Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 142209
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
309 PM MST Wed Nov 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM MST Wed Nov 14 2018

Currently...

Besides some thin cirrus over parts of the mtns, skies were clear
over the region. Temps at 2 pm over the plains were in the 50s,
except where there is some snow cover down near KTAD region. Temps
also varied in the valleys, where there was no snow cover temps
were in the 40s while snow covered areas were in teh 30s and even
20s. Winds were light region-wide.

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Weather will be tranquil across the region. Weak shortwave ridge
will build over the region during this period and winds in the
atmosphere will be quite light. Min temps tonight will be in the 20s
most of plains, except on the mtns/plains interface where we will
see some 30s. Valleys will be quite cold once again, with single
digits/teens expected. Upper ark rvr valley will be a tad warmer
(20s) as some light west winds are anticipated.

Tomorrow will be similar to today with mostly sunny skies, however
it will be a degree or two warmer.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM MST Wed Nov 14 2018

Operational models and ensembles in decent agreement through much
of the extended period some differences this weekend and into the
middle of next week. Overall confidence is pretty high through the
weekend, with less confidence into next week.

Thursday night through Friday...broad, dry northwest flow is
forecast across the region during this period ahead of southward
moving upper disturbance. Temperatures will fall into the mid to
upper 20s by Friday morning, with highs reaching into the upper
50s to lower 60s by Friday afternoon.

Saturday and Sunday...models in general agreement with an upper
level disturbance dropping south across Colorado over the weekend.
A strong cold front is forecast to move south across the Eastern
Plains by Saturday morning with temperatures expected to be a good
20 degrees cooler Saturday afternoon than seen on Friday. At the
surface, northerly winds will keep cold air in place throughout
the day Saturday. As for precipitation, much will depend on the
storm track. The GFS and NAM have a more westerly storm track,
with a period of upslope flow from Saturday afternoon into Sunday
morning. This would bring a brief period of snowfall to the Palmer
Divide, south into the Eastern Mountains and I-25 corridor during
this period. The ECMWF is more north and easterly with its storm
track bringing a glancing blow to the Palmer Divide and keeping
most precipitation north of the area. For now have low pops for
the Palmer Divide area, south to near Pueblo, with limited
precipitation over the southern half of the Plains. This will need
to be monitored for storm evolution, track and speed, which will
all lead to when and where precipitation will fall.

Monday through Wednesday...once the upper system moves into the
Central Plains, high pressure over the west will build across
Colorado. Broad and dry northwesterly flow aloft will allow for
warming conditions through midweek with mid to upper 50s expected
for afternoon highs across the lower elevations. Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 238 PM MST Wed Nov 14 2018

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites, kpub, kals and kcos. Winds will be light.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH


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