Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 260555

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
155 AM EDT Thu May 26 2022

[Through 06Z Friday]

Main concerns for this TAF period are thunderstorms, some of which
may be strong to severe, capable of producing frequent lightning,
gusty/erratic winds, and heavy rainfall. As such, MVFR-IFR
restrictions are likely near any storms with southerly winds around
10-12 kts (gusts up to 25 kts). Best chances for thunder begin by
late morning at ECP/DHN then spreading east to the remaining
terminals around midday and into the afternoon hrs. Lingering
showers with VCTS are possible after 0Z, except perhaps VLD.



.NEAR TERM [Through Thursday]...
A broken band of showers and thunderstorms from about Cuthbert to
offshore of Mexico Beach has very slowly been making eastward
progress, though individual storm motion has been generally
northward. While these storms may diminish, it`s possible that
scattered showers and storms could redevelop over the western FL
Panhandle and southeast Alabama later this evening. However, this
round would likely not be as strong given how worked over the
atmosphere is in that part of our CWA. Some locally heavy rainfall
could still be possible, however. Farther east. Any isolated showers
or storms that manage to develop late this afternoon will diminish
after sunset.

Our attention then turns back off to the west late tonight into
Thursday morning as a cold front begins to approach the area.
Guidance shows a line of showers and thunderstorms organizing off to
our west and moving into western parts of our CWA near sunrise
Thursday morning. By early afternoon, the line of storms should be
near the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers. However, as the afternoon
continues, the better dynamics will begin lifting northward away
from the area and storms may begin weakening during the afternoon.
Some of the storms on Thursday have the potential to be strong to
severe with damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two. The
Storm Prediction Center has outlined most areas outside of the
southeast Big Bend in a Marginal Risk for severe weather (level 1 of
5). Farther to the east over south central Georgia and the Big Bend,
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may still develop
during the afternoon, but rain chances here are lower compared to
farther west.

Locally heavy rainfall is also possible, mainly over the western
parts of our area. Given antecedent saturated soils from recent
heavy rainfall, flash flooding is possible, and a Flood Watch has
been issued for the Florida Panhandle west of the Apalachicola

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Night Through Friday Night]...
Showers and storms will gradually weaken and diminish Thursday
evening with the loss of daytime heating and forcing from the
weakening upper trough. There will still be enough instability
for scattered storms on Friday, especially over the eastern half
of the area. Coverage will likely be less than preceding days as
forcing from the weakening upper trough diminishes. However, there
may still be a few strong to marginally severe storms given the
marginal deep layer shear and available instability.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
Once the upper trough exits the region on Friday, a deep layer
ridge will build over the Mid-Atlantic States into early next week
with deep layer easterly flow eventually developing along the
northeastern Gulf Coast. This will yield a much drier period for
the region through the holiday weekend with high temperatures
warming from the upper 80s over the weekend to the lower 90s by
early next week. Rain chances will return from the east by Monday
and Tuesday afternoons.

Winds and seas will remain elevated through Thursday, especially
west of Apalachicola. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
through Thursday for portions of the waters. Conditions will
improve significantly for the weekend into early next week with
much much lighter winds and low seas.

More showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area,
beginning Thursday morning over southeast Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle, moving eastward through the day. Ahead of the storms,
high dispersions are expected across the eastern Big Bend and I-75
corridor Thursday afternoon. The storms will move into south GA and
the FL Big Bend Thursday afternoon, then very slowly move eastward
Thursday night into Friday morning. By Friday afternoon, most areas
should be dry with high dispersions area-wide. Saturday will be rain-
free as well with high dispersions yet again across the whole area.

Slow moving band of thunderstorms moving across the panhandle
today drop a widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain, with a few areas of
3 to 4 inches as well. Additional heavy rain will be possible with
additional storms later this evening, and then again Thursday
morning. Another 2 to 4 inches will be possible, with locally
higher amounts. With the Panhandle receiving the most recent heavy
rains, and with the best chance of receiving the most rain through
Thursday, have hoisted a Flash Flood Watch for Florida counties
west of the river.


Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   84  69  88  65  89 /  60  60  30   0  10
Panama City   82  70  84  68  84 /  90  70  10   0   0
Dothan        81  65  85  61  85 /  90  60  10   0   0
Albany        85  68  87  63  87 /  80  50  10   0   0
Valdosta      87  69  86  64  88 /  40  50  50  10  10
Cross City    89  71  85  67  88 /  30  20  80  10  10
Apalachicola  82  72  84  70  84 /  70  60  30  10   0


FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     Flood Watch through this evening for Calhoun-Central Walton-
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Gulf-
     Jackson-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coastal
     waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County
     Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach
     FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa
     Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.



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