437
FXUS65 KPUB 262325
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
525 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area today
  and tomorrow, with excessive rainfall, small hail, and wind
  gusts to 45 mph possible.

- Drying out and heating up with the potential for Heat
  Advisories for portions of the southeast plains for Mon
  through Wed of next week.

- Rain chances increase again late week taking the edge off Max
  temperatures, but chances for meaningful accumulations still
  look low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Currently..

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are present across
the area as of 2pm this afternoon, mainly over the high country.
rainfall rates of about an inch per hour are present in storms over
portions of the Upper Arkansas River Valley. For example, Salida saw
.25 inches of rain in about 20 minutes out of one cell at around
1pm. Area burn scars and other flood prone locations are being
monitored closely this afternoon with subtropical moisture overhead.
Temperatures are in the upper 80s and low 90s across the plains,
with 80s across mountain valleys. Dewpoints are in the 40s and 50s.
As of 2pm, all lightning activity has remained confined to the
higher terrain.

Rest of Today and Tonight..

Showers and storms are expected to drift off the terrain within the
next couple of hours, though with weak shear in place, most activity
is expected to weaken quickly once it gets east of the I-25
corridor. Our burn scars and flood prone areas to include the Chalk
Cliffs are our biggest concerns for the late afternoon and early
evening hours, with rainfall rates of over an inch per hour and the
possibility of multiple cells passing over the same areas, flash
flooding will continue to be possible over the high country for the
next several hours. Convective activity is expected to dwindle
quickly after sunset, with most areas clear and dry by around 9pm or
so at the latest. Overnight lows will be near to just above normal
for most locations.

Tomorrow..

Coverage and intensity of showers and storms look to increase
tomorrow, especially over the lower terrain. Models show increasing
southwesterly flow, which will help to push storms off the terrain.
Shear also increases tomorrow, which will further help to support
storms and keep them organized as they move out onto the plains
tomorrow. Instability is lacking though, which should help to stave
off chances for severe thunderstorm development, though a few
stronger storms will still be possible over the lower terrain given
the moisture available. Excessive rainfall, localized flash
flooding, small hail, and wind gusts to 45 mph will be possible with
storms tomorrow. Some drying in the mid-levels begins to work its
way in from the west tomorrow, which is evident in the PWAT
anomalies from today versus tomorrow. This could help to limit flash
flooding potential over the mountains for tomorrow, though
susceptible areas will still need to be monitored closely. For
temperatures, expect near to just above normal highs in the mid 80s
to upper 90s across the plains, mid 80s to low 90s for mountain
valleys, and 70s for the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Showers and thunderstorms linger into Saturday night as the upper
trough glances by to the north and a surface boundary drops
southward into the plains.  Overall, activity becomes more isolated
through late evening with best chances north of highway 50 in the
proximity of the front.

Sunday will be dry and breezy as enhanced southwesterly flow behind
the passing wave remains over the region. This dries out the
atmosphere significantly with PWATs dropping off to 0.2 to 0.5 over
the mountains and around 0.80 or less across the plains.
Thunderstorm chances look very low with perhaps only some
isolated thunderstorms at best across the higher terrain. Winds
will remain breezy which will elevate fire weather concerns as
temperatures begin the warm up. Highs on the plains are likely
to reach 100-104, though with the higher temperatures in climo,
these are still largely below Heat Advisory levels for all but a
small part of El Paso county. While humidity and wind values
will reach critical fire weather conditions along and north of
highway 50 across Teller, Fremont, Chaffee and Lake counties,
land management agencies are not reporting fuels as critically
dry. So no fire weather highlights appear needed at this point
thanks to recent rainfall over the area. However, fuels will
begin to cure as we start a prolonged drying trend.

Hot and dry conditions will continue much of next week with the
potential to tie or break records at all three sites.  Best chances
will be Tuesday and Wednesday.  Heat Advisories become more likely
for the urban areas of the I-25 corridor Monday through Wednesday
and although climo is hotter across the plains, some lower Arkansas
River Valley counties could also be under the risk Tue and Wednesday
depending on how details are resolved.

A weak frontal boundary and some mid/high based moisture may help to
cool temperatures down a couple degrees for Thursday and bring some
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to the region.  These are more
likely to produce gusty outflow winds but only spotty light rainfall
amounts.  But this should help take the edge of high temperatures
some.  Similar story continues for Friday with meager monsoon
moisture wrapping around the upper high and low level easterly flow
keeping some modest 40s to lower 50 dew points across the plains.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible again in
the afternoon with high temperatures dropping back into the 90s
across the plains, 80s for the lower valley locations and 60s
and 70s for the high country.
-KT

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 523 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Showers will end shortly after taf issuance time this evening
at KCOS and KPUB. Otherwise VFR conditions anticipated through
tonight and tomorrow. We may see another round of showers late
tomorrow afternoon but there will be less moisture in the column
for convection tomorrow as compared to today. May be a bit
breezy at KPUB and KCOS tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...HODANISH