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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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804
FXUS64 KTSA 160239
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
939 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Remnant surface boundary stretches across far southern KS into
northern/northeastern OK, just north of Tulsa. Had a few attempts
at convection earlier this evening across Osage county, and
currently the strongest storms remain in southern KS. Will need to
monitor the far northern parts of our forecast area over the next
few hours, but have generally lowered PoPs through the remainder
of the evening. Best chances of overnight storms will mostly stay
west of the area, although recent CAMs solutions suggest an
uptick across parts of Pawnee/Osage counties after 06-07Z as the
low-level jet slowly strengthens.

Updated products will be out shortly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  74  63  78 /  30  90  80  70
FSM   63  79  64  77 /  10  50  80  80
MLC   64  73  63  76 /  30  80  80  70
BVO   62  73  61  76 /  40  90  80  70
FYV   60  75  60  75 /  20  60  90  80
BYV   59  77  61  74 /  20  50  80  80
MKO   62  75  62  76 /  20  70  80  70
MIO   62  75  61  75 /  40  80  90  70
F10   64  73  62  77 /  30  80  80  60
HHW   63  76  63  76 /  30  80  70  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18

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