048
FXUS64 KTSA 122336
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
636 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
   thru the weekend and likely lasting into Monday, with
   potential for locally heavy rainfall. A Flood Watch is in
   effect until 7 PM Sunday for all of the NWS Tulsa forecast
   area.

 - Rain/storm chances become more diurnally driven by Tuesday,
   with the best coverage shifting to the northeast of the area.

 - A weak front approaching the area from the north will continue
   to bring chances for storms Wednesday and Thursday.

 - Storm chances drop off by the end of the week as ridging tries
   to build in aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Quite the complex scenario unfolding today. First, a band of
storms across NE OK and NW AR thru the morning hours along a mid-
lvl front has pushed an outflow boundary (quite evident on vis
satellite imagery) south and west down to the I-40 corridor early
this afternoon. The boundary still has a good push on the western
end, and will move into central OK. On the eastern end, not as
much of a southward push, so it`s likely this boundary will be a
focus for storms across SE OK into the afternoon. Second, there is
a pair of MCVs, one larger scale system over SW KS/OK Panhandle,
and smaller scale one moving east over west-central OK. The
smaller system is moving east at a quicker pace and could play a
role in the afternoon convective layout this afternoon, while also
interacting with aforementioned outflow boundary. The guidance is
hitting on central OK for the greatest storm coverage likely
because of these features, with some of this activity spilling
into NE OK this evening. The HREF shows a large footprint of heavy
rainfall potential there. There will also be an isolated severe
wet downburst threat with any tall storms. How far east this
activity pushes into the forecast area is uncertain. Trends later
on this evening suggest a downtick in coverage followed by an
uptick later tonight across SE OK in advance of the approaching
larger scale low pressure/MCV.

PWATs in advance of the low pressure aloft will be high, on the
order of 2 inches plus. With scattered to numerous slow-moving and
training storms in an environment favorable for efficient rainfall
producers, we have elected to extend and expand the Flood Watch
thru the day on Sunday for all of the NWS Tulsa forecast area.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

The CAMs suggest that the low pressure/MCV currently over SW KS/OK
Panhandle will make its way into northeast OK on Sunday. Scattered
to numerous storms can be expected on its southern and eastern
flanks, from SE OK up into W AR. Locally heavy rainfall remains
the main threat, with an isolated severe wet downburst threat as
well. While the HREF doesn`t show any discernable heavy rain
signal on Sunday, the latest HRRR suggested locally heavy rains
from 4 to 7 inches are possible. This system should be passing us
by Monday, but scattered to numerous storms are again expected on
its south to southwestern flank, still within the deep layer moist
axis. Storm coverage will be more diurnally driven by this time,
dropping off by evening thru Tuesday. A weak front will bring
increased chances across the north Wednesday and Thursday.

Ensemble cluster analysis indicates good agreement that ridging
will build in aloft by the end of next week. Rain/storm chances
will drop to slight or low end chance in the east and will be
diurnally driven. There are a couple of scenarios that suggest the
ridging will be more transient, but we`ll just have to wait and
see.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail this evening with scattered
showers and storms gradually diminishing. Ceilings will lower to
MVFR to IFR late tonight into Sunday morning, and shower and storm
chances will once again increase at that time, with the Arkansas
sites most likely to be impacted. Ceilings will improve to VFR
Sunday afternoon, with some storm threat continuing, especially at
the Arkansas sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  84  71  87 /  50  60  20  40
FSM   74  87  73  89 /  40  70  30  60
MLC   71  84  70  87 /  60  60  40  60
BVO   69  84  69  87 /  60  50  10  30
FYV   69  85  68  86 /  40  70  20  60
BYV   69  85  69  87 /  40  70  20  50
MKO   70  82  70  84 /  50  60  30  50
MIO   70  83  69  85 /  50  60  10  40
F10   70  83  70  86 /  60  60  30  50
HHW   71  84  70  87 /  60  60  30  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...05