350
FXUS65 KPUB 140906
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
306 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening,
  initiating over the mountains, and spreading east across the
  Plains.

- Temperatures will warm into the mid 80s to mid 90s this
  afternoon across the Plains, and lower 80s for the San Luis
  Valley.

- Daily afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected
  through the long term period, with the greatest probabilities
  over the mountains for Tuesday, then all areas for Wednesday
  and onward.

- Cold front to cool temperatures briefly for Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Currently...satellite imagery early this morning shows widespread
mid and high cloud cover across western portions of Colorado
associated with an upper disturbance moving south into New Mexico.
Precipitation has come to an end across southern Colorado as the
upper wave continues south.  Temperatures are quite mild with upper
60s to mid 70s across the lower elevations.

Today...upper level high pressure over the Great Basin will drift
southward as an upper shortwave trough dives southeast across
Colorado.  This upper wave will lead to another round of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms, with initial develop across the higher
terrain.  This activity will shift southeast off the higher terrain,
and into the adjacent Plains by late afternoon.  Low level moisture
will be present, with dewpoints in the upper 40s to mid 50s across
the Plains with southeast flow keeping it in place.  SBCAPE values
near 1000 j/kg look to be in place across the Plains, with the
highest values expected over the Palmer Divide.  But, 0-6 km shear
looks weak, at around 15 to 20 kts.  Given the parameters, the main
thunderstorms risks will be lightning, locally heavy rainfall, wind
gusts near 50 mph and half inch hail.  If a storm were to approach
severe limits, it may most likely across the Palmer Divide.
Temperatures this afternoon look to reach from the mid 80s to mid
90s across the Plains, and lower 80s across the San Luis Valley.

Tonight...the upper shortwave will continue southeast from north
central Colorado into southwest Kansas by morning.  Showers and
thunderstorms will be ongoing across the higher terrain into the I-
25 corridor during the evening hours, dissipating has they track
east over the Plains.  The main thunderstorm risks this evening east
of I-25 will be lightning, wind gusts to 40 mph and locally heavy
rainfall.  Model guidance has all thunderstorm activity done around
midnight, with dry conditions prevailing into Tuesday morning.
Overnight lows will once again be mild, with mainly lower 60s on the
Plains, and upper 40s across the San Luis Valley. Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Other than a slight delay on an incoming cold front midweek, the
general weather pattern through the extended period has not changed
much. There will be a daily shot of afternoon and evening
convection, with the best chance across the higher terrain for
Tuesday. Frontal passage will temporarily cool at least the eastern
plains midweek, then precipitation chances start to ramp up for the
upcoming weekend.

Tuesday...A weak upper low drops down into the Pacific NW and
Intermountain West Tue, strengthening the west-northwest flow aloft
across the northern US. Meanwhile, broad high pressure over CA will
start to weaken while another high center over the southeastern US
starts to build. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day of the extended
period as southerly surface winds help temps warm quickly, ahead of
an approaching cold front. Shower and thunderstorm coverage becomes
likely across the higher terrain, with isolated activity pushing
east across the plains during the evening. Plan on highs across the
high valleys to be in the mid to upper 80s, and 90s to around 100F
for the plains.

Wednesday and Thursday...The upper low over the Pacific NW on Tue
will weaken and move east across the Rockies overnight into early
Wed morning as an open wave. That will force a cold front south into
CO Wed morning, with the front pushing across the Palmer Divide and
into the southeast plains by midday. Due to this later expected
frontal passage, high temps on Wed are forecast to drop down to
right around normal levels, then eventually cool to below normal for
Thu. The resultant easterly upslope surface flow will aid in
moisture advection, and scattered to likely convection is
anticipated for all areas by Wed late afternoon and carry over
through Thu. Look for highs in the 80s for the high valleys both
days, while the plains will warm into the mid 80s to mid 90s for
Wed, then the 80s on Thu.

Friday through Sunday...The upper pattern is still sporting a
monsoon-like look through the upcoming weekend, with an upper high
over the Gulf and an upper low sitting over the CA Baja. Convection
potential remains elevated and widespread, with near normal
temperatures all three days. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites (KALS, KCOS,
KPUB) for the next 24 hours. Winds will remain light and variable
overnight. Scattered to broken mid and upper-level cloud decks will
persist through much of the forecast period. Another round of
showers and thunderstorms will be possible (30% chance) at all three
stations tomorrow, mainly after 21Z and persisting into the evening
before clearing after 04/05Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOZLEY