Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 180058
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
858 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.UPDATE...

Once again convection associated with the east coast sea breeze
made it into our CWA this evening. PoPs were increased to 30% for
most zones until around midnight. No other changes were made.
Patchy fog may develop in the predawn hours, especially in
locations that received rain.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [729 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Scattered convection is expected for the remainder of the afternoon
into the evening hours. The 12z KTAE sounding shows an increase in
moisture compared to yesterday with the precipitable water value up
to 1.72 inches. Modifying the sounding for an afternoon T/Td of
88/72 yields SBCAPE values around 3000 j/kg. An isolated, brief
stronger storm or two is possible before storms diminish tonight,
typical of summer. Overnight lows will generally range from the low
to mid 70s across the area.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

A train of shortwaves will maintain our current unsettled summer
pattern through the short term. Rain chances will be highest during
the daylight hours, with most of our land area at or above 50% PoP.
High temperatures will remain around normal, in the upper 80s and
low 90s, with lows in the mid 70s.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

A significant shortwave and associated system will move into the
Ohio and Tennessee valley Thursday. While most of the forcing with
this system will remain to the north, there will be some enhancement
of convection in our area. PoPs will be highest during the day in
our Georgia and Alabama counties. There is the potential for a
severe threat on Thursday, but nothing solid yet. This system will
be worth keeping an eye on as we get closer to Thursday.

Going into the weekend, the shortwave trough will move off to the
east with a ridge building in from the west, placing us in a drier
pattern through Monday. With ridging in place, highs will warm to
the mid 90s, while lows stay around the mid 70s.


.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Wednesday]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the East Coast sea
breeze will continue to push westward across our eastern and
central counties. Terminals in those areas will see intermittent
reductions in visibility and ceiling heights with the passage of
these storms. Convective activity will be quick to subside in the
next few hours, especially after sunset. By 06-07Z tonight, MVFR
and IFR ceilings across SE AL and SW GA terminals are possible
with visibilities in the 3 to 4 mile range in our extreme NW
terminals.


.MARINE...

Low winds and seas tonight will increase through the week with up to
advisory conditions beginning Wednesday night through Thursday
night. Southwest winds up to 15 knots will prevail after Thursday.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms expected each day through
Friday.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated relative humidity and precipitation chances will
continue through Thursday. No fire weather concerns at
this time.


.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall totals over the next several days are expected to be at or
below one inch for most of the area, with isolated higher totals
possible. As such, widespread flooding is not expected. Localized
flooding may still occur with higher rain rates during
thunderstorms or with slower moving storms.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   72  90  74  90  75 /  30  60  30  60  30
Panama City   76  85  77  86  78 /  30  40  40  50  20
Dothan        73  89  73  90  75 /  30  70  40  50  10
Albany        73  90  73  90  74 /  30  60  30  60  30
Valdosta      72  90  73  89  75 /  30  70  20  60  20
Cross City    72  87  75  86  75 /  30  50  40  60  30
Apalachicola  76  86  77  86  78 /  30  40  40  60  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barry
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Skeen
LONG TERM...Skeen
AVIATION...DiCatarina
MARINE...Skeen
FIRE WEATHER...DiCatarina
HYDROLOGY...Skeen


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