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000
FXUS64 KTSA 211124
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
524 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid
period at all area sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 313 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Cold start to your Friday with temperatures in the teens/20s with
the Arctic high overhead. Despite the chilly morning, expect
afternoon temperatures to bounce back into 40s under full sun.
Warmer still by Saturday, with south winds returning and highs
expected to reach the 50s for all areas.

Upper low currently off the west coast will move inland by
Saturday, and eventually track into the southern Plains by late
Sunday. Warm air advection and increasing moisture advection will
result in increasing PoPs later Sunday and especially Sunday
night, with the heaviest rainfall likely focusing near and north
the warm front that will be roughly situated along the KS/OK
border. Could also have some isolated thunder Sunday
evening/overnight as the cold core low moves through and very
modest elevated instability develops.

The lead upper low will exit east by Monday, followed by a fast
moving upper system poised to swing through Tuesday/Tuesday
night. This system will bring mainly low chances of light
precipitation for Tuesday, although forecast thermal profiles
continue to look cold enough to support a rain/snow mix or
eventual changeover to light snow across parts of northeast
OK/northwest AR by Tuesday night. At this time, any accumulations
look to be very minor. Chilly, but dry weather will continue for
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....10