Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 141923
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
323 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Currently-Tonight...Sea breeze boundaries pushing inland will lead
to scattered shower/thunderstorm development across the area into
the afternoon. HRRR/WRF runs continue to favor greatest rain chances
across or just east of I-4 corridor where outflow/sea breeze
boundary collisions are expected to occur late in the afternoon and
toward sunset. Slow storm motion toward the northeast may then send
storms back toward the Brevard/Volusia coast and just offshore
before they weaken into this evening. A few strong storms will
continue to be possible, especially along boundary collisions.

Wed-Thu...Drier airmass gradually builds into the area in S/SE flow
as ridge axis shifts north and across central Florida. The GFS/NAM
are much drier than the latest ECMWF, but all models show a lowering
rain chance trend through the period. Greatest chance for rain
(around 30-40 percent) shift toward the northern interior Wednesday
afternoon where sea breeze boundary collisions and deepest moisture
will reside. Then as drier air continues to move in rain chances
lower to 20-30 percent on Thursday. Lower than normal storm coverage
will lead to highs along the coast reaching around 90 degrees and
into the low to mid 90s over the interior.

Fri-Mon...(Modified Previous Discussion) For the end of the week,
the atmosphere will remain dry with winds from the southeast,
keeping the lower rain chances towards the inland areas. The
Atlantic ridge (from surface to mid levels) then shifts slightly
southward across the Florida peninsula during the weekend and into
Monday. Models have moisture gradually increasing in low level S/SW
flow, with rain chances rising through the period. However, not
expecting more than isolated to scattered coverage of showers and
storms each day. High temperatures will continue to reach the low
90s over most areas, but mid 90s will continue to be possible over
the interior.

&&

.AVIATION...East coast sea breeze formed earlier today, except at
KDAB but overall the convection has been limited along it. The main
chance for storms through about sunset looks to be KSFB-KMCO-KISM-
KTIX-KDAB where sea and outflow boundaries interact. After the
convection dies out by late evening, it will be VFR overnight.  On
Wed, the surface ridge axis will nudge into central Florida and some
drier air will work in from the southeast. This will shift the
chance for afternoon storms to the interior terminals.

&&

.MARINE...

Tonight...Winds will remain S/SE south of the Cape and become
S/SW to the north, with speeds up to 10-15 knots in the evening
decreasing to 5-10 knots late tonight. Seas will range from 1-2
feet. Main concern will be the potential for a few storms pushing
offshore, producing gusty winds, mainly north of Sebastian Inlet
through this evening.

Wed-Sat...Due to the surface ridge extending towards east central
Florida during this period, gentle to moderate breezes will be from
the southeast to south. Seas will range between 2 to 3 feet.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No sites along the Saint Johns river are at or above Flood Stage.
However, Astor, Sanford and Lake Harney forecast points remain in
Action Stage. Deland remains just below Action stage and will have
to watch this area if heavy rainfall falls across this area late
this afternoon/evening. Refer to the latest Hydrologic Statements
(RVSMLB) for the latest stage and forecast information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  90  74  90 /  50  30  10  20
MCO  75  93  75  94 /  50  30  20  20
MLB  76  90  77  90 /  30  20  10  20
VRB  73  90  75  90 /  20  10  10  10
LEE  76  93  76  94 /  20  40  30  30
SFB  75  94  75  94 /  50  40  20  20
ORL  76  93  76  93 /  40  40  20  20
FPR  73  90  74  90 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Short/Long Term...Weitlich
Impact Wx/Aviation...Lascody
Radar...Smith


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