364
FXUS64 KOHX 080531
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1231 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

It`s been a quiet evening across the area but that should start to
change over the next several hours. A short wave trough is moving
over the Great Lakes with a cold front stretching to our west.
Storms have started to develop along this cold front over southern
IL and we should continue to see storms develop along this front
over IL south into KY. The latest models are pushing back timing
for us a bit but we should start to see a few storms develop over
TN after 10 PM. The front will then start to push in from the
north after midnight and that will bring the best chance for
widespread convection. Storms will continue to push south
overnight to around daybreak. Meso Analysis shows a ton of CAPE
over our area with MLCAPE above 2000 j/kg and bulk shear above 40
knots. This is plenty to see some more organized storms. Winds and
large hail are going to be the main threat with storms. Still
can`t rule out a tornado or two as we will see low level veering
in the winds and 0-1 km shear above 20 knots, but things do look
to get capped off by midnight or so which should limit the
tornado threat. PWAT values are between 1.40-1.50" across the area
and heavy rain can be expected with any thunderstorms.

The cold front will stall over our area tomorrow morning and start
to lift north as a warm front. As the front transition to a warm
front we could get training storms along this boundary and flash
flooding would be a major concern if we see that set up. There is
some uncertainty on where we see that front set up and how slow
it will be to push north of our area. It will likely push north of
our area by the early afternoon and that will likely give us a
brief break in widespread convection and heavy rain before the
next round moves in. More severe weather is likely tomorrow and
you should remain weather aware and up to date with the latest
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday night)
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Earlier this morning, a weakening area of showers and
thunderstorms was clipping our far northwest. This activity
remained sub severe. And now it`s warm and muggy once again with
current temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. High temperatures
are expected to reach the mid 80s so we will become more unstable
as we reach into the afternoon hours. Dynamics are still quite
weak and afternoon convective coverage will be limited. However,
storms that fire could still reach severe limits as capes increase
into the 2000-2500 j/kg range.

A weakening front will be on approach tonight. This will lead to a
line of convection which will push toward our northwestern counties
around 9 pm or so. Still plenty of instability will be in place
along with some shear as well. The activity will work across the
area and reach our southern counties toward sunrise. Again, all
severe types will be in play but the better chances appear to be
across our northern half where the slight risk resides.

On Wednesday, what appears to be a warm front will be lifting
northward in the morning. This will bring us yet another potential
threat of severe weather through about midday. In the afternoon, the
warm front will shift the better focus of severe to our north across
KY. This may hold through the afternoon but will only serve to allow
us to warm up and destabilize even more.

Wednesday night looks like the biggest of all the severe weather
rounds. The primary catalyst will be a cold front with the fropa
expected late Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Prior to the
fropa, it looks as though convection will fire in the prefrontal
area as well as along and just ahead of the boundary. Excellent
phasing of forcing, instability and shear looks likely. Mid level
lapse rates support large hail so all types of severe are on the
table. Timing looks like from 6 pm through 3 am, so a long night
looks to be in store. Helicities are in the 150-300 range but the
classic type of synoptic spring storm setup is not quite there.
The upper pattern is zonal with some w-e elongation noted with the
surface low. However, with the aforementioned strong phasing, the
tornadic threat is still appreciable. Otherwise, flooding could
also be concern, depending largely on how much rain occurs during
the Wednesday morning/early afternoon earlier round.

Near term temps continue to look warm through Thursday with 60s for
lows and mostly lower 80s for highs. We will cool down some by
Friday morning, behind the front, with upper 40s and lower 50s for
lows.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

In the extended forecast, there will still be a few shower chances
into the weekend along with cooler temperatures. This will be
followed by warmer temps for early next week as some ridging
returns. The cooler temps over the weekend will feature lows upper
40s to lower 50s, warming back up to around 60 degrees next week.
Highs will be in the 70s for the weekend, and then lower 80s next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Complex and uncertain forecast over the next 24 hours. Do expect
most to remain VFR for the next few hours, with CSV/SRB being
outliers and currently having MVFR cigs. A line of TSRA will move
closer to the area after 09Z, but there is a lot of uncertainty
with coverage and intensity from then through most of tomorrow.
Coverage will likely be scattered, but if TSRA moves directly over
a terminal could experience VIS/CIG impacts and gustier winds
than currently in the TAF. Another round and increased confidence
in TSRA near the end of the current TAF period. Winds will remain
generally from the south throughout the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      84  69  84  58 /  90  80  50  10
Clarksville    82  68  82  54 /  80  90  30  10
Crossville     79  63  78  53 /  80  80  70  20
Columbia       85  66  85  55 /  80  90  60  20
Cookeville     80  65  80  54 /  90  90  70  20
Jamestown      80  63  78  53 /  90  90  70  20
Lawrenceburg   84  66  84  56 /  70  80  70  20
Murfreesboro   85  66  84  55 /  70  90  50  20
Waverly        82  65  83  54 /  80  80  30  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham-
Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Fentress-Giles-
Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-
Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-
Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-Wayne-
White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Mueller
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Adcock