165
FXUS62 KTAE 231833
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
233 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Quiet, but hot, conditions continue this afternoon as dry
northwesterly flow aloft suppresses shower/storm development but also
allows plenty of sunshine. For tonight surface high pressure begins
to move into the Appalachians and that will bring light north and
northeasterly flow across our inland counties overnight. Main
sensible weather tonight will be patchy fog, mostly across our
Florida counties.

For tomorrow the hot temperatures continue with many locations
climbing into the mid 90s, and upper 90s are possible across our
eastern zones in southern Georgia and the I-75 corridor. Mostly dry
conditions are expected again tomorrow but a shortwave trough to our
west will approach along with increasing low-level moisture as
southwesterly flow across our Panhandle and southeast Alabama
counties remains. Storms will likely be ongoing with this trough as
it passes through the deep south and it`s possible these storms will
coalesce into a more organized batch of storms called an MCS
(mesoscale convective system). This system will move east-southeast
through the day and there remains considerable uncertainty if it
will make it as far southeast as our Alabama counties tomorrow
evening, but given modestly favorable instability thanks to hot
temperatures, drier air aloft, and elevated shear, if it can persist
isolated damaging wind gusts are possible. Given some of the more
favorable hi-res guidance this afternoon, SPC has nudged the
marginal (level 1 of 5) risk area further south and east this
afternoon. Additionally, while the slight risk (level 2 of 5)
remains well to our northwest, it too has nudged southeast in the
afternoon update. Regardless, make it a good habit to check the
radar at times on Saturday to see how things are progressing to our
west.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

The start of the short-term period, Saturday night, remains a bit
uncertain at this time. A robust H5 shortwave is forecast to dive
through the Mid-South and into the Southeast Saturday afternoon into
the evening. The biggest question remains: Will there be a batch of
showers/storms associated with it or not as it nears our region? The
convection allowing models (CAMs) remain somewhat split on the idea
of there even being showers/storms and, if there is, whether they
make it here locally. One thing that makes that kept us from
increasing rain chances too much for our friends in Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle is the presence of mid-level dry air that will
remain in place; this should weaken any showers/storms that head our
way Saturday night. Still, it`s something we`ll continue to monitor
as we head into the holiday weekend.

A shortwave ridge is forecast to build over the region Sunday into
Sunday afternoon. This should limit shower and thunderstorm
potential over most of our region. However, low-level moisture will
increase such that an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out
Sunday afternoon into the evening. Some gusty winds are possible
under the more robust updrafts, should any develop, Sunday afternoon
before activity winds down Sunday evening.

Temperatures will remain quite warm through the period. Lows will
generally be in and around 70 Saturday night with middle 90s
expected Sunday afternoon. Granted, this is assuming there`s not a
lot of cloud debris from Saturday evening`s showers/storms, if there
are any. Another warm and humid night is on tap Sunday night with
lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Memorial Day typically marks the unofficial start to summer and,
well, it`s going to be feeling like it Monday and beyond. Daytime
highs are forecast to climb into the upper 80s to middle 90s each
afternoon with overnight lows upper 60s to lower 70s. Daily
afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances also return with the best
opportunities for rain currently forecast Wednesday and Thursday.

The subtle H5 ridging from Sunday moseys east Monday; this keeps us
on the warmer side of normal to start the period. The ridge axis
moves east of us Tuesday and will allow southwesterly flow aloft to
take over. Several embedded shortwaves within the SW flow will aid
in the development of showers and storms first along the seabreeze
and then along any resulting outflow boundaries each afternoon and
evening. A larger scale H5 trough starts to take shape near the end
of the period. Couple this with ample moisture should lead to higher
rain chances across the region Wednesday and Thursday while also
nudging daytime highs closer to 90.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Light winds this
morning become west and southwesterly around 10 knots this
afternoon and then become light/variable overnight. Some brief
restrictions due to patchy fog are possible around sunrise on
Saturday, mostly affecting TLH if it develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

An area of high pressure over the northeastern Gulf will allow light
to gentle southerly breezes through the weekend. Areas near the
coast may see an enhancement of the winds each afternoon due to the
seabreeze. The high moves east of Florida early next week,
supporting gentle to moderate southerly breezes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

While elevated fire concerns are not expected due to light winds,
hot temperatures away from the coast and dry conditions will
slightly raise concerns through the weekend. Conditions on Saturday
will be mostly dry, outside of a few isolated showers and storms
across southeast Alabama and the Panhandle. As moisture slowly
returns to the region through the rest of the Memorial Day weekend,
and rain chances increase, any fire concerns will decrease. Main
things to watch out for would be gusty and erratic winds in the
vicinity of any thunderstorms that develop. Patchy fog in the
overnight hours is possible as well, especially on Saturday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Flooding concerns remain low over the next several days.

That said, daily afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances ramp up
next week. Any one of these showers or storms could cause short-
lived runoff issues under the core of the heaviest rain.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   69  97  71  95 /   0  10   0  10
Panama City   73  89  75  88 /   0  10   0  10
Dothan        68  93  70  93 /   0  10  20  20
Albany        68  95  71  95 /   0  10  10  20
Valdosta      68  98  71  97 /   0   0   0  20
Cross City    65  95  67  93 /   0   0   0  20
Apalachicola  71  86  74  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Reese