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000
FXUS64 KTSA 070914
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
414 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

Today will see lower coverage of diurnal convection than what we
have seen the past few days, with most activity confined to the
western and southern parts of the forecast area. Afternoon high
temperatures will remain similar to what they have been the past
couple days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

Diurnal convective coverage will increase again Thursday and
Friday as a weak backdoor frontal boundary tries to push into the
area from the northeast. Convective coverage will increase further
over the weekend as a more substantial cold front moves into and
through the area. Flow aloft will also be increasing over the
weekend, so a few severe storms will be possible.

Somewhat cooler and drier air will move into the area behind the
front, which may keep things dry Monday, but shower and storm
chances will increase by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week as
the next storm system moves into the area. The medium range models
diverge greatly on the placement of surface boundaries by this
time, so the severe weather threat for the middle part of next
week remains highly uncertain at this point in time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

Fog potential at KFYV may result in VLIFR categories at times
between 08z-11z, with MVFR fog to prevail through 12z-13z.
KRVS may have periods of MVFR/IFR vsbys in the same time frame.
Otherwise, VFR TAF elements will prevail outside of fog, and at
the remaining sites through the entire period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  68  91  67 /  10  10  30  20
FSM   93  68  93  68 /  10  10  50  10
MLC   90  64  90  65 /  20  10  20  10
BVO   91  63  91  61 /  10  10  30  20
FYV   89  62  89  60 /  10  10  50  20
BYV   90  63  90  60 /  10  20  50  20
MKO   91  65  91  66 /  10  10  30  20
MIO   90  65  90  62 /  10  10  40  20
F10   89  65  89  65 /  20  10  20  10
HHW   90  65  90  66 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...23