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000
FXUS62 KMLB 091326
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
926 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

...New UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Aside from some clouds and a couple downpours streaming across
Martin County this morning, we are starting the day off on a
quiet note. The 10Z Cape (XMR) sounding shows some rather dry air
aloft, resulting in a PW of around 1.4". Through early afternoon,
expect our cumulus field to grow and temps to heat up into the
upper 80s/low 90s.

Still monitoring the risk for storms later today, with the
potential for one or two of them to go severe. Aforementioned dry
air aloft may contribute to somewhat higher chance for gusty winds
(downbursts) to develop in these storms. The wind profile is
fairly unidirectional with a pronounced westerly component. Bulk
shear is pretty weak but may approach 25 KT later this afternoon.
Our convective triggers will be a weak surface front across North
FL, a bit of PVA, and the Atlantic breeze, which will stick close
to the coast due to the westerly synoptic flow.

CAMs are insistent on storm development after 3-4PM with initial
foci up around Daytona and also over the Treasure Coast. This
evening, storms may grow upscale or transit the Atlantic Breeze
down across the Space Coast.

Our threats from any severe storm today would be wind gusts around
60 mph, hail up to quarter size, torrential rain, and frequent
lightning. There is a low, but non-zero, threat for a brief tornado
or two, particularly near the coast where low-level winds will be
backed out of the SE, increasing helicity values.

Much of this activity will end after 11PM or so.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 926 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Today-tonight...Seas are quite benign this morning with buoy 41009
reporting under 2 ft waves at this time. This will remain the case
for much of the day. Westerly breezes to become SE by
afternoon/evening as sea breeze develops, ranging 8-13 KT. Near
shore, a few storms develop late afternoon/evening with gusty
winds and lightning expected in the vicinity of this activity.


Saturday-Wednesday (previous discussion)...Scattered to numerous
showers and storms this weekend become generally scattered next
week, though cells will continue to drift offshore into the
Atlantic each day during the afternoon and evening hours. A few
storms could be strong, especially along the sea breeze. South to
southwesterly flow overnight becoming east to southeast each day
as the sea breeze develops and tries to push inland, with varying
success. Winds around 5-10kts this weekend becoming 10-15kts
through midweek. Seas 1-2ft, with occasional pockets of up to 3ft
well offshore north of the Cape.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 926 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

A few showers and MVFR CIGs are affecting SUA this morning,
otherwise it is a quiet start to the day. After 18-19Z, a few
more storms develop near SUA/FPR/VRB but also up around DAB/SFB.
Storm chances increase through the evening near TIX/MCO/MLB as
well, before ending all areas by 4Z or so. Lightning, gusty winds,
& lower VIS near any storms. W/SW winds 5-12 KT will attempt to
turn southeasterly at nearshore terminals after 20-21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 926 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

The Weekend...A weak boundary meanders across north Florida or
the northern MLB CW Saturday, then lifts northward into the Deep
South into Sunday, with passing shortwave troughs aloft. Higher
moisture, with PWATs around 1.5-1.8" each afternoon, and upper
level support are expected to generate scattered to numerous
showers and lightning storms each afternoon this weekend. Lighter
south/southwesterly flow will allow for a further inland
progression of the east coast sea breeze than late in the work
week, with a collision expected over the interior. A few strong
storms will be possible, especially along the sea breeze
collision, with DCAPE values around 900-1100J/kg and 500mb
temperatures -7.5 to -8C. Main threats will be gusty winds,
lightning strikes, and locally heavy downpours, but small hail
cannot be ruled out. PoPs 50-60% along and north of the I-4
corridor Saturday (the area closest to the weak boundary) and
40-50% to the south. By Sunday, PoPs 50-60% area-wide. Highest
coverage is expected during the afternoons, with convection
drifting offshore into the Atlantic waters during the later
afternoon and evening hours. It will be warm, with highs in the
lower 90s for most area, with upper 80s along the immediate coast,
in the afternoons. Overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Next Week...As the aforementioned boundary lifts northward away from
the local area, the Atlantic ridge axis begins to build south of the
area, stretching into south Florida by midweek. Th ridge axis will
work to keep a cool front dipping through the Southeast from making
it into northern Florida, stalling across southern Georgia and
Alabama. Developing southwesterly flow on the northwest periphery of
the ridge axis will advect in some slightly drier air (PWATs 1.3-
1.6"), which will limit overall convection compared to the weekend.
PoPs each day around 30-40% through the period, though a few places
could creep up to near 50% at times. Southwesterly flow will once
again keep the east coast sea breeze pinned near the coast, so any
afternoon convection will be focused on this side of the peninsula,
before drifting offshore in the late afternoon and evening hours.
Southwest flow will also lead to a warming trend, with highs
creeping into the mid-90s by Tuesday over the interior and even
approaching the upper 90s midweek onward. The coast will remain
slightly cooler, but still reach the lower to mid-90s. At this time,
the hottest day looks to be Thursday, when apparent temperatures
remain just below Heat Advisory criteria. Overnight lows in the
lower to mid-70s.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  70  86  72 /  60  60  60  30
MCO  92  73  91  73 /  50  40  60  20
MLB  90  73  89  73 /  50  50  50  30
VRB  90  71  90  72 /  50  30  40  30
LEE  93  72  91  72 /  50  30  60  20
SFB  92  72  91  73 /  60  50  60  20
ORL  93  73  92  74 /  50  40  60  20
FPR  89  72  88  72 /  50  30  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heil
LONG TERM....Pendergrast
AVIATION...Heil