Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS62 KTAE 211923
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
323 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Southeasterly flow has yielded convection along a westward moving
Gulf seabreeze across north Florida. Across AL and GA convection is
initiating along a convergent axis at the western periphery of
surface ridging. Later this evening, the Atlantic seabreeze may
reach the southeast Big Bend bringing a chance for showers and
storms. Expect storms to come to an end across the region after
sunset.


.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

A mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic will continue to nose
its way across the Tri-State region into Thursday. Relatively dry
air and widespread weak subsidence should keep thunderstorm and
shower activity across the FL Big Bend and SW GA below average
through Friday. WPC is forecasting 1-3 day widespread rainfall
accumulations below 0.5 inches. This should come as a relief to
some of these areas that have seen +8 inches of rain last week and
allow river flooding along the Econfina and Steinhatchee to
slowly subside. With respect to temps, highs will be in the mid
90s while lows will be in the mid 70s.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

The aforementioned ridge will begin to degrade across the region
as a short wave trough moves east across Missouri and into the
Ohio River Basin over the weekend. Increasing low- to mid-level
moisture and enhanced low level convergence will allow for
increased shower and thunderstorm activity along the sea breeze
starting Saturday. Temps will be around climatological average for
this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Thursday]

VFR conditions will prevail outside of thunderstorms through the
afternoon and evening hours. There`s the potential for MVFR ceilings
and visibility at ECP in the morning, with a borderline MVFR cloud
deck possible from ABY to TLH eastward tomorrow morning.


&&

.MARINE...

Mostly calm conditions through the forecast period with south to
southeasterly wind around 10 knots. Wave heights will be 3 feet
or less with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over
the next few days. Transport winds will generally be south-
southeast around 10 to 12 MPH with surface winds light and
variable. With quick heating each day, mixing heights should top
out around 4500 to 5000ft.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A more typical summertime pattern of scattered seabreeze
thunderstorms is expected to continue for the next week, with no
threat for widespread flooding expected. Meanwhile, both the
Econfina and Steinhatchee rivers remain in flood stage as product
of the recent heavy rainfall. As mentioned in the short term
forecast, a slightly drier pattern is expected for the next two
to three days across those areas, thus allowing water levels
across flooding rivers to gradually drop.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  92  73  93  75 /  10  40  10  20  10
Panama City   76  88  77  88  76 /  20  40  10  30  10
Dothan        72  92  73  91  73 /  10  40  10  40  10
Albany        73  92  74  93  75 /  20  40  10  20  20
Valdosta      73  92  74  93  74 /  30  40  20  20  10
Cross City    73  92  74  93  74 /  30  30  10  10  10
Apalachicola  77  87  76  88  76 /  10  30  10  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...DiCatarina
LONG TERM...DiCatarina
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...DiCatarina
FIRE WEATHER...LN
HYDROLOGY...DiCatarina


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.