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000
FXUS64 KTSA 261112
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
612 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Widespread IFR with occasional LIFR cigs will prevail today
along with areas of light to moderate rain. Some thunder will
be possible this morning for the northeast OK sites, along
with a chance of FZRA for KBVO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 405 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Areas of rain/freezing rain have developed overnight in a zone of
decent elevated forcing. Elevated instability has been sufficient
to support thunder, so will add low thunder chances for this
morning across parts of NE OK. Band of precip will move east
northeast across the area with an axis of higher SW to NE oriented
QPF expected across much of eastern Oklahoma. Temperatures look
to drop slightly across northeast OK today, with a small diurnal
trace expected elsewhere. Freezing temps will mostly be confined
to Osage and Pawnee counties, however its possible that the colder
temps expand east in locations near the KS border. With very
limited amounts forecasted outside the current WSW, will leave as
is along with the expiration time.

Better forcing shifts off to the east and southeast tonight, so
higher PoPs will continue across SE OK. Tonight, expect areas of
freezing drizzle across parts of NE OK as these locations will be
in a precip lull overnight. The next wave ejects from the upper
low that will be located over srn AZ/NM. This wave will generate
another round of rain and freezing rain across the area. Freezing
temperatures Monday night and Tuesday morning will generally be
to the northwest of I-44.

The upper low will begin to lift out of the SW and into the plains
Wednesday. Low level temps still look like they will modify as the
system draws closer, thus expect all liquid precip Wednesday and
Thursday as the upper low impacts the region. Elevated instability
associated with the approaching will warrant low thunder chances
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Upper low finally clears the area
late Thursday, which will mark the beginning of a period of
settled conditions(and warmer temperatures) that will continue
into the next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  33  38  37 / 100  50  80  50
FSM   53  44  49  48 /  90  80  70  40
MLC   47  38  45  42 / 100  80  80  50
BVO   34  30  35  33 / 100  40  80  40
FYV   47  38  46  40 / 100  80  80  30
BYV   48  37  46  40 / 100  80  80  30
MKO   44  36  43  40 / 100  70  80  50
MIO   37  32  38  35 / 100  50  80  30
F10   40  34  39  37 / 100  70  80  60
HHW   54  45  50  48 / 100  90  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054-
     059.

AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....18