000
FXUS65 KPUB 211238
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
638 AM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 AM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

The Winter Weather Advisory for the Continental Divide was allowed
to expire at 6 AM. Also, updated PoPs to represent current
radar and short term model trends. Snow showers continue across
the eastern mountains, and brief rain/snow showers are expanding
across portions of the I-25 corridor and southeast plains.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 445 AM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

...Lingering Light Precipitation Chances End by This Evening...

Currently, a closed mid-level low is advancing east across the
forecast area through the eastern Colorado plains. Overnight
accumulating snowfall has ended across El Paso County, though
isolated light showers persist. A wave of isolated/scattered light
snow/rain showers is developing across portions of the I-25
corridor, and east along HWY 50 through Bent County. Winds are
generally light with an eastern component, skies are overcast, and
temperatures span the low 30s to mid 40s across the plains.

Today, isolated to scattered precipitation chances will hold on
across the plains and mountains as weak forcing associated with the
exiting mid-level system persists . Snow showers will come to an end
across the continental divide this morning, with less than an inch
of additional accumulation expected. Snow showers will hold on
slightly longer across the Sangre`s, Wet`s and Pikes Peak, where an
additional couple of inches is possible across the high peaks.
Teller and northern El Paso Counties may also see additional
accumulating snowfall, with less than a half inch expected with any
snow showers that do develop. For the lower elevation plains,
precipitation is expected to stay liquid. Winds will generally
remain below 15 mph out of the northeast, and skies will remain
cloudy. Afternoon high temperatures across the plains and high
valleys will span the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Tonight, heights will rise over Colorado as a ridge builds behind
the exiting storm system. Winds will become light, precipitation
will come to an end early, and skies will clear from west to east.
Overnight lows should only fall into the low/mid 30s across the
plains, and 20s in the San Luis Valley. Line

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 445 AM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Sunday-Monday...Northwest flow aloft across the region early Sunday
moderates and becomes more west to southwest Sunday night, as short
wave upper level ridging builds across the Rockies. Westerly flow
increases through the day Monday, as Pacific Northwest upper trough
is progged to translate across the Northern Great Basin and into the
Northern Rockies Monday afternoon. Models indicating some modest
available moisture across the area on Sunday, along with a minor
wave embedded within the flow, leading to the potential for isolated
to scattered afternoon and evening showers and a possible
thunderstorm, mainly across the higher terrain of the ContDvd. The
NAM and GFS solutions are seemingly overdone with convective
coverage, giving current parameters, and stayed closer to the EC`s
more isolated coverage. Better coverage of afternoon showers and
storms over and near the higher terrain looks to be on Monday, with
increasing uvv ahead of the Great Basin upper trough.  Temperatures
on Sunday at to slightly below seasonal norms in the 60s across the
lower elevations and mainly in the 40s and 50s across the higher
terrain, warm into the mid 60s to mid 70s across the lower
elevations on Monday.

Monday night-Tuesday night...Models have been trending a tad
stronger and deeper with the Great Basin trough as is digs across
the Rockies Monday night and Tuesday, leading to better coverage of
showers spreading across the higher terrain and out across the
Southeast Plains Monday night. Passing wave sends a cool front
across Eastern Colorado early Tuesday morning, with cool upslope
developing across the Plains through the day and temperatures some
10 to 20 degrees cooler than Monday, most notable across The Plains.
Latest models are also indicating another round of showers across
the area Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially over and near the
higher terrain.

Wednesday-Friday...Drier and warmer weather across the area Wednesday
gives way to increasing chances of showers, especially over and near
the higher terrain on Thursday, as another upper trough digs across
the Rockies within the northwest flow aloft. Drier and warmer
weather again returns across the area on Friday, as upper level
ridging across the Great Basin builds into the Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 445 AM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Winds around 10 knots or less out of the north at all three TAF
sites (KALS, KCOS, KPUB) this morning will turn east to southeast
this afternoon/early evening before becoming light. VCSH are
possible at all three sites this morning. MVFR conditions at KALS,
KCOS and KPUB this morning will become VFR by late morning. MVFR
conditions will likely return Saturday evening at KCOS. VFR
conditions are expected at KALS over the next 24 hours.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for COZ072-073-076-
080>082.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LINE
SHORT TERM...LINE
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LINE