000
FXUS65 KPUB 161745
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1145 AM MDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating
weak westerly flow aloft across region with a high amplitude upper
ridge in place across the Desert Southwest through the Great Basin
and into the Intermountain West, as an upper low across the Northern
High Plains continues to slowly translate east at this time. Water
vapor imagery is also indicating a minor embedded disturbance
translating into western Colorado, with regional radars indicating a
few diminishing showers across the west slope, and GOES16 imagery
indicating mid and high level clouds spreading across the state at
this time. At the sfc, weak lee trough in place across the Plains,
with drier air embedded within the westerly flow aloft being noted
at the sfc, as dewpts across the higher terrain of the Central and
Southwest Mts are in the upper 20s and 30s at this time, with dewpts
over and near the Eastern Mts also falling into the 30s and 40s
early this morning.

Latest model trends indicating minor embedded vort across western
Colorado to help spark another round of scattered storms across the
higher terrain this afternoon, with a few storms spreading east
across the immediate adjacent plains through the late afternoon and
evening. Further east, warming aloft and slightly drier air working
into the region looks to keep convection capped through the early
afternoon, with a few storms possible late in the afternoon and
early evening, as convective temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s are
approached. Convection to be higher based today, however, with weak
westerly steering flow aloft, locally heavy rainfall and the
potential for burn scar flash flooding with remain elevated today.
Temperatures across the area to be at to slightly warmer than
yesterdays values, with highs in the 80s to lower 90s expected
across the lower elevations, and mainly in the 60s and 70s across
the higher terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Upper ridge over the area on Fri as strong upper trough moves
onshore across the Pacific NW. At lower levels, weak easterly
upslope flow will persist across the plains, keeping moisture
levels fairly high (PWAT above 1"), while recycled moisture (PWAT
around 0.75") remains in place across the mountains. Orographic
lift and weak upward motion from minor upper trough crossing the
area will initiate storms over the higher terrain by mid-
afternoon Fri, though a few models suggest a late morning start
to convection along the eastern mountains and I-25, where moist
air mass will quickly destabilize. Storms then migrate to lower
elevations and across the plains late Thu afternoon into the
evening, with potential MCS sliding from sern CO into the TX
Panhandle overnight. Main threat from Fri storms will be heavy
rain, as 0-6km shear remains under 30 kts and weak upper level
winds suggest rather slow storm movement. Max temps Fri may cool
just a few degf from Thu as clouds/precip develop fairly early.

Upper trough then swings through the Central Rockies on Sat,
bringing a period of rather strong upward motion to the eastern
mountains and plains Sat afternoon and evening. Again, should see
storms initiate in the early afternoon over the eastern mountains,
then push onto the plains later in the day. Severe risk looks
higher as 0-6km shear increases into the 40-50 kt range
along/east of the mountains, with SWODY3 showing marginal risk for
severe from I-25 eastward. Storms then look to congeal into an
MCS over the sern plains by evening, leading to a threat of heavy
rain over much of the east before system shifts south and east
away from CO by early Sun morning. Farther west, isolated to sct
tsra over the mountains and interior valleys Sat afternoon, though
activity may weaken and tend to dissipate toward evening as drier
air works into the region under the upper jet. Max temps Sat
creep upward just a degf or two with slightly more sun early in
the day.

Upper trough then deepens over the Central Plains on Sun, with
subsidence and drier nly flow developing across CO. Suppose we
could see some weak convection near the KS border and over the
mountains in the afternoon with residual moisture lingering,
though precip will in general by light and very spotty. Expect
max temps around 5f cooler than Sat over the eastern half of the
region, while mountains and interior valleys see little change.
For Mon-Thu, returning e-se low level flow will bring moisture
back to the eastern mountains and plains, while mid level moisture
rotates back into the area around the swrn U.S. upper high. Should
see convective chances ramp back up as early as Mon, with storm
chances persisting until mid-week under favorable nwly flow
regime. Temps will creep back up toward seasonal averages by Wed-
Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Afternoon heating will initiate another round of diurnal
convection today. The first cells isolated cells of the day are
developing over the mountain peaks at this time. Cell development
will continue through the afternoon gradually transitioning from
isolated to scattered areal coverage. Storms will spread off the
mountains onto the plains along the I-25 corridor late this
afternoon into the evening. A few storm clusters will then
progress eastward across the plains through midnight. Primary
storm concerns today will be lightning, wind gusts to around 50
mph and locally heavy rain. Some isolated small hail will also be
possible.

The KCOS, KPUB and KALS terminals will all be subject to
thunderstorms today. The potential for storms is pretty equal
at all 3 sites. Onset will be earliest at KALS (19z), followed by
KCOS (22z), followed by KPUB (23z). Generally VFR expected at the
terminals except during periods of convective weather.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW