Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 131526
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1025 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Frontal boundary that brought Thu heavy precip has moved into N FL
under the influence of brisk southerly flow thru the H100-H70 lyr.
Morning RAOBs/RAP40 analysis continue to show a saturated H100-H85
lyr over central FL, but decreasing moisture over south FL with H100-
70 mean RH decreasing to 50-60pct. Temps aloft remain quite cold
with H50 readings btwn -11C/-12C. Weak band of shras over the I-4
corridor producing -RA, otherwise WX pattern is quiet.

Short wave trof approaching the MS River Valley will interact with
the wrn flank of a high pres ridge over the W Atlc to maintain the
southerly flow acrs central FL today...S/SE thru midday bcmg S/SW
this aftn. These winds will continue to tap the drier and more
stable air over south FL, keeping PoPs AOB 40pct...though cool temps
aloft will require tsras in the fcst this aftn/evng. Warm air
advection generated by the southerly flow will push aftn temps near
the 80F mark areawide. No sig changes.


&&

.AVIATION...Thru 15/12Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 13/18Z...S/SE 6-9KTS. Btwn 13/18Z-13/21Z...bcmg S/SW
7-10KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Prevailing cigs btwn FL080-100. Btwn 13/15Z-13/23Z...
lcl MVFR cigs in brief shras.

&&

.MARINE...
Sfc obs show Thu`s wind surge has fully subsided nearshore, though
offshore winds still holding on to the 15-20KT range. Large swells
still pushing into the lcl Atlc, pushing nearshore seas into the 4-
6FT range...offshore seas 5-7FT. Will allow the nearshore SCA to
expire as planned...maintaining offshore SCA thru this aftn.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Coastal
     Volusia-Indian River-Martin-Northern Brevard-Southern
     Brevard-St. Lucie.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line
     to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line
     to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Saturday for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
     Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation...Bragaw
Long Term/Impact WX...Negron
DATAC.................Watson


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