Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 251029
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
629 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Thursday]...

VFR conditions will continue throughout this period with only a
few/scattered mid-high level clouds expected at all terminals.
Light winds from the west-northwest early this morning will
approach 10 knots from the late morning through early evening,
then become light again tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [347 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

An upper level shortwave embedded in a large scale upper trough will
continue to move east of our area into the western Atlantic Ocean
today. Under this feature, a broad surface low will continue to
drift farther northeast of our area into the Mid-Atlantic region. In
its wake, dry conditions will prevail under mostly sunny skies
throughout the day along with west-northwesterly winds around 10 mph
or less. High temperatures will be slightly below average for this
time of year, ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s across our
area.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...

A shortwave moving over the Central Rockies this morning will have
moved quickly into the Mississippi Valley by tonight, and through
the Southeast on Thursday. Models are quick to pull the shortwave
northward up the Eastern Seaboard, and with the removal of
synoptic forcing it`s unlikely that we`ll get a great deal of
rain with this system, and confidence in showers even making it
to the eastern half of the Tri-State region is low. However,
there`s expected to be a brief period late Thursday afternoon
where showers and thunderstorms could bring around a half inch of
rain and possibly a few strong storms along and northwest of a
line from Dothan through Albany. Marginally steep lapse rates and
about 50 knots or so of deep layer shear would support a damaging
wind potential during this time period. By Thursday evening, the
bulk of the shower activity will have come to an end as the cold
front continues to work through the Big Bend and south Georgia. At
the same time, another shortwave will be diving into the
southeast, though with dry air aloft in the wake of the previous
wave, showers are not expected. That being said, it`s still
expected to be cloudy on Friday as low-level moisture is advected
into the region with the secondary wave. Each afternoon will
feature a temperature gradient across the region, with low 80s in
the southeast Big Bend and low 70s across southeast Alabama. This
will be due to the rain on Thursday and the passing upper wave on
Friday. Overnight lows will still generally be in the upper 50s.


.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

The eastern CONUS trough will lift out of the Southeast over the
weekend, with deep layer ridging building in early next week.
Expect a warming trend and no rain through the extended range
forecast period.


.MARINE...

Winds and seas are forecast to remain just below Cautionary levels
through the weekend, with a slight chance for showers on Thursday
night.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Although high dispersion values could develop this afternoon and
tomorrow afternoon across northern Florida, RH values and wind
speeds are not expected to reach critical thresholds across our
area. As a result, no fire weather concerns are anticipated.


.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall amounts with Thursday`s system will generally be less
than a half of an inch and remain confined to a small area
northwest of a line from Dothan through Albany. Thereafter, no
rain is expected through early next week. Thus, flooding is not a
concern at this time.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   80  57  80  59  78 /   0   0  20  10  10
Panama City   75  62  75  60  72 /   0   0  30  10  10
Dothan        78  57  73  54  72 /   0   0  50  10  10
Albany        78  57  77  56  75 /   0   0  60  20  10
Valdosta      79  58  81  60  79 /   0   0  20  20  10
Cross City    80  57  81  64  78 /   0   0   0  20  10
Apalachicola  76  63  76  62  74 /   0   0  10  20   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Lahr
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Lahr
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Lahr
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan



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