Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 062321
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
521 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. South winds
will increase Sunday morning and become gusty.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 252 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Fire weather will be the main concern into the middle part of
next week, as above normal temperatures and gusty southerly winds
will prevail each day from Sunday through at least Thursday.
Sunday and Monday will likely be the days of greatest concern,
and conditions will not be far from red flag criteria those two
afternoons. Increasing dewpoints and cloudiness will help mitigate
the threat somewhat by the middle of next week.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by late Wednesday
night and Thursday, and will continue through next weekend as a
slow moving frontal boundary sags south into the area. There is
some uncertainty as to whether this front ever fully clears the
area, and it may just meander across the area for several days,
resulting in several rounds of showers and storms, and potentially
resulting in a fairly large temperature gradient across the area.
The potential does exist for both severe weather and locally
heavy rainfall late this week into next weekend, but it is much
too early to iron out the details.

The deterministic National Blend of Models looks too cool on high
temperatures most days, with the NBM 50th percentile appearing
more reasonable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   39  69  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   36  68  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   35  68  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   33  68  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   30  65  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   34  66  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   35  68  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   37  66  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
F10   37  68  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  66  38  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....18



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