Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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829 FXUS63 KEAX 102316 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 616 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms arrive Sunday, with precipitation persisting into Tuesday. Severe storms are not anticipated at this time. - Late next week, another round of thunderstorms Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Shallow mid-level ridging remains in place across the Central Plains this afternoon, with broad surface ridging continuing to slide south and southeast across the region. WV imagery this afternoon reveals the short wave trough dropping southeast toward Lake Superior, with an outstretched surface front pushing toward southern MN/northern IA. Later tonight, short range solutions continue to hint at some shower chances in far northeastern Missouri as the front swings across the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. Saturday will be relatively quiet, with highs in the mid to upper 70s, a few degrees above normal. Through the evening, with the short wave ridge axis sliding east over the region, a deepening, positively tilted trough will churn over the Rockies, with broad forcing for ascent outstretched ahead. Precipitation chances will increase from the west through daybreak, continuing to spread east through Sunday. Weak instability and shear profiles will result in scattered rumbles of thunder, especially through the afternoon and evening, but no severe weather is anticipated at this time. Precipitation chances are expected to continue into and through Monday as the H500 short wave trough slows and pivots over eastern Kansas. Mid to long range solutions finally suggest an exit of the system to the east through midday Tuesday as the short wave finally gets some assistance from the more prominent trough over eastern Canada. Rainfall totals from Sunday through Tuesday morning will range between 1.00 to 1.50 inches. A few locally higher amounts, closer to 2.00 inches cannot be ruled out. Brief ridging will persist behind the early week system across the region through Wednesday. Hot on its heels will be another digging H500 trough off the western High Plains into Thursday. This system will bring another chance for thunderstorms to the area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Winds will be out of northwest between 5-10 knots during the afternoon on Friday. This northwesterly flow is expected to ease around sunset will remain relaxed throughout the morning hours on Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR through the period. Might keep a pesky scattered cloud deck centered at 700mb (or roughly around 8-10kft) through the duration of the TAF. Should see clouds thin out overnight, with another increase Saturday afternoon. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kurtz AVIATION...Blair