Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 131952
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
352 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Fairly zonal upper pattern across the southeast into tonight with an
upper high over the Gulf and a shortwave trough passing to the
north. Cold front analyzed this afternoon from the western FL
panhandle into southeast AL. This front will slowly sag south and
east tonight and be located into southwest GA overnight.
Isentropic lift along and north of the boundary will lead to
isolated showers and storms this evening with showers overnight.
Mid/high clouds will also spread east into much of the area. Lows
will be in the 60s.


.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

To start the work week, a surge of moisture arrives from the west in
association with a zonally oriented frontal boundary. This is
expected to increase shower and thunderstorm chances. Precipitation
will be widespread, where some of the storms may be strong, and
locally heavy rainfall is possible. This impending wet pattern will
also be a welcome sight for our area as we have continued to
experience a prolonged drought. PoPs range as high as 55-65% in the
western CWA (Tues-Wed) and highest chances shift eastward as the
front advances late Wed. Additionally, the light winds and available
moisture will be conducive for possible patchy fog formation in
the early- morning hours following frontal passage. Nevertheless,
the increased cloud cover and precip should keep high temperatures
in the 80s and lows in the 70s. Winds will initially be out of
the east before front arrival, then veer from southeast to
southwest as the front approaches.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

After the front passes mid week, a slightly cooler and drier
airmass will temporarily move into our area. Therefore, mostly
fair-weather conditions are expected Thurs-Fri as high pressure
builds in. To conclude the work week, high temperatures will be in
the 70s/80s lows in the 50s!

By the weekend, things start to get interesting as yet
another cold front approaches from the west and some tropical
moisture may advect onshore from the southern Gulf. Therefore PoPs
are generally 30-40% for the southwest coastal/offshore zones and
western CWA (10-20% elsewhere) for the remainder of the forecast
period. High temperatures will be in the 80s and lows in the
60s/70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Monday]

Weak cold front will slowly sag southeast into the western half of
the CWA. Not a lot of moisture to work with so will keep it VFR
this period. Low chances for -SHRA at DHN and ABY and have left
out of TAFs at this time due to low confidence. Winds will be
relatively light; from the south ahead of the front and northwest
behind the front.

&&

.MARINE...

Initially southeast winds around 10 knots (1-2 ft seas) increase
ahead of the primary cold front through Wed. As the front passes,
winds shift to the north, then return to the east-to-southeast
around 10-15 knots (2-4 ft seas) for the rest of the forecast
period. Some increase in the winds and seas are expected in the
vicinity of thunderstorms that develop along the frontal boundaries.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will be low the next few days as humidity
levels slowly creep upwards. A weak front moving into the region
mid week will lead to an increase in southerly winds and
increased dispersion values...possibly increasing fire concerns
slightly.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A wetter pattern overall should provide some much-needed relief to
our area. Although precip will be widespread at times and locally
heavy rainfall is possible, there are no flooding concerns. As
mentioned in the previous discussion, the accumulated rainfall this
period will be beneficial.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   67  88  71  86  75 /  10  20   0  40  40
Panama City   71  85  74  84  72 /  20  10  10  60  60
Dothan        65  82  69  82  69 /  40  20  20  70  60
Albany        68  83  70  80  72 /  40  10  20  60  60
Valdosta      67  87  72  85  72 /  10  20  10  40  40
Cross City    66  88  69  87  74 /   0   0   0  10  30
Apalachicola  71  84  73  83  77 /   0  10  10  40  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...IG
LONG TERM...IG
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...IG
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...IG


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