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000
FXUS64 KTSA 242110
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
410 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...
At mid afternoon...the upper low was positioned across Northern
Missouri/Southern Iowa with the cold front extending southwestward
through Southwest Missouri into Northeast Oklahoma along a line
from near Grove to Okemah and finally into South Central Oklahoma
and Western Texas. Latest meso analysis indicated the cap
continuing to weaken with a surface instability axis centered
along and just east of the cold front. In response...radar echoes
have begun to develop along the front across East Central
Oklahoma...moving eastward toward Northwest Arkansas.

Into the evening hours...the cold front is expected to continue to
slide east southeast through Southeast Oklahoma and Western
Arkansas as the upper low begins to trek more southeast toward the
Ohio River Valley. The surface instability axis is forecast to be
maximized across Southeast Oklahoma...where surface dewpoints in
the low 60s currently resided. Thus...as the cap continues to
erode into the early evening hours...thunderstorms are forecast to
continue to develop along the frontal boundary mainly across
Southeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas with the potential to
become strong to severe. 40-50KT of deep layer shear combined
with steep mid level lapse rates will allow for the potential for
large hail and also damaging winds to be the main threats with
this activity. 0-1km shear values continue to look fairly weak
which should limit over all tornado potentials...though the threat
is not zero. The greater severe potential looks to be generally
along and east of a line from near Antlers to near Fort Smith
where the surface instability max was located.

Current indications are that by mid evening...03z...the cap
should begin strengthening over the region as the cold front is
forecast to be nearly exiting the CWA to the south and east. The
result is the greater thunderstorm potential should shift south
and east of the CWA with any remaining thunderstorms exiting the
CWA by 06z. Between the 03-06z range...a decreasing strong/severe
potential will remain possible though much more limited than
earlier in the evening.

Behind the cold front...drier air and northerly winds will spread
southward over the region tonight as well as cloud cover
associated with the backside of the upper low. These conditions
will help to keep temperatures from bottoming out with lows in the
40s forecast for most locations over the CWA. During the day
Monday...this cloud cover looks to remain over mainly Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas until another quick moving
shortwave within upper level northwesterly flow pushes through the
region Monday night/Tuesday. Behind this shortwave...a ridge of
high pressure is progged to push through the Plains with a return
of southerly winds and a warming trend Wednesday and Thursday.

Southerly winds increase Wednesday and become gusty Thursday
ahead of the next forecast low pressure looking to move into the
region. Gusts 25-35 mph and temps back in the upper 60s/lower 70s
will help to increase fire weather dangers for the CWA before
moisture returns with the approaching low pressure system Friday.
Latest extended model solutions differ on the timing of this next
system and its associated cold front. Thus...for this
forecast...have continued with a blended approach with shower and
thunderstorm chances becoming possible Thursday and increasing
Friday into Saturday as the system moves through.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   45  60  40  65 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   48  64  42  65 /  50  10   0   0
MLC   47  65  39  66 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   44  59  36  63 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   44  56  36  59 /  20  10   0   0
BYV   46  55  37  57 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   46  61  40  64 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   45  56  37  60 /   0  10   0   0
F10   46  61  40  65 /   0  10   0   0
HHW   50  68  44  67 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20