Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 071024
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
424 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 419 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020

...Widespread Critical Fire Weather Conditions are Expected Today...

Currently, satellite imagery and upper-air analysis indicate a
closed low has moved onshore near the Oregon and Washington coast,
which puts us in southwest flow under the leading edge of the
associated trough. Satellite imagery also indicates that the region
is under clear skies save for some lingering clouds near the Kansas
border. As of 3 AM, surface observations show that temperatures are
generally in the 50s and 60s across most of the lower elevations
with a few 70s along the lower Arkansas River Valley. Gusty winds
are still being reported over the far eastern plains as well,
otherwise winds are generally light in the lower elevations.

Today and Tonight...The closed low and associated upper-level trough
is expected to propagate from the Pacific Northwest into the
northern Rockies by Monday morning, which puts Colorado squarely in
a southwest flow regime. The southwest flow will continue ushering
in drier air to the region through the day. Meanwhile, an upper-
level ridge over the Midwest barely meanders eastward during this
time, resulting in a tightening of the pressure gradients over
Colorado. The tighter pressure gradients will result in a
strengthening jet streak over the area. At the surface, a lee side
trough over northeast Colorado is also expect to strengthen
throughout the day. The strengthening jet and lee trough will create
strong winds at the surface, especially over the far eastern plains.
Therefore, have decided to issue a High Wind Warning for Kiowa
County for this afternoon and evening where winds are expected to be
strongest nearing 40 mph sustained winds with gusts approaching 60
mph. Elsewhere, winds are expected to be 25-25 mph with gusts to
around 50 mph for most locations across the region. With the drier
air moving in, relative humidity values are expected to be 10-15% or
lower over much of south central and southeastern Colorado later
today. Current Red Flag Warning for today still looks good, so no
changes were made at this time. Temperatures remain unseasonably
warm, especially across the plains where temperatures are expected
to be in the 90s to around 100. Highs in the valleys are expected to
reach the upper 70s to around 80 this afternoon. Lows tonight will
be in the 50s to low 60s across the plains and 30s to 40s in the
high valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 419 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020

Lee troughing and increasing flow out ahead of an approaching
deep upper trough is expected Monday. This will provide continued
fire weather concerns, as another day of low RH values, warm temps
in the 80s and 90s, and windy conditions are expected. Winds and
gusts may not see a notable increase until later in the day Monday
for much of the area, however, do anticipate strengthening south
to southwest winds/gusts by the afternoon time frame. Did not make
any changes to the Fire Weather Watch at this time, with critical
fire weather conditions once again appearing likely. About the
only uncertainty at this time, is if conditions will be met across
El Paso, Crowley, and Kiowa counties. Lingering boundary may hold
in place across this location and if it does, an east southeast
wind may keep some higher RH values in place. At this time though,
it still appears there could be a window of lower RH values for
these locations, with the Fire Weather Watch still valid at this
time.

As this upper level trough swings through Monday evening, will
see surface low push off to the east and a rather strong cold
front surge south through CO. Winds could get rather strong post
FROPA across the plains Monday evening and night, and did increase
winds/gusts during this time. This period will need to be
monitored as I do think there could be a period when northerly
gusts could approach 55-60 mph at times. Guidance is hinting at
some stronger sustained winds, with forecast soundings across part
of the plains showing persistent CAA and mixing which would allow
stronger flow aloft to reach the surface. Precip chances do
increase during this time as well, with this trough helping to
spread showers across parts of the area. At this time, highest
chances look to be for the central mountains and Pikes Peak and
with the colder air mass moving in place, snow showers are
expected. Have maintained some chance pops for the lower
elevations of Teller county and even northern El Paso county late
Monday night into Tuesday morning. Potential setup looking
favorable for precip development along the Palmer Divide, with the
arrival of a colder air mass and stronger forcing possibly
supporting a period of rain/snow showers across some of the lower
elevations. At this time, any snow accumulations for these
locations is appearing on the lighter side, especially for the
lower elevations. Did not introduce pops for additional locations
along the I-25 corridor in El Paso and Pueblo counties, however,
it is possible. Later forecasts may need to introduce pops,
especially early Tuesday morning.

Upper level trough is expected to steadily move east throughout
the day on Tuesday, with some lingering rain shower chances
remaining and cooler conditions in place. Some fire weather
concerns may continue, but with confidence low at this time. A
period of dry weather is then expected Wednesday and Thursday with
warmth returning, but with precip chances returning by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 419 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB for the next 24
hours. Strong south to southwest winds are expected this afternoon
and evening. Due to the very dry conditions, blowing dust could also
occur at any of the 3 terminals, especially over KALS. Visibility
may decrease if blowing dust does develop. Winds diminish during the
overnight hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
evening for COZ220>222-224>237.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for COZ220>222-224>237.

High Wind Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
COZ095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CARLBERG
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...CARLBERG



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