Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 082006
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
306 PM EST Mon Mar 8 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Tuesday]...
A very dry air mass is in place, with Precipitable Water values not
far off record dry levels for this day of the year. The dry air mass
and light winds will set up ideal conditions for radiational cooling
tonight, with fairly large temperature differences between low-lying
cold pockets and the warmer bubbles. Have included patchy frost in
the forecast late tonight east of the Flint River and north of I-
10, where lows below 38F and sufficiently high relative humidity
will intersect. Otherwise, skies will feature nothing more than
the arrival of some high cirrus early Tuesday.

Low-level flow will veer around from northeast today to
east/southeast by Tuesday. This will contribute to a gradual warming
trend, and initial return of shallow Atlantic moisture is expected.
Dewpoints will climb through the 30s and into the 40s on Tuesday,
particularly east of I-75 and along the Panhandle coast. However,
little more than flat fair-weather cumulus will emerge.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Night]...
Deep layer ridge along the eastern seaboard will dominate the
pattern through the middle of the week. Sprawling surface high,
centered off the Mid-Atlantic, will keep steady east to east-
southeast flow in place. Expect temperatures to gradually warm,
with highs in the 70s on Wednesday, and lows in the mid 40s to
lower 50s. No rain is expected.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...
The pattern will remain mostly unchanged into the weekend, with
high pressure in control over most of the southeast. Expect mild
and dry conditions to persist through at least Saturday. A strong
system ejecting out of the desert southwest will push a front
towards the northeastern Gulf Coast late in the weekend. This may
provide the region with it`s next chance of rain by late Sunday
or Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Tuesday]
A very dry airmass will support clear skies through 18z Tuesday,
with little more than high cirrus on Tuesday morning. ECP will
experience an upcoming seabreeze wind shift early this afternoon.
Otherwise, light easterly flow will prevail at the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Overall easterly flow is expected to persist over the coastal
waters through most of the week. This will result in a diurnal
wind pattern, with exercise caution conditions expected during the
overnight and early morning hours, and lighter winds conditions
during the day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A very dry air mass is in place this afternoon. A clocking of light
winds out of the east and southeast on Tuesday will bring enough
moisture back across the FL zones to hold Min RH on Tuesday above 30
percent, but counties north of Dothan, Blakely, and Tifton are
likely to again see Min RH down into the 20s on Tuesday. Otherwise,
light to moderate breezes will turn more easterly and southeasterly.
Smoke rise will continue to be strongly capped around 3500-4000 feet
agl by a pronounced subsidence inversion.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
While several area rivers remain in minor flood, no additional
rainfall is expected through the remainder of the work week.
Therefore, most river levels should generally be on the decline
through the week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   35  72  47  74  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   43  70  52  72  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        38  70  44  74  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        36  70  44  74  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      35  71  44  75  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    40  74  47  76  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  46  66  53  69  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Camp



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