212
FXUS64 KOHX 142318
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
618 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Light showers continue across our west and some new showers have
developed across our southeast. The main focus of the forecast is
this afternoon as we monitor the potential for a few strong to
severe thunderstorms. The biggest question is will the atmosphere
be allowed to destabilize enough for strong convection to happen?
Looking to our west, there are pockets of clearing in the clouds,
so if that trend continues east behind these ongoing showers,
then we`ll likely be able to achieve higher instability. Another
question is will enough dry air filter in aloft to increase our
lapse rates? Profiles are pretty saturated this morning, so
unless more dry air builds in in the mid-levels, this will also
hurt strong thunderstorm development. The line of thunderstorms has
developed over northern MS and western TN and is moving east-
northeast towards ours area.

IF we are able to destabilize and lapse rates steepen a bit more
to get a good updraft going, storms will have the potential to
produce damaging winds and hail. The latest short-term guidance
suggests that our atmosphere will destabilize with surface-based
instability values near 2000 J/Kg and mid-level instability (for
hail potential) near 1500 J/Kg this afternoon. 0-6km shear is
still on the low-ish side on most of the new models; between 25-30
kts, but that`s still enough for thunderstorms to work with.
Models show mid-level lapse rates reaching 7 C/km or a touch
higher, specifically across our southeastern counties. For the
wind threat, DCAPE and PWAT values are quite high for this
afternoon, lending to the thought of some heavy downpours coming
out of the storms, increasing wind potential. In terms of tornado
threat, 0-1km storm-relative helicity values are showing at or
below 100 ms2/s2, so tornadoes are lower on the list of threats
today. I`m hesitant to say the threat is zero because the
ingredients are there, even if some are a bit lacking. Regardless,
be weather aware this afternoon in the event a warning be issued
for your area! Timing of thunderstorm impacts looks to be from 1pm to
7 or 8pm tonight.

A cold front is expected to push across the area later tonight, and
as the surface low continues to spin out of the area, some scattered
showers can be expected to linger into the day Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Shower activity will decrease and things should mostly clear out
come Wednesday night. A ridge will quickly build in aloft that will
help squeeze our temperatures up into the mid 80s by Thursday and
also give us a rain-free day. But as quickly as that ridge moves in,
it moves out, and we`ll be on to our next round of unsettled weather
Friday and into the weekend. Rainfall amounts this weekend are near
1".

Weekend temperatures look to hang right around 80, warming into
the mid 80s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will diminish across the area
by 04z. IFR/LIFR conditions can be expected in any thunderstorms
due to low cigs, low vis, and heavy rain. MVFR cigs set in
overnight for all of the terminals possibly falling to IFR at
times except for the easter terminals where IFR cigs are
expected. Cigs will start to come up some after 16z. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms tomorrow after 16z. South winds
under 10 knots lighten up overnight and become more westerly and
then shift northerly tomorrow up to 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      61  78  61  84 /  50  60  10  10
Clarksville    60  75  59  82 /  50  50  10  10
Crossville     57  71  57  77 / 100  90  20  10
Columbia       60  77  58  83 /  40  50  10  10
Cookeville     59  72  59  78 /  90  90  20  10
Jamestown      57  71  57  77 / 100  90  20  10
Lawrenceburg   61  76  59  83 /  50  50  10  10
Murfreesboro   60  78  59  83 /  60  70  10  10
Waverly        60  76  58  83 /  40  50  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Mueller