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000
FXUS64 KTSA 171136
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
636 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated areas of lower visibilities should quickly improve after
sunrise this morning with east to south winds and passing high
clouds. By this afternoon...scattered mid level clouds look to
develop along with an isolated thunderstorm potential. With the
isolated potential coverage will hold off on mentioning at any one
TAF site. Passing high clouds and light winds should again be
common across the CWA for this evening and overnight tonight. VFR
conditions should persist through the majority of the period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 333 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019/

DISCUSSION...
The unseasonably warm weather will continue today with highs
temperatures generally similar to yesterday with scattered high
clouds across NE OK/NW AR as upper jet streak lifts into the
central Plains. With a slow increase in low level moisture highs
on Wednesday should be a degree or two cooler and again on
Thursday as clouds begin to spread into the area from the south. A
few scattered showers/thunderstorms may develop across southeast
Oklahoma Thursday afternoon during peak heating.

Remnants of tropical low, currently off the upper Texas coast,
will slowly lift north through eastern Texas Thursday and into
the ARKLATX region on Friday with increasing precip chances,
especially across southeast Oklahoma. With the extensive cloud
cover expected, high temperatures Friday should be closer to
normal for this time of year.

GFS remains aggressive with pushing weak front into the area
Saturday into Saturday night with widespread showers/thunderstorms
along southward moving boundary Saturday night into Sunday. ECMWF
slower with boundary, keeping precipitation north of the area
until Sunday night/Monday. Given the model uncertainties,
generally went with a blend concerning pops during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  71  92  71 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   95  72  95  73 /  10   0  20  10
MLC   96  71  94  71 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   92  69  91  70 /   0   0  10   0
FYV   91  69  90  69 /  10   0  20  10
BYV   93  69  92  70 /  10   0  20  10
MKO   92  71  91  71 /  10   0  10  10
MIO   91  70  91  70 /  10   0  20   0
F10   93  70  92  70 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   97  71  95  71 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....20