Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 240936
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
336 AM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night.
Will have rain and snow showers today with snow levels at valley
floors this morning rising to 5 thousand feet this afternoon and
should mix with or change to rain in the valleys. Snow amounts
will be light with 1 to 3 inches in the mountains through tonight
and under an inch in the valleys. Monday will be similar with snow
and rain with snow levels again at valley floors overnight tonight
and Monday morning. Again light amounts Monday with generally
around an inch or two in the mountains and less than an inch in
valleys. Temperatures will be much colder with highs in the 30s
mountains and 40s valleys both today and Monday and lows tonight
and and Monday night in the 20s to around 30 in the valleys and
teens and 20s in the mountains.
GK

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday.
The long term will be marked by several disturbances keeping
temperatures moderated under wetter than normal conditions through
the balance of the upcoming week and into next weekend. Broad
troughing centered over the central CONUS will allow for diurnally
driven showers to continue into Tuesday over central and eastern
Idaho. Temperatures will top out in the 40s for most cities Tuesday,
allowing for a possible mix of rain and snow through the Snake Plain
and adjacent valley locations.

Wednesday still looks to be the drier and warmer day in the midweek
timeframe with a shortwave ridge passing aloft. Fairly good
agreement exists across ensemble suite with relatively even split
among the 500mb height cluster anomalies. Expect temperatures to top
out in the upper 40s to mid 50s for many cities and only modest
chances for lingering showers in the Eastern Highlands Wednesday
afternoon. The respite will be short-lived, however, as the next
disturbance will be advancing toward the PacNW with a moisture
stream aimed our way late Weds into Thurs.

Precipitation chances will quickly ramp up late Wednesday into
Thursday across the central Idaho mountains. Current projections
have precipitation likely across the entirety of central and east
Idaho by Thursday afternoon. By the Thursday evening the NBM has a
majority of our forecast area at a greater than 50% chance of
receiving at least 0.20" of liquid precipitation. For the high
elevations of the central mountains, Centennials and northern
Wasatch, this translates to a greater than 50% chance of seeing 6"
of accumulating snow or more. Initially accumulating snow should be
contained to the higher elevations with snow levels above 5k feet
through the bulk of Thursday and then snow levels waiver going
forward. Precipitation chances and types become quite a bit more
complicated Friday and into the weekend as the parent low digs
southward along the CA coastline and cuts off. This would keep our
area on the warmer southerly flow side of the low, keeping moderated
surface temperatures and snow levels elevated above valley floors.
Still a lot of details to work out during this timeframe, but the
forecast is for continued wet conditions until that upper-level low
can become dislodged perhaps into early next week.
TAX


&&

.AVIATION...
The surface low pressure center has moved well east of the area over
Wyoming at this early hour. This is gradually shifting winds to
northwesterly, bringing residual low-level moisture back into the
upper Snake Highlands impacting those northeast ports of DIJ and
IDA. MVFR stratus and scattered showers will continue to impact
these areas, perhaps expanding southward towards Blackfoot and
Pocatello later today as a quasi convergence band. Can`t completely
rule out the potential for embedded thunder and brief gusty winds in
the activity today as there should be a convective element with
colder air aloft. Expecting shower activity to gradually dissipate
in the overnight hours into Monday. Lingering moisture should then
fuel diurnally-driven showers Monday and Tuesday afternoon evening,
but widespread restrictions don`t appear to be a significant threat
at this time.
TAX

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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