Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 162031

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
231 PM MDT Wed May 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday.
An upper level trof will progress east through Idaho the next
couple of days and expect showers and thunderstorms every day in
the short term period. The wettest period and most widespread
precipiation days should be Thursday night through Friday night.
Precipiation amounts will be highest through that period.
Temperatures will generally be near seasonal normal for mid May
with high temperatures and above normal for lows with expected
clouds in the moist pattern. Not expecting strong winds other than
thunderstorm outflow through Saturday.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Wednesday.
An unsettled weather pattern will continue next week across SE Idaho
as yet another low pressure system slowly moves onshore across
California and into our region, similar to what we have been dealing
with for the past week now. There are some differences between the
GFS and ECMWF on the exact track of the low, as well as some run-to-
run inconsistencies, which ultimately will affect best placement and
coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity. In general, however,
we will carry scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
each day, maximized during the afternoon and evening hours
coincident with peak heating and instability. Many areas may be dry
during the overnight hours each night, but this far out we cannot
yet completely guarantee dry weather for any given period. High
temperatures look to largely remain in the 70s throughout the
week (60s at higher elevations). - KSmith/GK


.AVIATION...Will have showers and thunderstorms near or at all TAF
sites this afternoon and evening and through Saturday. Should
remain VFR except under heavy showers and only strong winds will
come from thunderstorm outflow.


.HYDROLOGY...River and stream levels remain steady or are slowly
dropping. Even with the ebb and flow of temperatures over the
coming days, snowmelt will continue across eastern Idaho. Without
widespread heavy rainfall, any contribution from that for runoff
will likely be more localized. That said, it certainly could add
to levels in any particular basin. At the moment, the only flood-
related headline remaining is for folks along the Big Wood in the
Hailey and Gimlet areas. Even with dropping levels, don`t let your
guard down as waterways will be moving fast, high and cold. Keyes



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