Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
000
FXUS65 KPIH 121106
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
506 AM MDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today and Wednesday.
As an upper trough moves onshore this morning, current satellite
imagery shows mid-level and high clouds filtering into Idaho through
the upper-level southwesterly flow. Associated precipitation is
already ongoing across SE Idaho as far east as Pocatello north to
Island Park. With widespread overnight temperatures still in the
upper 30s across the lower elevations, snow levels are generally
above 5,000 feet areawide. There is a short window through around 10
AM this morning during which light snow accumulations of around a
Trace to half inch will be possible along the I-15 corridor from
Pocatello north. A cold front will shift eastward through the region
this afternoon, with hi-res models continuing to show convective
enhancement associated with the frontal passage. This would result
in higher snowfall totals under these enhanced snow bands with
chances for lightning, gusty winds, and quick reductions in
visibility where temperatures support snow. The HREF continues to
feature a 10-30% probability of thunder generally south of the Snake
Plain, extending from the Shoshone area further south and east.
Furthermore, the Storm Prediction Center now includes all of Idaho
in a general risk of thunder today. Snow levels will drop below
valley floors overnight tonight behind the front which will allow
for minor accumulations throughout the day Wednesday in our valleys.
Of greater impact could be a potential Snake Plain convergence
setup, with strong signatures on hi-res models for surface winds to
converge Wednesday afternoon as a closed low develops over Idaho and
drops south into Nevada/Utah. While exact amounts and timing will be
tricky to pin down, 2 to 3 inches could accumulate along the western
benches of Pocatello with around 1 to 2 inches in Idaho Falls and
further north. Be sure to stay informed of the latest updates and
conditions if you plan to travel during this timeframe. For our
higher elevations, accumulations of 4 to 10 inches with localized
higher totals above pass levels remain on track for the Sawtooths,
South Hills, Big Holes, Centennials, and Bear River Range, where
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES remain in place through Wednesday
afternoon. Cropp

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...
A ridge of high pressure centered along the Pacific coast will
gradually exert increasing influence inland across the nrn Rockies,
leading to growing confidence in a long-duration period of dry,
mostly clear/sunny, low-impact wx from Thu right into early next
week. The ridge will tend to flatten at some point next week with a
fresh storm eventually cutting into it from the north. Right now,
next Wed is favored for this across the deterministic model suite.
500mb height cluster analysis offers high confidence in the ridge
dominating through Mon, with about 40% of the ensemble space at
least mildly hinting at some potential for troughing cutting in
somewhere across the PacNW as early as Tue (although with little to
no precip reaching our CWA). High temps are likely to gradually warm
throughout the period, with low 50s becoming widespread at lower
elevations by Sun, and potentially some 60s working into the ern
Magic Valley and Raft River area by next Tue. The longer we hold
onto the ridge, the warmer temps will climb! 01


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 158 PM MDT MON MAR 11 2024...
Showers are coming to end from west to east this afternoon, having
already moved through SUN and BYI (and likely just arriving at PIH
by the time this discussion is published). After this line passes
through IDA and DIJ, everyone will have a brief break from the
precipitation, but the next round arrives overnight at SUN and
spreads eastward. Temperatures will be right around freezing early
Tuesday morning, so while snow is expected at SUN and DIJ, we may
see a mix at BYI, PIH, and IDA before we begin to warm through the
day. Where we see snow, drops in VIS and CIGs will produce IFR
conditions. Heading into Tuesday afternoon, precipitation will
become more showery. AMM


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM MDT this evening for IDZ056-
072.

Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM MDT Wednesday for IDZ060-064.

Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM MDT Wednesday for IDZ066.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.