Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 052230

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
630 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020


[Through 00z Friday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period outside of isolated to scattered showers and



.NEAR TERM [Through Thursday]...

A near record dry mid to upper level environment is expected to keep
convective coverage isolated to scattered today in what would
otherwise be a more favorable regime for widespread convection. Weak
and broad upper level troughing is in place west of the area with
1000-700 mb winds light out of the south today. WPC also analyzes a
weak surface boundary across the forecast area. The 12z KTAE
sounding came in with a 500 mb dewpoint of -53.3C and a 300 mb
dewpoint of -73.1C. The record dry KTAE sounding dewpoint values for
August are -55.1C at 500 mb and -73.9C at 300 mb. Given the dry air
aloft, DCAPE values will be fairly high this afternoon, so we`ll
have to watch for any downbursts with any convection that does
manage to sustain itself. Isolated to scattered convection is
expected to diminish after sunset with overnight lows in the low to
mid 70s.

For Thursday, a plume of deeper moisture characterized by
precipitable water values near 2 inches is expected to return
northward across portions of the southeast big bend. Thus, an early
start to convection may occur during the morning hours in that
region. Elsewhere, deep moisture is expected to increase a bit
overall, but a gradient will remain across the forecast with drier
air to the west and moisture air to the east. The rain chances will
also follow this pattern with higher chances for showers and
thunderstorms across the eastern half of the area compared to the
western half. Afternoon highs are expected to be mainly in the low
to mid 90s.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Night Through Saturday]...

The broad troughing across the SE CONUS will continue to lift
northeastward as high pressure slides in from the east over the
state, resulting in fairly zonal flow aloft. The axis of higher
PWs over the Florida Peninsula will continue to edge closer to our
area and into the Big Bend Friday, leading to slightly more
coverage of showers and thunderstorms. By Saturday, the ridging
should have a decent hold over the Peninsula, but it looks like a
tropical wave feature could round the western edge of the ridge up
into our area, dragging a swath of 2 inch PWs overhead. While the
ridging does appear to be fairly strong, leading to high
temperatures climbing into the mid to even upper 90s, the increase
in moisture could still lead to shower and thunderstorm

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Wednesday]...

For the long term, deeper moisture appears to largely remain in
place across the area. Ridging over the state begins to weaken
and retreat eastward a bit as a shortwave passes to the north,
leading to a very slight decrease in high temperatures and a
return to more widespread afternoon showers and thunderstorms.


Mostly southwest winds at 10 knots or less and 1-ft seas prevail
through the period. Favorable boating conditions are expected over
the next several days, outside of thunderstorms which may produce
locally higher winds and seas.


Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


Although rain chances are high through the period, 7-day QPF amounts
generally yield only 1 inch or less. Locally higher amounts are
always from slow-moving storms develop. There are no flooding
concerns. Local rivers and creeks also remain in good shape.


Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   73  94  73  94  73 /  20  40  20  50  10
Panama City   77  91  77  90  77 /  10  10  10  30  10
Dothan        72  94  72  95  73 /  10  20  10  30  10
Albany        73  95  74  96  75 /  20  20  10  40  20
Valdosta      73  92  73  92  73 /  30  60  20  60  20
Cross City    74  92  74  91  74 /  50  70  30  60  20
Apalachicola  77  90  76  89  77 /  10  30  20  40  20




SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
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