Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 270539
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1039 PM MST Mon Feb 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy snow over the mountains tonight and Tomorrow with strong
  winds.

- Strong winds once again tomorrow, generally along and south of
  US-50.

- Red Flag conditions once again along the CO/NM border
  tomorrow.

- Strong front crosses the region tomorrow.

- Snow will be possible over most areas, mainly the southern
  I-25 corridor, tomorrow evening through early Wednesday.

- Snow will begin to move in across ContDvd late in the day on
  Saturday and increase into Sunday.

- Winds will increase with Red Flag Conditions possible over the
  plains on Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM MST Mon Feb 26 2024

Currently...

Strong winds, occasionally gusting to over high wind warning
criteria, were occurring across the plains this afternoon. RED FLAG
conditions were widespread over the region as all stations on the
plains were below 15% with wind gusts generally in the 40 to 60 mph
range. Radar was showing snow pushing into the CONTDVD along with
CDOT webcams. Temps across the region were more late Spring-like, as
upper 70s were noted over the far eastern plains with U60s and 70s
rest of plains, and 50s in the valleys.

Rest of Today into Tonight...

First for the plains rest of this afternoon >>> Strong winds will
continue with red flag conditons lasting into the early evening.

For the entire area, winds will gradually come down as the evening
progresses, but all areas will remain breezy at lower elevations and
valleys. Wind prone areas may stay gusty in the 25 to 35 mph range
through the night. Temps will remain unseasonably warm.

In the mountains...heavy snow will continue. the areas which will
see the heavies snow will be the San Juans generally south of wolf
Creek Pass where over 2 feet is likely. The central mtns will also
do well with 1 to 2 feet.

Later tonight, as the strong subtropical jet merges with the polar
jet with the trough coming across, the winds aloft will become quite
intense, and this will lead to very strong winds pushing into the
region. These winds will affect the central and SW mtns first and
then push east southeast.

Tomorrow...

The strong winds mentioned in the last paragraph will then push
across the San Luis valley tomorrow morning and then onto the plains
late tomorrow morning into the afternoon. Areas along and south of
the US50 corridor will see very strong winds tomorrow, and these
winds will pick up rather quite early in the day, and this is the
region why the high wind warning starts at 12 UTC tomorrow.

As for Red Flag conditions, the overall best chance of low RH values
AND strong winds will be along the plains along the CO/NM border.
Although it will be windy all areas tomorrow, the best chance for
lower RH values will be down along the NM border. Additionally, a
strong cold front will push down the plains tomorrow, increasing the
RH values rather quickly and cooling the temps downward. Based on
latest guidance, the front should come across the Palmer during the
10-11 AM time period and then push slowly southward and reaching the
NM border late in the day. This front will push rather quickly south
over the far southeast plains, but will likely "backdoor" into the
Raton Mesa region later in the day

Note that there is some uncertainty if the winds over parts of the
far southeast plains will reach high wind criteria or not, and this
region has been left in a High Wind Watch.

The best chance for precip over the plains will be during the
afternoon time period. At this time the precip on the plains looks
more showery in nature. Temperatures will drop rather quickly after
the front goes by and temps may be below freezing across parts of El
paso county after noon time. There will be a chance of some snow
squalls over the region, including the plains. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM MST Mon Feb 26 2024

Tomorrow evening through early Wednesday morning...

As the trough continues to exit the region, strong and gusty winds
over the plains will begin to diminish and come around more out of a
northerly direction over the eastern plains, and northwesterly
direction along the I-25 corridor. There will be some lingering snow
showers that could result in an inch or two, which will be mainly
confined to areas over the southeastern plains and southern I-25
corridor. There could also be a few more inches of snow over the
northern Sawatch Range. This will all come to an end likely by early
in the morning on Wednesday. Clearing skies with much colder air
advection from the north will give way to a rather chilly night for
tomorrow, with lows getting down into the teens for the plains, and
generally into the single digits and even some areas within the high
mountain valleys and passes dipping down below the zero degree mark.

Wednesday afternoon through Sunday...

A ridge will continue to build back in behind the exiting trough
with high pressure conditions returning to the region. It will still
be below average temps on Wednesday with the colder air advection
still in place, but then quickly rebound towards the end of the week
as surface winds continue to switch around back out of the south to
southwest. Ensemble members have been persistent in showing a deep
trough out to the west, and this will advance slowly towards the
region, with impacts beginning as early as Saturday. Given the
progression of the trough that is depicted by the deterministic
models, which are in relatively good agreement, this will also allow
for a strong southwesterly flow in the mid to upper levels ahead of
the trough to move over the region and bring about the return of
fire weather conditions over the lower elevations. The downsloping
winds and maximized ridging overhead on Friday will make this the
warmest day of the next week, with some highs reaching up into the
80s over the eastern plains. Snow will continue to increase over the
mountains on Saturday by later in the day, and likely continue to
increase in intensity as this major shortwave trough slowly
transitions eastward. It is still far out in the forecast period and
thus susceptible to change, but at least for the moment, ensembles
are leaning towards a more unsettled pattern going into the weekend
and possibly into early next week with much cooler temperatures and
increasing chances for precip over the region.   -Stewey

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1038 PM MST Mon Feb 26 2024

KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Winds will continue to be the main impactful weather for throughout
this TAF period. Winds will remain heightened overnight, hovering
around 10 to 13 knots. Then around early morning, westerly winds
will increase for both TAF sites, with a FROPA then expected by late
morning, quickly shifting winds to a more northerly direction. Winds
will remain gusty after FROPA, with a slow decrease during the mid
to late evening hours. With the strong winds, areas of blowing dust
will be possible, though hazy conditions in general from the windy
conditions are expected. Along with that, showers will be possible
tomorrow afternoon, especially for KCOS, though confidence in
development continues to be low at this time, so no VCSH is
mentioned in current TAFs. Otherwise, dry conditions with mid to
high level clouds are expected through much of this TAF period, with
a decrease in clouds late during the evening hours.

KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will
continue to be the main impactful weather for throughout this TAF
period. Winds will remain heightened overnight, hovering around 15
knots, with occasional gusts to around 25 knots. Then around early
to mid morning, winds will start to increase from the southwest and
persist into and throughout the afternoon. With the strong winds,
areas of blowing dust will be possible, though hazy conditions in
general from the windy conditions are expected. In addition to that,
showers are still anticipated to spread across the San Luis Valley
tomorrow afternoon as they push off of the higher terrain.
Otherwise, dry conditions with mid to high level clouds are expected
through much of this TAF period, with a decrease in clouds late
during the evening hours.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST Tuesday for COZ058-060-
061-067-068.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Tuesday for COZ059-073-
075.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST Tuesday for COZ066.
High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday for COZ069>075-
078>080-086>088-093-094-097-099.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 4 PM MST Tuesday for COZ230-233-
237.
High Wind Watch from 5 AM MST Tuesday through Tuesday
afternoon for COZ089-095-096-098.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...STEWARD
AVIATION...SIMCOE


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