Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
000
FXUS64 KTSA 062321
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
521 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. South winds
will increase Sunday morning and become gusty.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 252 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021/
DISCUSSION...
Fire weather will be the main concern into the middle part of
next week, as above normal temperatures and gusty southerly winds
will prevail each day from Sunday through at least Thursday.
Sunday and Monday will likely be the days of greatest concern,
and conditions will not be far from red flag criteria those two
afternoons. Increasing dewpoints and cloudiness will help mitigate
the threat somewhat by the middle of next week.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by late Wednesday
night and Thursday, and will continue through next weekend as a
slow moving frontal boundary sags south into the area. There is
some uncertainty as to whether this front ever fully clears the
area, and it may just meander across the area for several days,
resulting in several rounds of showers and storms, and potentially
resulting in a fairly large temperature gradient across the area.
The potential does exist for both severe weather and locally
heavy rainfall late this week into next weekend, but it is much
too early to iron out the details.
The deterministic National Blend of Models looks too cool on high
temperatures most days, with the NBM 50th percentile appearing
more reasonable.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 39 69 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 36 68 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 35 68 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 33 68 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 30 65 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 34 66 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 35 68 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 37 66 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
F10 37 68 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 35 66 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....18