156
FXUS65 KPUB 120520
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1120 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms lasting through the evening over the
southeast plains, marginal severe wx and local heavy rain possible.

- Cooler tomorrow with a lesser amount of showers and
  storms(some still strong w/locally heavy rain).

- Daily afternoon and evening shower and storms are expected
  through the long term period.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Updated the cancel the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Las Animas
and Baca Counties, as the severe threat has diminished. A few
strong storms will remain possible through midnight across Kiowa
into northern Prowers Counties. Hail near 1 inch in diameter and
wind gusts near 60 mph will be possible until the storms
decrease in intensity as they track eastward. Mozley

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Currently, early this afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms
were noted along mtns/plains interface with dry conditions
elsewhere. Temps were in the 80s across nearly all of the plains
with 70s valleys and 50s and 60s mtns. Mesoanalysis indicated about
500-1000 J/kg of CAPE were noted on the plains with 20-25 knts of
shear. PWATs were about normal over the plains but it was quite dry
over the interior valleys.

Showers and tstorms will continue ot increase and push out onto the
plains. Guidance continues to indicate it will be more of a later
show as most of the storms will not get their acts together until
early this evening over the plains. With just modest cape and shear
available, primarily expect strong to marginally svr storms with
some locally heavy rain possible. storms will move slowly east
through the evening hours and I would not be too surprised to see
several storms still ongoing across the far eastern plains around
midnight. Any storms which train could cause some locally flooding
issues over the eastern plains later this evening.

Skies will likely remain rather cloudy tonight over the plains and
some guidance keeps showers going well into the overnight hours. dry
and clear conditions are anticipated over the mtns and valleys.

For tomorrow, skies will gradually clear over the plains, and it
will be rather very cool tomorrow as max temps are only expected to
get into the 70s and 80s over the plains. The San Luis Valley may
actually be warmer than the SE CO plains tomorrow due to the cooler
air advecting onto the plains. There will likely be some showers and
storms tomorrow, but once again it will be a late show due to the
cooler air over the plains. Overall, the best areas of unstable air
tomorrow will likely be along the mtns/plains interface, and this is
where the best chance of precip will be tomorrow. Storms should
clear relatively quickly tomorrow early evening. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 329 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Sunday - Thursday: Through the long term period, active weather
is expected each day, as showers and storms impact portions of
the region. Overall, not much has changed from previous long
term forecast, with messy northwesterly to northerly expected to
be in place as a ridge of high pressure sits across the
southwestern US. While no major forcing is still expected,
orographic forcing will be in place with this flow pattern,
along with periods of enhanced forcing from frontal surges late
in this period. With these forcing mechanisms, along with
moisture still in place each day, daily afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms are expected. The highest coverage of
showers and storms is anticipated to remain along the mountains,
where forcing will be maximized. With that said though, greater
coverage is expected to expand across the plains around midweek
next week as the aforementioned cold fronts push across the
area. And like most summer days, a strong thunderstorm or two
can`t be ruled out, with frequent lightning, gusty outflow winds
around 40 mph, small hail, and brief periods of heavy rain the
most likely hazards with any more organized convection. Beyond
all of that, breezy winds and increased afternoon and evening
cloud cover are expected each day. Looking at temperatures,
through Tuesday, near seasonal temperatures are anticipated for
much of the area. Then for Wednesday and Thursday, a cool down
to below seasonal values is expected thanks to the cold front
passage.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1116 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

KALS...VFR conditions overnight into Saturday morning. Gusty
east winds look to dissipate after midnight becoming light and
variable. Showers and thunderstorms look to develop across the
San Luis Valley by mid Saturday afternoon, with reduced CIGS and
VIS along with gusty outflow winds possible at the terminal.

KCOS and KPUB...low level easterly flow should allow for stratus
development overnight into Saturday morning with CIGS in the 3-5
kft range. A few showers and thunderstorms look to develop late
Saturday afternoon across the higher terrain, and confidence in
one impacting the terminals is low at this time. KPUB may see
the best chances in the late afternoon and early evening.
Outflow winds in excess of 30 kts may be possible.  Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH/MOZLEY
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MOZLEY