Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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745
FXUS62 KMLB 170920
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
520 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...

...Hazardous Boating Conditions Especially Near Inlets Today...
...Rough Surf and High Risk of Rip Currents at the Beaches...

Today...GOES derived Total Precipitable Water indicates dry air is
filtering in across much of the northern and central Florida
peninsula. It will be a mostly clear, dry day with limited shower
activity confined to the Atlantic waters. Dry will also mean hot,
with afternoon temperatures forecast to reach low 90s along the
coast and mid 90s inland. Even though the heat won`t be
oppressive, dew points in the 60s/low 70s by mid afternoon, those
doing outdoor activities should take plenty of breaks and stay
hydrated. Beach conditions to stay very hazardous to swimmers
with a high risk of rip currents and 4-6 foot waves breaking along
the coast.

Tonight...Continued dry conditions for most of the area as overnight
lows settle in the low to mid 70s. Moisture returns to the area, so
may see a few showers along the Saint Lucie and Martin County coasts
after midnight.

Wed...A deepening mid level trough over the Canadian maritimes and
western Atlc will scoop up "Humberto" and push a sfc trough
southward across FL. Increasing moisture will raise shower chances
and have drawn 40-50 PoPs along the I 4 corridor with lower rain
chances 20-30 PoPs to the south. Enough sfc heating and some
cooling aloft should produce some thunderstorms. Max temps will
not be quite as warm due to increased cloud cover and precip but
should still reach the lower 90s over the interior, upper 80s
coast.

Thu...Tightening NE pressure gradient will produce a windy day esp
at the coast with sustained winds 20 mph and gusty. This will
likely require a Lake Wind Advisory. Much drier air will move in
at the mid levels but the brisk flow off the Atlc will produce
marine stratocu and isolated fast moving showers. Max temps will
be held to the mid 80s most areas, except upper 80s far interior
(Lake county). These temps are actually slightly below normal and
what may be more noticeable is dewpoints dropping into the mid and
upper 60s.

Fri-Mon...Sfc high is forecast to pinch off over the southern
Appalachians Fri then push east and off the SC coast this weekend.
This will weaken the pressure gradient over central FL allowing
winds to veer easterly and gradually subside. The 00Z GFS and
ECMWF show deeper moisture remaining just to our south and east.
Will show isolated to scattered showers that push onshore from
the Atlc, mainly across southern sections (Treasure coast) given
the proximity of higher moisture but deep convection (thunder) is
not expected at this time. Max temps will be mid 80s coast and
upper 80s/near 90 inland.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions prevail. Dry. Increasing north winds through the day,
with gusts around 15-20 knots in the mid afternoon, then settling
back down to 5-10 knots after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. Hurricane Humberto
continues generating a large, long period swell across the Florida
Atlantic waters. Hazardous boating to continue today as seas remain
6-7 feet nearshore and 8-9 feet offshore, making conditions
particularly hazardous near inlets. North winds around 15 knots
will produce very choppy conditions.

Tonight...Northeast winds decrease to 10-15 knots but combined
seas will not diminish. Conditions will remain hazardous to small
craft, especially at the inlets with a heavy chop expected to
continue. For this reason, the Small Craft Advisory has been
extended through the overnight.

Wed-Sat...Sfc high pressure will build down the eastern seaboard
Wed and push a frontal boundary south across the area. NE winds
will start out 10-15 knots early Wed but conditions will
deteriorate by aftn as a tightening pressure gradient produces a
fresh NE flow through late week. Wind speeds of 20 knots with
occasional 20-25 knots offshore are expected Wed night through Fri
with wind direction veering from NE Wed to East on Friday. Even
as "Humberto" continues to move away from the area, large long
period swells generated by the hurricane will propagate into the
coastal waters and surf zone. Combination of wind wave and swell
will produce seas 10-12 feet over the open Atlc/Gulf Stream and
7-9 feet nearshore. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed
through at least Saturday and a High Surf Advisory will likely be
needed for the entire EC FL coast beginning Wed night or Thu.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  72  87  73 /   0  10  50  20
MCO  93  74  90  72 /   0  10  40  10
MLB  90  77  88  75 /  10  10  30  20
VRB  90  74  88  72 /  10  10  30  20
LEE  95  73  92  72 /   0  10  30  10
SFB  93  73  90  71 /   0  10  40  20
ORL  93  74  90  72 /   0  10  40  10
FPR  91  75  87  73 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for Flagler Beach
     to Jupiter Inlet out to 60 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rodriguez
LONG TERM....Kelly



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