955
FXUS64 KTSA 112336
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
636 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1211 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

 - Thunderstorms are expected across the region today and tonight.
   Heavy rain... strong downburst winds and hail will accompany the
   strongest storms.

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue the next several days.
   While any thunderstorm will produce heavy rains, Saturday night is
   expected to have the greatest potential for excessive rainfall over a
   larger area. Flash flooding potential will exist with the storms.
   After the several rounds of rain and storms, the flood threat near
   creeks and streams will increase Saturday into Sunday.

-  Rain and thunderstorm coverage will decrease on Sunday, but the chance
   of rainfall will continue, especially in southeast Oklahoma.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Thunderstorms will develop in northeast Oklahoma later this afternoon as
a front moves southeast into the area. Deep-layer shear is expected to
increase with time into the evening and support some potential for severe
storms. Initial storm will have wind and hail potential. After a few hours
the activity will tend to grow upscale into a line and continue southeast
with occasional downbursts becoming the primary threat. The severe potential
should diminish after late evening, but thunderstorms should continue across
southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas. Quick heavy rains could lead
to a local flash flood risk.

FYI... Tulsa touched the record high low temp this morning.  Fort Smith and
Fayetteville stayed above their records. But the final low for the day is
expected to be recorded this evening at Tulsa and Fayetteville with the rain
and storms. Timing for Fort Smith may be close.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Shower and storm activity should be ongoing in southeast Oklahoma on Friday
morning, but then diminish with time. The next shot at storms develops
Friday night across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as one or
more nocturnal storm complexes move through region. The front that crosses
our area tonight and Friday will redevelop north on Saturday and be the focus
for widespread thunderstorm development late Saturday and Saturday evening
in southern Kansas or northern Oklahoma. These storms will pose an
excessive rain threat and some severe storm potential. Measurable rain will
fall across most / all of our area from Saturday night into Sunday, with local
amounts of 3 to 5 inches.  A cluster analysis of model data suggests the max
amounts may center around southeast Kansas, southwest Missouri, and northeast
Oklahoma. An isolated amount near 7 inches is not out of the question given
the current data.

Temps will be down Friday, but rebound Saturday in most areas on Saturday.
While conditions may stay below advisory levels, it will be hot and muggy
for some.

The chance of rain may not completely end in our area until Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Convection will continue to spread east and southeast tonight as a
frontal boundary sags southeast through the CWA. Within the
convection, gusty winds, heavy rain and brief MVFR conditions
could develop. Will continue with tempo groups for timing of
greater potential for each TAF site. Behind the convection, a
period of lingering showers are forecast while ceilings become
scattered/broken mid and high clouds into Friday morning. There
is potential in southeast Oklahoma of MVFR ceilings and additional
showers holding into Friday morning as the boundary slows it
momentum before retreating northward during the day. As the
boundary lifts back over the CWA, again scattered mid and high
clouds are forecast Friday afternoon. Winds through the period
start out southerly, transition to northerly and then easterly
tonight behind the boundary, and finally east to southeast once
the front lifts back through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  85  74  91 /  60  10  10  40
FSM   74  88  75  92 /  90  40  10  30
MLC   73  88  76  91 /  90  50  10  10
BVO   63  84  71  91 /  10  10  30  50
FYV   68  86  72  88 /  90  20  30  50
BYV   66  83  69  86 / 100  10  40  60
MKO   69  85  73  89 /  80  30  10  30
MIO   63  84  70  89 /  40   0  40  70
F10   68  85  73  90 /  80  40  10  20
HHW   75  87  75  91 /  70  70   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...20