Area Forecast Discussion
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116
FXUS62 KTAE 251400
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1000 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019


.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Morning fog is rapidly burning off, with skies becoming mostly
clear. This will allow for plenty of warming this afternoon ahead
of an approaching front and shortwave. With moderately steep mid-
level lapse rates in place, this will yield 500-1000 j/kg of
SBCAPE. With deep layer shear in excess of 50 knots, the stage
will be set for a few severe thunderstorms by late this afternoon
into the evening. The main threat will be from large hail, as the
low-level wind field does not appear very supportive of tornadoes.
However, isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible as well.
Primary threat area is expected to be across SE Alabama into SW
Georgia. With the 13Z update, SPC has pushed the Slight Risk area
into our far northern Georgia counties. Only update to ongoing
forecast was to add mention of severe storms with hail in and
around the slight risk area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [619 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]...

The active pattern will continue through the short term period. A
cold front will clear the tri-state region by Tuesday morning,
giving way to cooler and drier conditions. To the west, a shortwave
trough will eject out of the northern Rockies and will move
southeastward as an upper level ridge amplifies over the Front
Range. This feature will split the main jet, traversing the tri-
state region during the late Tuesday afternoon through early
Wednesday morning timeframe. Though conditions will generally be
drier and cooler behind Monday`s front, sufficient moisture will be
in place along with favorable bulk shear to support showers with
this wave. Thunderstorm activity is not expected, as instability
will be lacking. Model guidance is consistent in pushing this wave
eastward off of the Florida coast by Wednesday morning. Clear skies
and pleasant conditions are expected in the wake of this system.
Temperatures will generally run a few degrees below normal through
the period, with highs dropping from the upper 60s/low 70s on
Tuesday to the mid to upper 60s on Wednesday. Lows will run in the
40s.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

Quiet weather will persist through the remainder of the work week.
Northwesterly upper level flow in the wake of the last system will
become quasi-zonal on Friday as the next round of upper level
shortwave troughs approaches the region from the west. At this time,
there is poor run to run consistency between model runs to
confidently nail down when the next system will move across the area
and how wet it will be. Nonetheless, it looks like the next cold
front will be upon us to close March out. Seasonal temperatures are
expected through the period.


.AVIATION...

[Through 12z Tuesday] Areas of dense fog are expected to affect
TLH, ECP, and VLD through around 14z this morning before
dissipating and becoming VFR. Scattered thunderstorms are expected
to be near DHN and ABY late this afternoon into the evening hours
ahead of a cold front. There is some potential for additional fog
and/or low ceilings late tonight around TLH and VLD.


.MARINE...

Winds and seas will increase with the passage of several systems
through Wednesday. Cautionary conditions are expected on Tuesday,
with winds and seas possibly reaching advisory levels by Tuesday
night. Expect winds and seas to decrease Thursday through the end of
the week.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected through Tuesday. A much drier
airmass is expected to move in on Wednesday with relative humidity
near critical levels across the area.


.HYDROLOGY...

All rivers remain below flood stage at this time. No significant
rainfall is expected through the next week, thus rivers are expected
to remain below flood stage.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   79  57  74  48  68 /   0  20  10  50   0
Panama City   72  58  69  51  67 /  10  20  10  20   0
Dothan        77  54  67  45  65 /  40  50  30  40   0
Albany        77  56  67  44  64 /  30  60  30  40   0
Valdosta      79  56  73  45  65 /  10  20  30  60   0
Cross City    77  58  77  50  69 /   0   0  10  60  10
Apalachicola  72  59  71  51  67 /   0   0   0  20   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal
     Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-
     Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-
     Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-
     Liberty-Madison-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for Brooks-
     Decatur-Grady-Lowndes-Seminole-Thomas.

AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Pullin
LONG TERM...Pullin
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Pullin
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Pullin



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