Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 191910
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
310 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

.DISCUSSION...

...High Rain Chances Through the Weekend...

Current...High clouds have tempered temperatures a little today, but
afternoon highs are still expected to reach around 90 along the
coast and the low to mid 90s inland. This has also slowed the
development of the sea breeze from Titusville to Melbourne. So far
only a couple very quick pulse showers have popped up along the sea
breeze near Vero Beach and Fort Pierce.

Rest of Today-Friday...A shower or two and a lightning storm remain
possible along the sea breeze as it moves inland. The highest
chances for rain will be the in western Okeechobee county, around
30%, and 20% across the rest of the interior along the sea breeze
collision. Mid level ridging is proving to be very effective at
suppressing convection today, so expecting showers and storms to be
quick lived and clear by sunset. Calm conditions overnight, with
lows in the low 70s.

Friday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Northward flow of deep
moisture (PWATs 1.8"-2.0") reaches the southernmost CWA near
sunrise, the overspreads ECFL from S-N during Fri. Forced ascent
will increase due to a weak vort lobe lifting north across the
eastern GOMEX/western FL, to the west of a building ridge. This
combo will lead to early onset of diurnal convection, with
showers/storms becoming numerous-widespread during the day and
lingering well into the evening. While H85-50 steering flow is more
well-defined (south at 10-15kt), convection in such high PWAT air
will be very efficient at producing rainfall. S-N training of higher
dBZ echoes along the inland moving ECSB is also likely to at least
some degree before secondary regeneration along storm outflows
becomes more dominant. Areal rainfall totals will be 1-2" in many
areas, but could reach 3-5"+ in some locations, especially over the
interior. Hot afternoon conditions still expected, U80s-90F along
the immediate coast and 90-94F inland, but still some uncertainty
defendant on how convection evolves through the afternoon.

Saturday-Monday (previous)...Mid level ridge will extend from Cuba
across the Bahamas to offshore the mid Atlantic coast through Sat
night, then expands westward into FL through Mon. Low level ridge
axis over central FL lifts north of the area, placing ECFL in
prevailing light SE flow regime. Deep moisture remains in place Sat,
with numerous-widespread diurnal convection getting another early
start. Slightly higher coverage expected north/inland, where highest
PWATs will combined with late day boundary interactions. Locally
heavy rainfall totals (2-4"+) possible once again in some locations.

Slightly lower PWATs Sun-Mon should lead to only scattered coverage
with POPs 30 coast/40 inland. Max temps U80s coast/L90s inland with
mins in the U60s-L70s.

Tuesday-Thursday...Mid level ridge will maintain itself through at
least mid week, with the ECM alone for now in showing the ridge
collapsing Thu as a short wave trough moves across FL. Went with a
persistence forecast from Mon w/r/t both POPs and max/min temps.

&&

.AVIATION...
Predominantly VFR conditions this afternoon and tonight, then
increasing rain chances Friday. SSW winds switching onshore behind
the sea breeze. Isolated showers and lightning storms possible along
the sea breeze as it progresses inland and collides with the west
coast sea breeze, but coverage expected to be low so only VC
mention. Light and variable winds tonight becoming SSE. Some early
showers then enhanced diurnal convection Friday. Numerous to wide
spread shower and thunderstorms expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Rest of Today-Friday...Favorable boating conditions outside of
showers and storms. High pressure will build in the from the
Atlantic with the ridge axis extending to the eastern Caribbean. Dry
this evening and tonight, then increasing rain chances Friday.
Widespread to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected. S/SE
winds 10-15 knots, easing to 5-10 knots overnight, then freshening
back to 10-15 knots Friday. Seas 2-3 feet.

Saturday-Tuesday(modified previous)...Atlantic high pressure ridge
lifts north of the area through early next week. South winds Sat
will shift onshore in the afternoon behind the ECSB, with winds
remaining out of the SE through the reminder of the forecast period.
Prevailing wind speeds remain in the 10-15kt range with seas 2-3ft.

However, concern for marine interests will be the high coverage of
storms producing locally higher winds/seas Sat. Lower coverage
(scattered) of showers/storms is expected for Sun-Tue.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Listed below are the record highs for today, May 19th.

Site         May 19
Daytona Bch 94 (1995)
Leesburg    94 (1991)
Sanford     97 (1960)
Orlando     98 (1908)
Melbourne   95 (1995)
Vero Beach  95 (1995)
Fort Pierce 97 (1995)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  92  71  85 /  10  70  40  80
MCO  73  94  72  90 /  20  90  50  80
MLB  74  89  73  87 /  10  70  50  70
VRB  72  90  71  88 /  10  80  50  60
LEE  72  92  71  87 /  10  90  50  80
SFB  73  93  72  88 /  20  80  50  80
ORL  75  94  74  90 /  20  90  50  80
FPR  72  89  72  88 /  10  80  50  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haley
LONG TERM....Leahy
AVIATION...Haley


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