557
FXUS65 KPUB 200521
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1021 PM MST Sun Jan 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous Cold main concerns through Tuesday morning.

- 2nd Arctic front will blast across during rush hour tomorrow
  morning bringing enhanced wind chill concerns and periods of snow.

- Potentially very cold again early Tuesday morning, then warming up.

- Slight warming trend throughout midweek, before another cool
  down.

- Possibility of an impactful winter storm next weekend...stay
  tuned!

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 202 PM MST
Sun Jan 19 2025

Currently...

It is cold outside! Ambient temps across the region early this
afternoon wee in the single digits across most of the plans with
tens over the far eastern plains and parts of the Raton Mesa. Along
the I-25 corridor it was cold with single digits. Large valleys were
actually the warmest with tens and some L20 in the upper Arkansas
Valley (Buena Vista). Clouds were on the increase across the region,
especially over the Contdvd region. Radar was starting to show some
echoes over northern Colorado and the West Slope.

Now through 12 noon Tuesday...

Main concern continues to be the cold. 2ndry ARCTIC front will move
across the region around sunrise tomorrow. There is likely going to
be some additional snow with this front as it moves across, and
(unfortunately) there will likely be some gusty north winds for 1 to
2 hours after the arctic front moves across, and this will enhance
the dangerous wind chill values during the morning rush hour period.
There will also be the possibility of blowing and drifting snow with
the boundary passage.

As for snow, accumulations will be low, mainly trace to 2 inch
amounts, with highest amounts Palmer Divide, S mtns and Raton Mesa
region. Some blowing snow will be problematic for an hour or two as
the boundary passes.

Although this front will bring additional cold air into the region,
the temps tonight will not be as cold as this mornings lows due to
the clouds over the region.

After the front goes by, another surge of arctic air will move into
the region tomorrow morning. The coldest air aloft with this system
will be over the area tomorrow afternoon and early evening. Max temps
tomorrow will be in the single digits over most of the plains
tomorrow, with low 10s over the far eastern plains. The warmest area
will likely be over the San Luis Valley with teens anticipated.
Mountains will be below zero for max temps.

Tomorrow night will be cold, but it is likely to be a little warmer
(ambient temps) than what we were thinking earlier as a lee trough is
fcst to develop during the night time hours. Lows Mon nite/Tue may
actually occur Monday evening and may rise a bit during the
overnight hours Tuesday morning as the westerly sfc winds begin to
pick up. Although it may be a bit warmer, the lee trough is going to
increase the westerly sfc winds, and this increase in westerly winds
will likely cause the wind chill values to drop to dangerously low
values. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM MST Sun Jan 19 2025

A slow warm up continues through late week with another minor drop
in temperatures behind a cold front on Wednesday. This slight
temperature drop will mainly be just lee of the mountains and should
only be a couple of degrees, and then temperatures will rebound on
Friday with temperatures reaching the upper 40`s across the plains,
and possibly the low 50`s through the banana belt region and far
eastern plains. With this system on Wednesday, there is a
possibility of an isolated snow shower across the higher elevations
based off model guidance, but it is not currently in our grids. The
next stronger system may come in for next weekend bringing the
potential for more snow and cold to the region, though temperatures
do not look as significantly cold as the previous one. Although it
is still far out and values could change by then, models are showing
high temperatures in the low to mid 30`s for Sunday. As for the
lows, temperatures are expected to reach the low teens across the
plains and upper single digits in the low mountain valleys. As for
snow amounts, model guidance is showing the possibility of a couple
of inches across the plains, and slightly higher amounts in the
higher elevations. Due to model inconsistency, we do not have
precipitation in our grids, but just wanted to touch on what
guidance is showing currently. As always, stay tuned for updates on
a potentially impactful system next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1018 PM MST Sun Jan 19 2025

Arctic air remains in place across the forecast area, and another
cold front scheduled to push south across the Palmer Divide in the
06z-09z time frame will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air, snow,
blowing snow and lowering cigs with ocnl gusty northerly winds for
the eastern plains.

KCOS & KPUB: VFR through 08z, then MVFR with with frequent IFR
conditions from 08z onward for the remainder of the forecast
period due to lowering VSBY and CIGS.

KALS: VFR conditions until 15z tomorrow, then MVFR with
intermittent IFR conditions starting by 18z due to lowering VSBY
and CIGS pushing in from the northeast. VFR conditions
redeveloping tomorrow night by 03z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Cold Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
morning for COZ058>089-093>099.
Cold Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Monday for COZ062-069>071-
077-078-084.
Cold Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Monday for COZ083-085-086-
089-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...CLOUSE
AVIATION...MOORE