Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
472 FXUS65 KPIH 300326 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 926 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024 .UPDATE... Ended the wind advisory early as winds have begun to weaken already. Trends still look favorable for subfreezing temperatures tonight. No other changes made to the forecast. 13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 215 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024/ SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday Winds have picked up across the region as a shortwave moves to the north of the area. The Wind Advisory will continue into the evening hours tonight before winds drop below advisory levels around midnight. It will remain breezy throughout the overnight however and into Tuesday and the Arco Desert will flirt with advisory level winds again on Tuesday. Radar returns this afternoon show showers developing primarily in the southern and eastern highlands and to a lesser extent, the central mountains. These areas will remain under the gun for continued precipitation until later this evening and precip will mostly shut off after the FROPA. Could see some isolated thunderstorms as well with this activity. As the front moves through, temperatures will drop quickly and any remaining precip will likely be in the form of snow. Speaking of dropping temperatures, a Freeze Warning has been issued for the "growing regions" across eastern Idaho. Although it`s a few days before our official start of Frost/Freeze products, given the warmer temps the past few weeks and ongoing agricultural interests across the area already, felt it prudent to issue a freeze warning accordingly. Most of the region should drop below freezing tonight. Another shortwave will impact the region tomorrow bringing another round of gusty winds and some precip, again focused across the higher terrain. Temps will be cooler tomorrow with 40s and 50s in place across the region. McKaughan LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday Expect active weather to continue throughout the period. Both the GFS and ECMWF models show an upper level low over western Montana with a boundary moving through our area on Wednesday brining a rain/snow mix (snow levels around 4500ft), colder temperatures, and breezy/windy conditions. Will likely need a freeze warning on Wednesday morning for our valley locations that we put out freeze warnings for. Both models then show weak ridging over our area on Thursday morning. There will be a potential for morning fog. Late Thursday into Friday both the GFS and ECMWF models show an upper level low over our area bringing widespread light valley precipitation and light to moderate mountain precipitation with snow levels around 5000 to 5500 feet. Past Friday the GFS and ECMWF models as well as model clusters continue to diverge. Though both the GFS and ECMWF models show high pressure over our area on Saturday, the GFS model continues the high pressure with a deep upper level low skirting well south of our area. In contrast, the ECMWF model shows the high pressure weakening quickly by Saturday afternoon and then brings an upper level low over our area late Saturday into Sunday. Expect temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal Wednesday through Friday before becoming near normal over the weekend. TW AVIATION... A fast moving shortwave trough will move through this afternoon through the evening. Winds have already picked up for all TAF sites. Winds will pick up to sustained speeds of 25-30kts for KBYI/KPIH/KIDA and KDIJ. KSUN wont completely escape, with winds sustained around 20kts this afternoon. Expect vicinity showers for all sites. Our northern areas (KIDA and KDIJ) will have the best chances of showers on station, especially KDIJ. Expect MVFR conditions with any showers on station. Our northern areas, mainly KDIJ, have the best chance of vicinity thunderstorms as well this afternoon. Both winds and precipitation drop off after sunset today. Another fast moving shortwave trough will move through Tuesday. Though winds will back off some overnight, winds will quickly pick back up by mid to late tomorrow morning for most TAF sites. TW && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM MDT Tuesday for IDZ051>055. && $$