or two possible, mainly
during the evening hours.  Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 AM MDT Thu Mar 23 2023

Key Messages:

1) A cooler and more active pattern continues for Friday through
this weekend.

2) Brief warming and drying trend to begin next week, before active
pattern returns.

Friday and Saturday..

Shortwave energy embedded in a broader trough continues to push off
to our east through Friday morning. This will keep light snow
showers along the Continental Divide, and rain showers on our far
eastern plains through the early morning hours. Though cloud
cover looks to increase throughout the day, many plains locations
will likely see enough sunshine to warm into the mid 50s or so
before the main trough axis passes through Friday late afternoon.
As the trough passes, showers increase across the area, and fill
in along the I-25 corridor by Friday evening. Forecast soundings
show inverted V profiles across the eastern plains, indicating
that we could see short-lived thunderstorm activity on Friday as
well. Given the amount of dry air at the surface and a decent
amount of DCAPE showing up in forecast skew ts, we`ll likely see
more outflow winds than meaningful precipitation out of any storms
that do manage to develop. Further west towards the I-25
corridor, virga and showers will be possible, but overall there
looks to be a lot of dry air to overcome on Friday. Additional
chances for precipitation move in on Saturday, as a low tracks
across northern Colorado. Both GEFS and EPS guidance has trended
slightly further south with this system through recent runs,
increasing our potential to see precip on our plains, mainly along
and north of highway 50. As better moisture looks to stay draped
across northern and eastern portions of the area, we could see a
few hours of critical fire weather conditions across the southern
I-25 corridor on Saturday afternoon as well. Daytime high
temperatures look to warm into the 40s for most plains locations,
with 20s and 30s expected for our mountain valleys and higher
elevation locations.

Sunday and Monday..

A secondary lobe of energy arrives Sunday with another low passing
to our north. Ensemble guidance continues to show disagreement with
this system, with GEFS members showing less and less potential for
southern Colorado to see meaningful precipitation during this
period. EPS and Canadian members show more of a potential, but
overall we look to cool down for both Sunday and Monday. Highs look
to remain in the 40s for both days across our plains and our
mountain valleys, as zonal flow sets in for most of Monday.

Tuesday Onwards..

Southwesterly flow looks to increase for Tuesday and Wednesday as
another Pacific Low forms up to our west. Depending on timing with
this system, expecting to see a day or two of warming temperatures,
increasing southerly and southwesterly winds, and possible critical
fire weather as the system approaches on Tuesday and possibly
through Wednesday as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 348 AM MDT Thu Mar 23 2023

KALS...CIGS to near 5 kft and showers moving across the San Luis
Valley will be the main concerns at the terminal this afternoon.  At
this time, shower activity should remain north of the terminal.
Westerly winds could gust near 30 kts this afternoon.  VFR
conditions are forecast overnight.

KCOS...VFR conditions through this afternoon.  A surface boundary
will shift winds from southerly to northerly late this afternoon.  A
few showers may also be possible this evening, which may lower CIGS
and VIS as they pass.

KPUB...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours.  All shower activity
should remain to the east.  A surface boundary will shift winds from
westerly to northerly this evening.  Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
COZ228>230-232-233.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...MOZLEY