Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 131814
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
114 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 13 2018

A different day but little change to the pattern we`ve seen the
past two days with upper trough in the west and quasi-stationary
front to the south. Spotty pockets of convection were located over
the region at 07Z with the two main areas that may impact parts
of eastern Nebraska later this morning over north central KS and
north central NE. Short range models try to spread the remnants of
these two convective pockets into the northeast and southeast
corners of the area through mid morning with activity weakening
and shifting further northeast through the late morning, with the
afternoon dry. Similar to yesterday the frontal boundary over
northeast KS may lift north into the southeast corner of NE and
possibly southwest IA by the afternoon allowing the warm and humid
air mass to briefly push into that area for a time. Temperatures
will show a sharp contrast near this boundary as temperatures
remain quite cool to the north.

More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
near and north of the front tonight stretching from southwest NE
across central IA and into northern IL. Better forcing will come
into play across the region tonight associated with a couple of
weak shortwaves and an increasing low level jet. GFS shows more of
an emphasis on convection along the surface boundary across KS
compared to other models so later runs will need to be monitored
today for this trend.

The surface front looks to shift further north for Monday and
Monday night before again getting pushed south on Tuesday. Rain
chances will continue in the vicinity of the front during that
time so actual location will be the deciding factor concerning
PoPs and temperatures in the southern parts of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 13 2018

With the expected push of the front further south for Tuesday
night and Wednesday and the filling of the upper low in the west,
models suggest a period of mainly dry weather for the area that
could extend into Friday before a more active pattern returns for
Friday night and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018

Variable ceilings and winds today due to the morning convection
with VFR to IFR. Expect MVFR/IFR conditions to settle back in with
the surface front south of the TAF sites. Some storms may develop
south of KLNK and others may develop this evening and even others
may reach all the TAF sites later tonight and Monday. Warm air
advection and a subtle wave/increasing low level jet may increase
convection this evening. Additional storm chances later tonight
and Monday with mid level warm advection an a stronger wave over
eastern New Mexico. Due to the low predictability of timing and
coverage included vcts.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Zapotocny



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