Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
000
FXUS65 KPIH 140815
AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
215 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024
.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday Night.
Early morning satellite imagery shows a H5 low now to our south
in the SRN Great Basin as a H5 ridge in the ERN Pacific continues
to move onshore into the NRN Rockies. With the placement of this
low now to our south, winds will be predominantly out of the N/NE
with a focus on stronger downslope winds along the Montana Divide
in Clark County, ERN drainages of the CNTRL Mountains onto the
Arco/Mud Lake Desert, and west of the Bear River Range into the
Cache Valley. Wind gusts in these areas will peak between 30-45
mph with locally stronger gusts at times. Those strongest gusts
will subside further north tonight and further south by Friday
afternoon as the increasing influence of high pressure overhead
builds in to round out the week.
Outside of breezy winds for some areas, the overall weather
pattern will remain quiet and dry with patchy areas of dense fog
this morning. Highs today will be in the 30s/40s before returning
to more seasonable levels on Friday reaching the 40s/50s. Even
warmer weather is then expected this weekend into early next week.
MacKay
.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday.
Blocking high pressure remains in place for the weekend through
the beginning of the work week. Temperatures climb above normal,
and the deterministic NBM may be slightly too low given the
strength of the high and the current probabilistic spread. Will
hold for now, and tweak upwards if necessary in coming days. There
is still a concern for early spring flooding given the warm
temperatures, but overnight lows near or just below freezing may
help mitigate the situation. Models and ensemble clusters erode
the blocking high Tuesday, leaving ridge axis extended through the
Great Basin. There is now quite a bit of disagreement heading
into Wednesday and Thursday regarding progression of shallow
progressive trough into the PacNW. Just over half of the ensemble
members support maintaining the ridge. Ensemble and cluster means
as well as the deterministic NBM still try to bring a system
through, but have trended warmer with rain or a bit of a mix in
lower elevations mainly at night. DMH
&&
.AVIATION...For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday.
Upper low has sagged south into Utah, leaving cool northerly flow
in place over East Idaho. Gusty winds through the northern
portions of the Snake Plain expected to develop over KPIH/KIDA
through the day, 10-15kts sustained. In the meantime, low
stratus/patchy fog will be possible for KDIJ and KIDA, with lower
potential at KPIH. Expect improvement to VFR all sites by
afternoon. Winds decrease during the evening. DMH
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$