Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS62 KTAE 271604

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1104 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

...New UPDATE...

Issued at 1101 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

The forecast is currently on track, updates aren`t necessary this


(Today and tonight)
Issued at 322 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

Surface high pressure is expected to continue to eject eastward over
Bermuda today, which will continue to lead to southerly winds across
the region. The approach of a deep upper level trough and associated
cold front is expected to tighten the pressure gradient across the
region today, which will lead to a slightly windier day than on
Monday. Wind gusts will be up to 30 mph at times through the
afternoon and early evening hours. An upper level ridge centered
over the Yucatan Peninsula will lead to warmer than average high
temperatures across the area. Highs will generally climb into the
mid to upper 70s areawide. Lows tonight will also be above average
with temperatures only dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s.
Patchy fog and low clouds are expected to be draped across portions
of the area this morning, especially across SE Alabama, and the
Florida Peninsula. These clouds and fog are expected to dissipate
for areas east of the Flint and Apalachicola river basins during the
early to mid morning. Points west of the aforementioned river basins
are expected to have cloud cover through much of the day.


(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 322 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

Fairly warm temperatures are expected Wednesday ahead of the next
cold front with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. A cold front is
forecast to push through the area late Wednesday and Wednesday
night, with some showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two along
with it. By the time the front reaches our area, most of the upper
level support has pushed off to the northeast. Therefore, no
severe weather is expected at this point. The front is forecast to
stall south of the area somewhere over the Gulf of Mexico. Fairly
cool temperatures are expected Thursday with cold air advection
and cloud cover remaining overhead in the wake of the front. Highs
on Thursday are forecast in the mid 60s to near 70.


(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

Southeasterly winds are expected to return to the area by Friday
with a warming and moistening trend underway. Rain chances will
also increase Friday into the weekend as deep layer moisture
returns and a shortwave passes by in the southwesterly flow aloft.
While a couple inches of rain will be possible Friday over the
weekend with a few rounds of rain, severe weather does not appear
as likely at this time. Southeasterly to southerly winds increase
again early next week as the next cold front begins to push
eastward from the Plains and towards our area.


(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery shows scattered to broken
MVFR CIGs across the forecast area this morning. These  MVFR CIGs
are expected to linger at DHN and ABY through the mid morning to
early afternoon before dissipating. TLH, ECP, and VLD should break
out to VFR conditions by the early to mid morning hours. By the
early afternoon all terminals look to have VFR conditions. Another
round of MVFR to IFR CIGs look to develop Wednesday morning at
DHN, ABY, ECP, and TLH. Winds will remain southerly today, with
gusts up to 25-30 knots at times through the afternoon and early
evening hours.


Issued at 322 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

Winds and seas will gradually increase ahead of a cold frontal
passage on Wednesday night. Cautionary conditions are likely ahead
of and behind the front. A brief period of advisory conditions is
also possible west of Apalachicola in the wake of the cold front
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Another system is expected
to arrive by Friday into the weekend with a better chance of
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.


Issued at 322 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

Transport winds will be even more elevated than they were on Monday
as they peak to around 20-25 mph for areas south and east of the
Flint and Apalachicola river basins. For areas northeast of the two
river basins, transport winds are expected to peak around 25-30 mph
through the afternoon hours. These moderately strong transport winds
combined with mixing heights topping out around 3500-4500 feet will
lead to high dispersions across the entire area. While dispersions
will be high, minimum RH values will be the highest they have been
in the last several days, with values dropping to around the low to
mid 40s across the area. Overall, outside of today`s high
dispersions, there are no fire weather concerns.


Issued at 205 PM EST Mon Feb 26 2024

No significant flooding is currently expected over the next several
days. The next best chance of widespread rainfall is expected to
arrive around Friday into the weekend. Currently, rainfall amounts
of 1 to 2 inches are expected, mainly across portions of the Florida
panhandle and southeast Alabama with lighter totals over the eastern
portions of the area. This amount of rainfall would not cause any
significant flooding concerns.



Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.


Tallahassee   76  60  79  53 /   0   0  10  10
Panama City   72  63  73  52 /   0   0  10  10
Dothan        78  61  81  46 /   0   0  20  10
Albany        78  59  79  46 /   0   0  20  20
Valdosta      79  57  79  52 /   0   0  10  10
Cross City    76  55  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  70  62  71  55 /   0   0  10  10


FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening
     for FLZ108-112-114-115.



NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
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