Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 070048

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
749 PM EST Sat Mar 6 2021


Current-Overnight...The majority of any widespread shower activity
has ended though isolated to scattered light rain showers may
persist through the evening with the trend continuing downward
overnight. Amounts generally light. Some hail was reported in
Volusia County earlier today as the freezing level was lower than
normal and very cold air aloft was observed from local soundings.
The pressure gradient tightens this evening/overnight behind the
latest cold front and N/NE winds will increase to 10-15 mph, perhaps
a little higher, with frequent higher gusts. Along with some
slightly drier air slowly creeping southward overnight, expect min
temps to fall into the 50s, perhaps U40s for portions of inland
Volusia and north Lake counties and general 50s most everywhere

Sun...Mostly dry conditions are expected behind the front with a
slight chance of showers remaining along the immediate Treasure
Coast. N/NE winds becoming breezy/gusty at 15-20 mph areawide,
though highest gusts along the coast. Afternoon highs will be cooler
than normal for this time of year with highs in the M-U60s across
the north, and a few L70s far south.


.Aviation...Noticing some lower CIGs near FL020 (MVFR) slipping
southward behind latest boundary. MOS guidance hints at improvement
through the daylight morning hours on Sun becoming VFR areawide.
N/NNE winds 10-15 kts and gusty tonight increasing during the day on
Sun to 15-20 kts with frequent higher gusts. Shower activity
decreasing thru late tonight, though do have some "Vicinity" wording
and a couple tempo groups as applicable. Mostly dry on Sun, but may
see a few ISOLD showers near KVRB, KFPR, and KSUA early in the


.Marine...Overnight-Sun...Poor to Hazardous marine conditions for
small craft as winds increase and seas build tonight through Sun.
Small Craft Advisories in place area wide by early Sun morning.
Winds increasing in upwards of 25 kts over the open Atlc with
frequent higher gusts. Seas building to 7-10 ft Gulf Stream and 5-7
ft near shore.

SCT-NMRS showers and ISOLD lightning storms over the Gulf Stream
tonight with activity gradually diminishing from north to south into

Mariners of small craft over inland lakes and the intracoastals
should use extreme caution if venturing out on Sun due to the
potential to capsize.


.Fire Weather...Sun...Drier air filters southward down the peninsula
in the afternoon. Locations N/W of I-4 could see min low RH values
35-40pct later in the day.


AM...Small Craft Advisory through 4 AM EST Monday for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
     Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County
     Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.



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