Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 212015

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
215 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019

...Strong to Severe Storms this Afternoon...

Currently...radar is starting to light up across Southern Colorado
this afternoon.  Temperatures have warmed nicely into the 80s across
the Plains.  Winds have been easterly banking moisture up against
the Eastern Mountains and providing low level upslope flow.

This afternoon and evening...showers and thunderstorms will continue
to develop across much of the region.  Given the moisture, low level
upslope flow and high instability over the area, a couple of storms
that develop may become strong to severe.  Primary threats will be
lightning, locally heavy rainfall, hail to 2 inches in diameter and
gusty outflow winds.  Models have been focusing areas over El Paso
County for this afternoon, and dropping a strong storm south
southeast into Pueblo County by late afternoon.  Other cells that
develop across the area may also become strong.  Flash flooding will
be a threat, especially over area burn scars and urban areas.  If
you should encounter flash flooding, remember, turn around, don`t
drown!  Storms will shift eastward through the evening hours across
the Plains.  Strong to  severe storms will remain possible as they
track east.  Models are in general agreement with storms ending for
the Colorado Springs and Pueblo areas by 9 pm.

Tonight...showers and thunderstorms will continue east into Kansas
overnight tonight.  Winds will be light across the region once
storms exit the area into Thursday morning.  Overnight lows will
fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Thursday...after a quiet morning, another round of afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over much
of southern Colorado.  Low level flow will increase out of the
southeast by mid morning helping to keep low level moisture in place
across the region.  Expect initial thunderstorm development by late
morning over the mountains.  As we progress into the afternoon hours,
this activity will shift eastward into the I-25 corridor.  Although
coverage looks to be more scattered in nature, a few of these storms
could become strong, and produce locally heavy rainfall.  Burn scars
will have to be monitored for heavy rainfall.  Lightning, small hail
and gusty outflow winds will also be possible.  Afternoon highs will
reach into the mid to upper 80s across the lower elevations.  Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019

.Thursday night and Friday...Ongoing convection Thursday evening
will move eastward and gradually weaken.  On Friday, trough will
move across northern Rockies with CWA being on the southern edge of
the disturbance.  NBM grids have the lower level moisture on the
eastern plains decreasing during the day, with more moisture
remaining near the Kansas border.  There will still be enough
moisture for afternoon and evening thunderstorms and did not alter
NBM PoP or QPF grids.  The latest ETA, GFS and EC are hinting that
more moisture may remain in the plains during the afternoon and
evening, especially closer to the Kansas border and over Kiowa
County. If this trend continues, anticipate better chances for
stronger storms on Friday over th eastern plains.  Will not make any
changes to grids at this time, and will wait and see if trend
continues in more members of the NBM.

.Saturday and Sunday...It will be hot and dry over the region as
upper ridge along the west coast expands eastward.  Northwest flow
aloft will bring warm and dry mild level air into the region.  Lee
trough develops with deeper low level moisture moving eastward.
Precipitable water values approach values one standard deviation
below normal.  Sunday looks to be the hottest day and grids already
have highs equal or 1 degree below record highs at Alamosa, Colorado
Spring, and Pueblo.  Cannot totally rule out an isolated
thunderstorms over the mountains with light, if any, rainfall.

.Monday through Wednesday...A mean trough develops over the high
plains with a ridge off the west coast. As one disturbance moves
into the northern high plains, a weak cold front could pass over the
region Monday.  There will be a modest increase in precipitation
chances especially over the plains and eastern mountains with some
modest cooling. The slight cooling and moistening trend continues on
Tuesday.  A stronger cold front looks to pass over the region
sometime later on Tuesday into Wednesday.  Wednesday could be a
cooler and wetter day over the region as more abundant low level
moisture moves onto the plains and eastern mountains.  -PGW--


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 212 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019

KALS...a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms that have developed
over the mountains will spread east into the San Luis Valley.
Confidence in one of these storms hitting the terminal continues to
be low.  the most likely time frame for storms will be through 00z
this afternoon.  VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the
terminal into Thursday afternoon.  Another round of showers and
thunderstorms will be possible.

KCOS and KPUB...showers and thunderstorms have been developing
across the region and are forecast to move across the terminals
through this evening.  Strong winds, small hail, lightning and
locally heavy rainfall will also be possible with passing storms.
Storms may impact the terminals through 03z.  Once storms move away
from the area, VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday morning.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible by Thursday
afternoon. Mozley




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