Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 142340

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
Issued by National Weather Service HASTINGS NE
640 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Critical fire weather conditions have been the focus today as the
combination of gusty southwesterly winds and low relative humidity
values developed across the local area. These stronger winds are
largely a result of deep mixing across the region...which should
correspondingly decrease fairly rapidly this evening as the sun
gets lower in the sky and the stronger winds from aloft decouple.
Winds will then become mostly light...around 5 MPH or less they gradually shift and become easterly during the
morning hours Thursday.

While we will likely see some increasing high clouds through the
day Thursday...dry conditions and above seasonal temperatures are
forecast across the area ahead of an upper level low forecast to
swing out of the southwest and into the plains late tomorrow night
through Friday. This system will bring a chance for a variety of
precipitation types to the region beginning late tomorrow night
and lasting through Friday Night. Ahead of this system could see
some elevated fire weather conditions again tomorrow
afternoon across extreme southeastern Nebraska...but with
slightly cooler temperatures and increasing dew points...relative
humidity values should remain above critical thresholds.

Tomorrow night...expect light precipitation to spread northeast
across the forecast area through the overnight hours...with a
small axis of instability across our south justifying the mention
of an isolated non severe thunderstorm or two. For northern
areas...expect a chance for some freezing rain to impact portions
of the area as surface temperatures drop to near freezing with a
warm nose of air aloft. At this time...the best chance for a
wintry mix of precip appears to be along and north of a line from
Neligh, Nebraska to Atlantic, Iowa. Total ice accumulations of
around a tenth of an inch will be possible across this area
Thursday night through Friday morning. In addition...a light
dusting of snow will be possible in spots over the same time
period...with less than one inch of snow forecast generally
forecast north of a line from Wayne, Nebraska to Clearwater,
Nebraska. Precipitation during the daytime Friday should
eventually transition to rain for the entire forecast
area...before cooler air working in from the north brings another
shot of mixed precip to the area overnight Friday. At this
time...a second light glazing of ice appears possible...and may
even make its way further south and impact the Omaha metro area
for a couple of hours before daybreak Saturday.

Precipitation should taper off across the local area by Saturday
morning...with near seasonable temperatures and decreasing cloud
cover anticipated throughout the day as the responsible low
pressure system tracks east and a weak ridge aloft transitions
into eastern Nebraska late in the day.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Dry weather is anticipated to start the extended periods across
the local area as a weak ridge of high pressure aloft works its
way across the region ahead of the next upper level system
forecast to impact the local area by Sunday afternoon. Still some
discrepancies in model data on the exact track and impacts of this
system...but another period of wintry precipitation will be
possible with some light snowfall accumulations possible Sunday
night into Monday morning and again Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Seasonable temperatures and dry weather will then return
to finish out the extended periods...but models are indicating
this more active and potentially cooler than normal weather
pattern will likely continue beyond the current scope of the


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the forecast.
South to southwesterly winds have decreased and will be light
overnight becoming easterly by morning. Easterly winds will become
breezy with gusts up to 25kts by afternoon. Clear skies expected
tonight, but some high level clouds will move in during the day


NE...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ068-088>093.

IA...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ090-091.



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