


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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165 FXUS62 KTAE 231833 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 233 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025 Quiet, but hot, conditions continue this afternoon as dry northwesterly flow aloft suppresses shower/storm development but also allows plenty of sunshine. For tonight surface high pressure begins to move into the Appalachians and that will bring light north and northeasterly flow across our inland counties overnight. Main sensible weather tonight will be patchy fog, mostly across our Florida counties. For tomorrow the hot temperatures continue with many locations climbing into the mid 90s, and upper 90s are possible across our eastern zones in southern Georgia and the I-75 corridor. Mostly dry conditions are expected again tomorrow but a shortwave trough to our west will approach along with increasing low-level moisture as southwesterly flow across our Panhandle and southeast Alabama counties remains. Storms will likely be ongoing with this trough as it passes through the deep south and it`s possible these storms will coalesce into a more organized batch of storms called an MCS (mesoscale convective system). This system will move east-southeast through the day and there remains considerable uncertainty if it will make it as far southeast as our Alabama counties tomorrow evening, but given modestly favorable instability thanks to hot temperatures, drier air aloft, and elevated shear, if it can persist isolated damaging wind gusts are possible. Given some of the more favorable hi-res guidance this afternoon, SPC has nudged the marginal (level 1 of 5) risk area further south and east this afternoon. Additionally, while the slight risk (level 2 of 5) remains well to our northwest, it too has nudged southeast in the afternoon update. Regardless, make it a good habit to check the radar at times on Saturday to see how things are progressing to our west. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday night through Sunday night) Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025 The start of the short-term period, Saturday night, remains a bit uncertain at this time. A robust H5 shortwave is forecast to dive through the Mid-South and into the Southeast Saturday afternoon into the evening. The biggest question remains: Will there be a batch of showers/storms associated with it or not as it nears our region? The convection allowing models (CAMs) remain somewhat split on the idea of there even being showers/storms and, if there is, whether they make it here locally. One thing that makes that kept us from increasing rain chances too much for our friends in Alabama and the Florida Panhandle is the presence of mid-level dry air that will remain in place; this should weaken any showers/storms that head our way Saturday night. Still, it`s something we`ll continue to monitor as we head into the holiday weekend. A shortwave ridge is forecast to build over the region Sunday into Sunday afternoon. This should limit shower and thunderstorm potential over most of our region. However, low-level moisture will increase such that an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon into the evening. Some gusty winds are possible under the more robust updrafts, should any develop, Sunday afternoon before activity winds down Sunday evening. Temperatures will remain quite warm through the period. Lows will generally be in and around 70 Saturday night with middle 90s expected Sunday afternoon. Granted, this is assuming there`s not a lot of cloud debris from Saturday evening`s showers/storms, if there are any. Another warm and humid night is on tap Sunday night with lows in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025 Memorial Day typically marks the unofficial start to summer and, well, it`s going to be feeling like it Monday and beyond. Daytime highs are forecast to climb into the upper 80s to middle 90s each afternoon with overnight lows upper 60s to lower 70s. Daily afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances also return with the best opportunities for rain currently forecast Wednesday and Thursday. The subtle H5 ridging from Sunday moseys east Monday; this keeps us on the warmer side of normal to start the period. The ridge axis moves east of us Tuesday and will allow southwesterly flow aloft to take over. Several embedded shortwaves within the SW flow will aid in the development of showers and storms first along the seabreeze and then along any resulting outflow boundaries each afternoon and evening. A larger scale H5 trough starts to take shape near the end of the period. Couple this with ample moisture should lead to higher rain chances across the region Wednesday and Thursday while also nudging daytime highs closer to 90. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025 VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Light winds this morning become west and southwesterly around 10 knots this afternoon and then become light/variable overnight. Some brief restrictions due to patchy fog are possible around sunrise on Saturday, mostly affecting TLH if it develops. && .MARINE... Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025 An area of high pressure over the northeastern Gulf will allow light to gentle southerly breezes through the weekend. Areas near the coast may see an enhancement of the winds each afternoon due to the seabreeze. The high moves east of Florida early next week, supporting gentle to moderate southerly breezes. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025 While elevated fire concerns are not expected due to light winds, hot temperatures away from the coast and dry conditions will slightly raise concerns through the weekend. Conditions on Saturday will be mostly dry, outside of a few isolated showers and storms across southeast Alabama and the Panhandle. As moisture slowly returns to the region through the rest of the Memorial Day weekend, and rain chances increase, any fire concerns will decrease. Main things to watch out for would be gusty and erratic winds in the vicinity of any thunderstorms that develop. Patchy fog in the overnight hours is possible as well, especially on Saturday night. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025 Flooding concerns remain low over the next several days. That said, daily afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances ramp up next week. Any one of these showers or storms could cause short- lived runoff issues under the core of the heaviest rain. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 69 97 71 95 / 0 10 0 10 Panama City 73 89 75 88 / 0 10 0 10 Dothan 68 93 70 93 / 0 10 20 20 Albany 68 95 71 95 / 0 10 10 20 Valdosta 68 98 71 97 / 0 0 0 20 Cross City 65 95 67 93 / 0 0 0 20 Apalachicola 71 86 74 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Dobbs SHORT TERM...Reese LONG TERM....Reese AVIATION...Dobbs MARINE...Reese FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Reese