Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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631
FXUS64 KTSA 261601
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1101 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Cluster of showers and thunderstorms continues along the OK/KS
border but thus far at least, the heaviest rainfall has remained
north of the border. Flash Flood Watch should be able to expire
by 1 PM as weakening low level jet support will lead to a
decrease in coverage. Outflow boundary may be present this
afternoon from this morning`s storms and as such, will maintain a
slight chance of afternoon storms generally north of US 412.
Coverage should be limited by rising mid level heights and
stronger capping. This should also limit the threat of storms
later tonight as another complex likely develops and makes a run
toward eastern OK late tonight. Still could ultimately see a
threat of strong to severe storms late tonight mainly west of
Tulsa area if complex can develop a strong enough cold pool, but
this remains to be seen.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 642 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms early this morning and late
tonight will be most likely to affect KBVO.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 346 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019/

.Major to historic river flooding continues across northeast
   Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas...

DISCUSSION...
Another active night for the region as multiple QLCS tornadoes
likely occurred across northeast Oklahoma. Could still see
lingering showers/thunderstorms through mid morning on the back
side of thunderstorm complex in region of stronger WAA. In
addition to the severe weather earlier, 1 to 2 inch rainfall
amounts fell across the Arkansas basin, which will likely further
increase inflows into lakes that are already at or near capacity.
A flash flood watch remains in effect through 8 AM for NE OK given
the low flash flood guidance/saturated grounds. Numerous rivers
remain in major or record flood and this will likely persist for
much of the upcoming week.

Thunderstorms are again expected to develop across western Kansas/
Texas panhandle this afternoon. This activity will likely try to
make a run towards northeast Oklahoma tonight, however it appears
rain amounts should be less than early this morning and more
confined to areas northwest of Tulsa.

Another strong upper level storm system is expected to move out of
the the central Rockies and into the central plains on Tuesday.
Expect another round of strong to severe thunderstorms to develop
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as 90+ knot upper jet streak
lifts into Kansas. Heavy rainfall will again be a threat,
including the potential for flash flooding and river flooding. A
secondary upper wave is expected to approach on Wednesday with the
heavy rainfall threat shifting into southeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas.

Mostly dry weather anticipated Thursday and Friday behind departing
system as weak surface high pressure builds into the area. At least
limited rain chances return by Saturday as stronger southwest
flow aloft develops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  72  88  70 /  20  20  10  10
FSM   89  70  89  71 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   86  70  86  72 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   86  69  87  69 /  60  30  10  10
FYV   85  64  85  66 /  30  10  10  10
BYV   87  66  88  67 /  40  10  10  10
MKO   85  68  87  68 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   84  69  87  69 /  70  20  10  10
F10   84  70  85  68 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   86  69  88  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ054>058.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14



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