Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 190651
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
251 AM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Mid level high will strengthen across the mid south while a weak
trough slowly pushes south into the Gulf waters by this evening. Mid
level flow will veer to the east during the day. While veering, much
of the day will be spent as a northerly component which will help
keep most seabreeze convection across the FL counties and extreme
southern AL/GA. Surface flow will be somewhat northerly as well with
elongated surface ridging across the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Moisture cross sections dont look overly impressive and PWATs will
remain around 1.8 inches. Therefore, 20-30 chance for rain looks
reasonable and favor the Florida counties. Timing will be in the
afternoon hours and wane towards dusk. Highs today will be in the
mid 90s.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...

In the upper levels a ridge will be over the Southeast. At the
surface high pressure is over the Southeast with a weak pressure
gradient over the region. Low level flow will be easterly or
southeasterly. Seabreeze showers and thunderstorms are likely
tomorrow with POPs of 30 to 50 percent. POPs will be lower in most
of the Georgia counties. On Friday POPs will be 20 to 30 percent.
Lows will be in the lower 70s. Highs will be in the lower 90s
tomorrow and near 90 on Friday.


.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

In the upper levels a ridge will be over the Southeast until a
trough moves in mid next week. At the surface high pressure will be
over New England and a weak pressure gradient will be over the
Southeast. A cold front will approach the region mid next week. POPs
will be low this weekend mainly in the 10 to 30 percent range. POPs
will be higher next week as winds near the surface become more
southerly. Highs will be near 90. Lows will be in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Thursday]...

VFR will prevail through the period outside of convection. Speaking
of which, storms will be isolated today and favor the FL big bend
and extreme southern GA. Therefore, do have a mention in the TAFs at
TLH and VLD. A quick tempo down to MVFR vsby is possible if the
aerodromes are affected.

&&

.MARINE...

Light northwesterly winds will become southerly this afternoon.
Light to moderate easterly winds are expected tomorrow through the
weekend. Slightly higher seas around 2 to 3 feet are expected this
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected through the next few days.
Scattered thunderstorms are possible each afternoon as well.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Most local rivers are steady or falling. Most local rivers remain
well below action stage. Rainfall totals around one inch or less
expected over the next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   94  74  93  74  91 /  30  20  40  30  20
Panama City   91  75  91  74  89 /  20  10  30  20  30
Dothan        94  73  93  72  89 /  20  10  30  10  20
Albany        95  74  94  72  91 /  10  10  20  10  20
Valdosta      94  73  93  71  91 /  20  10  20  10  20
Cross City    93  73  93  73  91 /  30  20  30  20  20
Apalachicola  90  76  90  76  88 /  20  10  20  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...McD
LONG TERM...McD
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...McD
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...McD


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