Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
000
FXUS65 KPIH 172033
AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
233 PM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
High pressure, centered just west of our CWA, will remain in full
control over the next several days, supporting high confidence in
dry, mostly sunny/clear, low-impact wx with light winds and high
temps running 5-10 degrees above normal for mid-March. A slight
warming trend will continue each day. For high temps...didn`t quite
go with a full blend with the NBM 50th percentile with this
afternoon`s forecast package, but did adjust temps up each day above
the deterministic NBM based on trends and verification the last two
days. If anything about the forecast is a little off/overperforms,
it will be temps which could yet nudge a couple degrees warmer than
currently forecast. 01
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...
High pressure will dominate the pattern early next week with
daytime highs peaking for the week around 10 degrees above normal
on Tuesday and Wednesday. Have continued to adjust high
temperatures a bit warmer than the National Blend deterministic on
these two days based on trends. The Snake Plain, eastern Magic
Valley, and valleys further south will reach into the 60s while
the mountains and highlands will range 40s and 50s. The center of
high pressure over the western U.S. will begin to weaken Tuesday
as a low descends into the Pacific Northwest. Models are now
maintaining the influence of the ridge a bit longer, with zonal
flow aloft developing on Thursday due to the influence of a
shortwave passing to our north. The National Blend is carrying
PoPs of generally 35% and lower Wednesday afternoon and Thursday
across the central mountains and E/SE Highlands with more
widespread coverage Friday through the weekend when the trough
moves inland. 500 mb ensemble clusters continue to indicate
variation amongst ensembles regarding the progression of the
trough during this timeframe with EPS relatively faster in
bringing the trough axis onshore. While it is too early to get
into precipitation amounts, much of the region will observe rain
as temperatures look to remain well above freezing across most of
the CWA through Saturday. Cropp
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions forecast through the period. Winds will remain
light and variable at times. Few to scattered high clouds will
filter into eastern Idaho tonight and clear Monday morning. Cropp
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$