Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 260045
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
845 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Evng RAOBs show the FL peninsula under a stable and fairly dry
airmass...PWat values btwn 0.75"-1.00" over north/central FL,
increasing to arnd 1.25" over south FL/FL Keys. While much of the
moisture is trapped blo an H85-H70 subsidence inversion, dew point
depressions blo H70 are largely AOA 5C. Meanwhile, brisk W/SW flow
prevails abv 2KFT, generated by a large frontal trof that extends
from the Lwr MS Valley to the Mid Atlc Coast. This trof is embedded
within a mid/upr lvl flow pattern with a strong zonal component that
will shunt it into the FL Big Bend/ern Panhandle overnight.

The east coast sea breeze (as tracked by the MCO TDWR) has making
steady, albeit, slow inland progress, but as of mid evng, was still
positioned east of the I-4 Corridor. Final vsbl sat images show the
west coast sea breeze as quite diffuse with minimal cloud cover btwn
the two. Latest RAP40 analysis shows minimal mid lvl vorticity/omega
lift or upr lvl divergence in place over central FL. Aside from
isold shras that dvlpd east of Lake-O late this aftn (that have
since moved offshore), the lcl radars have been quiet.

The offshore flow abv 2KFT will keep any nocturnal coastal shras
offshore, and the airmass over the interior is too dry/stable to
support any meaningful chance of precip. A weak cold front will push
into north Florida late in the night. Low temps will range from the
U50s/L60s along and north of I-4, and in the L/M60s along the Space
and Treasure Coasts. No updates necessary this evng.

&&

.AVIATION...Thru 27/00Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 26/04Z...coastal sites S/SE 8-12KTS bcmg S/SW 4-
7KTS...interior sites W/SW 7-11KTS bcmg W 3-6KTS. Btwn 26/12Z-
26/15Z...bcmg W/NW 6-10KTS. Btwn 26/18Z-26/21Z...bcmg N/NW 8-12KTS.
Btwn 26/21Z-26/24Z...coastal sites bmcg N/NE 8-12KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Thru 26/18Z...VFR all sites. Aft 26/18Z...coastal
sites slgt chc MVFR shras.

&&

.MARINE...
A frontal trof over the Carolinas/Deep South will press into the FL
Big Bend/East FL Peninsula overnight, shunting the wrn extension of
the Atlc ridge axis seaward. This will force sfc/bndry lyr winds to
shift from a gentle to moderate S/SE breeze this evng to a gentle to
moderate W/NW breeze by daybreak Tue. Seas arnd 2FT nearshore and 2-
3FT offshore...building up to 4FT over the Gulf Stream by daybreak.
Isold shras south of Cape Canaveral, mainly in the Gulf Stream. No
sig changes with the evng update.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Tuesday to 10 PM EDT Thursday
     for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 10 PM EDT Thursday
     for Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning for
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Thursday for
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm- Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday morning for
     Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 10 PM EDT Thursday
     for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday morning for
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation...Bragaw
Long Term/Impact WX...Cristaldi



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