569
FXUS64 KTSA 262328
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
628 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Radar imagery from KSRX shows isolated convection developing
across southeast OK early this afternoon. Popcorn-type, isolated
showers/storms should persist through sunset, with highest chances
across southeast OK and northwest AR. Locally brief heavy
rainfall, lightning, and sub-severe breezy winds will be the main
impacts with the shower activity. Elsewhere, partly to mostly
sunny skies will continue through the rest of the afternoon, with
temperatures maxing out in the upper 80s/lower 90s.

A weak upper-level low currently centered over the Arklatex
region will continue to pivot northward over northeast
OK/northwest AR by late tonight into early Saturday. Although
there will be a slight uptick in precipitation chances after
midnight, especially across southeast OK and northwest AR, model
guidance has persistently kept best rain chances and highest
rainfall amounts just east of the forecast area. Showers and
storms that do occur will be capable of producing moderate to
heavy rainfall and may cause minor flooding. Otherwise, expect
near-seasonal temperatures tonight with increasing cloud cover as
the night progresses. Overnight low temperatures will range from
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Patchy fog/stratus may redevelop
across portions of southeast OK and northwest AR after midnight.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Saturday still appears to be best chance of widespread showers
and thunderstorms, as well as the coolest day in the period, as a
weak upper-level low drifts over the forecast area. However,
despite an increase in PoPs (20-60%) and PWATs (1.5-1.7 inches),
only light to moderate rainfall amounts are expected. In general,
deterministic models and ensembles only show rainfall
accumulations around half-an-inch or less, with locally higher
amounts occurring with heavier showers/storms, through Sunday. For
the most part, highest amounts are anticipated to fall on the
east side of the upper low -- across southeast OK and northwest
AR. Its also possible some locations may not see much, if any,
measurable precipitation. Precipitation chances will trend lower
through the day Sunday as the upper low transitions into an open
trough and continues to lift northward over Mid Mississippi
Valley.

Mid/upper-level ridging will build over the region from the west
by Monday, strengthening by midweek. This will result in
unseasonably hot temperatures and mostly dry weather for much of
the week. Heat headlines will likely be needed each day Monday
through at least Thursday, with heat indices 105F or higher each
afternoon. Not only will daytime temperatures be excessive, but
nighttime temperatures will be abnormally mild and humid as well,
with overnight lows in the mid-upper 70s Monday night-Wednesday
night. A few spots, including the Tulsa metro, may not drop below
80 degrees a couple of nights. The potent ridge is forecast to
gradually retrograde westward late in the week, which should help
alleviate some of the excessive heat and may allow a weak surface
cold front to push into the forecast area, increasing
precipitation chances on Friday and Saturday. Better details to
come in later forecasts.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

VFR TAF elements will prevail across the NE OK
sites through the valid period. Across the SE OK and
AR sites, VFR elements will prevail through approximately
10z when at that time MVFR cigs are expected to develop
and continue into the afternoon. Chances for RA/TSRA will
increase across the AR sites late morning into the afternoon
as well, so will include TEMPO groups. Cigs across the
aforementioned sites will rise to VFR categories by the last
few hours of the valid period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  88  73  93 /  10  20   0   0
FSM   71  87  73  92 /  30  40  10  20
MLC   69  87  72  91 /  10  30   0  10
BVO   67  89  69  94 /  10  20   0   0
FYV   67  84  69  89 /  30  60  20  20
BYV   68  83  68  89 /  20  60  20  30
MKO   69  86  71  91 /  10  30   0  10
MIO   69  87  70  90 /  20  40  10  20
F10   69  87  71  92 /  10  20   0  10
HHW   69  84  70  89 /  10  30   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...23