Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 130441

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1141 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Quiet weather through the short term, although fire danger will be
increasing dramatically by Wednesday.

High pressure across the area today with northwesterly flow and
abundant sunshine. There is a weak wave moving off the front
range of the northern Rockies and this may bring a few clouds to
the area tonight, along with a reinforcing shot of cool high
pressure for Tuesday. Highs similar tomorrow to today with
abundant sunshine, but perhaps a couple of degrees cooler.

Surface high pressure ridge slides east Tuesday night bringing a
return southwesterly surface flow on Wednesday. Wind speeds
increase to 15 to 20 mph, which should help boost temps into the
60s for most areas, with some locations possibly even reaching the
mid to upper 60s. This drives humidity down to 25 to 35 percent
during the afternoon, and while not low enough to create red flag
conditions, high to very high grassland fire danger will develop.

Cyclogenesis takes place across the front range of the Central
Rockies Wednesday night as a weak front settles into the area,
which in turn backs our surface flow to the east of southeast on
Thursday. This will result in a much tighter temperature gradient
from north to south, ranging from the lower 50s north of the
boundary to the upper 70s south. This will again result in an
elevated fire danger in southeast NE, although afternoon dewpoints
should be 10-15 degrees higher than Wednesday which greatly
mitigates the hazard.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Model agreement begins to deteriorate quickly heading into the
long term, which results in a pretty low confidence forecast for
the period. The first wave begins to eject out of the Rockies
early in the period, but each model has its own idea of how this
happens, and dramatically different thermal profiles. Thus stuck
to the blends through the period. Rain chances increase Thursday
night into Friday, with pops increasing to 40 to 70 by Friday
morning. Could even be some thunder in this along the KS/NE
border, and could even be a rain/snow mix in some areas, and even
all snow on the northern edge. But again, to stress, overall
confidence is very low at this time. Saturday based on model
blends will probably be dry, but precip chances increase again for
Sunday and Monday, which would again be a rain/snow mix, with more
rain to the south, and more snow to the north, but details remain
elusive with widely varying model solutions.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Surface high pressure will remain in place over the region through
the forecast period. Other than some passing mid and high-level
clouds, expect prevailing VFR conditions.




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