824
FXUS65 KPUB 081836
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1236 PM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire risk continues on Monday.

- Chance for some light precipitation Tue and Tue Night for southern
and eastern areas.

- Increasing critical fire weather concerns mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Colorado currently remains in an area of weaker flow aloft, with a
shortwave passing far to our NNE and a cutoff low far to our
southwest. Rest of today will be warm and dry, with some critical
fire weather conditions over southern I-25.

Tonight into tomorrow, flow aloft will turn westerly, increasing in
strength as the cutoff low begins to slowly move into our region.
Downsloping winds will kick temperatures up, with 70s to low-80s
over the plains and 50s-60s for the valleys. Meanwhile, the stronger
winds and exceedingly dry conditions will allow for more widespread
fire weather concerns. Red Flag Warnings for tomorrow cover most of
I-25 and the San Luis Valley. Areas of greatest concern will be in
and around gap flow areas. Given the increase in flow, have upgraded
the RFW and expanded it east to include Crowley County.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Tuesday-Wednesday...Cutoff low moves past our region to the
south, bringing briefly active weather. Precip chances will
increase over the southern half of our CWA Tuesday morning as
the low brushes past New Mexico, continuing east through the
afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers will move along with
the low, starting over our southern mountains and pushing over
the plains in the afternoon. The strength of showers, as well as
the chance for any thunder, will depend on whether the best
lift with the low coincides with peak heating during the
afternoon. Current guidance supports a few rumbles of thunder,
but generally most of the instability is expected to remain east
and south of our CWA. Temperatures will be warm again,with 60s-
70s across the area. A few short hours of near-critical fire
weather conditions will be possible over the Arkansas River
Valley, near gap flow areas, but currently conditions are too
short lived in the data for any highlights.

The passing system will bring a cold front down over the plains
Tuesday evening into early Wednesday. This may allow precip to
linger a bit longer over the plains Tues Night, while also cooling
things off for Wednesday. High temps will be closer to seasonal
averages, with 50s to low-60s over most areas.

Thursday through Saturday...A very familiar pattern then settles
back in starting Thursday and lasting into the weekend. Brisk west
to northwest flow aloft will bring a return of dry conditions and
above normal temperatures, leading to increased fire danger once
again. The NBM brings isolated moisture back to the central mts
starting Sat evening but confidence is low at this time with that
solution.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1112 AM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3
taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Surface Winds will be light and
diurnally driven.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Monday for COZ222-224-
227-228-231.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ229-230.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MDT Monday for COZ229-230.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...HODANISH/MW