Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 031118
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
618 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions remain largely fcst through the period. Afternoon
convection across far E OK / NW AR is expected to remain sparse
enough in coverage to preclude mention. Additional storm chances
arrive after midnight for NE OK and far NW AR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 352 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020/

DISCUSSION...
The main forecast concern this morning continues to be
thunderstorm chances for the next couple of days, prior to the
upper level ridge fully building into the region, with some
isolated potential for strong to severe storms as well.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by
early afternoon across mainly southeast Oklahoma and western
Arkansas today as upper level low pressure moves slowly across the
area. Much like yesterday`s activity, these will be diurnal in
nature and diminish by early to mid evening. Reduced mid and high
cloud cover today, in addition to the expanding upper level ridge,
will lead to temperatures being a few degrees higher than those
seen the last couple of days.

Later tonight and into tomorrow morning, a thunderstorm complex is
expected to develop across portions of Kansas and Missouri on the
northeastern periphery of the aforementioned ridge. Model trends
continue to point toward this complex backbuilding into portions
of northeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas within a few hours of
sunrise tomorrow morning. Instability will be supportive of some
isolated strong to severe storm potential within the complex,
continuing into the daylight hours tomorrow as well.

Most of the region will be dry for a few days beginning Thursday
night, although there is an outside shot of a few diurnal
thunderstorms Friday afternoon in far eastern parts of the
forecast area, depending on how much the ridge expands eastward
prior to that time.

In addition to the thunderstorm concerns the next several days,
increasing heat and humidity remain a likely issue, with heat
stress impacts possible for those not exercising appropriate
caution. Dew points during the afternoon will likely be in the
lower to middle 70s for several days, in the presence of highs
that are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Heat index
values could reach triple digits in a few spots.

As we move into the early to middle part of next week, the
remnants of what is now Tropical Storm Cristobal continue to look
to affect parts of far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas ahead
of a seasonally strong mid week cold front. Although it is too
early to accurately forecast exactly where this will occur, heavy
rainfall will be possible somewhere in the region, depending on
the exact track the system takes. Expect significantly reduced
humidity and temperatures closer to normal values mid week
following the aforementioned frontal passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  74  92  74 /  10  30  20  10
FSM   89  71  91  74 /  30  10  20  10
MLC   88  73  90  73 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   91  72  92  71 /  10  40  30  10
FYV   85  68  88  71 /  30  30  30  10
BYV   85  69  87  72 /  30  30  30  10
MKO   88  71  89  73 /  20  10  20  10
MIO   88  71  89  73 /  20  40  30  10
F10   88  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
HHW   88  71  89  72 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....07



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