Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 070858
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
458 AM EDT Fri May 7 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Today...A frontal boundary is currently pushing through Lake and
Volusia counties and will reach south FL later this morning. Some
patchy low clouds are assocd with the front and a brief shower is
possible with frontal passage but coverage too low to mention. NW
winds will increase after sunrise and become gusty at times,
around 20 mph. Much drier air will overspread the area and produce
a sunny day with noticeably low humidity. It will still be warm
with max temps reaching the mid 80s; upper 80s across the south
interior (i.e. Okeechobee, intrr Treasure coast). Very seasonable
temperatures for early May.

Tonight...Light north winds and the very dry airmass will allow
temps to fall into the mid and upper 50s across much of the
interior and inland portions of the coastal counties; low to mid
60s along the coast.

Saturday-Sunday... High pressure will continue to build over
northern Florida. A weak mid/upper level ridge will set-up over
eastern CONUS as a zonal longwave pattern sets up over the country.
This will keep the region dry and warm through the weekend. Winds
will be from the north-northeast on Saturday as high pressure moves
in from the west which will keep temperatures moderated a bit with
highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the low 60s to low 70s.
Winds will switch from the south-southeast on Sunday which will help
pump in warmer temperatures with highs reaching the mid 80s to low
90s and lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Monday-Thursday... Moisture will increase through Tuesday as
southeast flow continues with the surface ridge axis draping over
Florida. The return of significant moisture and WAA, will interact
with the seabreeze to create isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms daily mainly Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures
will warm up a bit heading into early next week, with highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s
Sunday through Wednesday. A better chance for rain will come on
Wednesday and Thursday as a frontal boundary parks over northern
Florida. Scattered showers and storms will be possible areawide,
especially in the afternoon/early evening hours with daytime
heating and sea breeze interactions. Highs will stay in the upper
80s to low 90s with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
There may be brief MVFR CIGs through 13Z as a frontal boundary
pushes south across the area early this morning, otherwise VFR.
Behind the front, NW winds 10-14 knots with gusts up to 20 knots,
veering NE along the coast aft 18Z. Tonight, light north 5 knots
interior and 5-10 knots coastal terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...A frontal boundary is crossing central FL and the local
Atlc waters early this morning. Northwest winds behind the front
will increase 15-20 knots offshore Volusia and Brevard early this
morning where a small craft Caution is in effect. NW winds 12-15
knots expected elsewhere immediately behind the front. Then the
pressure gradient will weaken across the northern waters allowing
winds speeds to decrease 5-10 knots, but remaining 10-15 knots
across the south. Seas will build 2-4 feet, reaching 5 feet in
the Gulf Stream. Tonight...as high pressure builds over the area,
north winds will get reinforced across the northern waters,
possibly needing another brief Caution headline this evening.

Saturday-Tuesday... Winds from the northeast will continue on
Saturday as high pressure builds over northern Florida. Onshore
flow will return by Saturday afternoon as the high pressure ridge
moves east into the Atlantic. Southeasterly flow will be moderate
Saturday night up to 15 knots and persist into early next week
with waves reaching 3-5ft in the offshore waters. Winds will
increase from the southeast at around 14-20kts on Monday and
continue into Tuesday with waves of 2-4ft expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today...Sensitive fire weather day. NW winds behind a frontal
passage will advect very dry air into the area. Min RH values will
reach 20-25 percent over the interior with 20 ft winds 13-15 mph
with some higher gusts. While conditions should remain below Red
Flag criteria, any new or existing fires may spread rapidly,
including any smoldering fires started by yesterday`s lightning
storms.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  83  56  79  64 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  86  58  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  85  59  82  68 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  85  60  82  66 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  84  56  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  85  57  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  86  61  86  66 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  86  59  82  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelly
LONG TERM....Fehling


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