Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 201716
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1216 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 258 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2018

Mid- to high-level clouds will progressively build in from the
west today, limiting some heating during the afternoon but likely
still allowing temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 60s.
Southeast winds will bring a slight increase in surface dewpoints
but will not be enough to keep RH from bottoming out around 30
percent this afternoon, which could slightly elevate fire danger
as winds increase to a sustained 10-15 mph.

High-res models are beginning to indicated a wider expanse of
light rain showers Saturday morning than many of the coarser
models, despite a very significant dry layer between 800-700 hPa
prior to onset. Dry air looks like it will still be a limiting
factor, and even if the atmosphere can gradually saturate, rain
amounts will be very light and delayed from when high-res models
indicate rain could begin. Rain chances do still increase a bit
throughout the day and into Saturday night as the upper low moves
over the region, but as the low center drops southward and upper-
level forcing weakens, any associated precipitation will also
shift south of the region. The highest potential for any (albeit
light) rainfall accumulations still looks to remain south and west
of the forecast area.

Weak ridging will build in behind the weakening upper low early
next week, allowing Monday and Tuesday temperatures to rise to
near 70 degrees. A cold frontal passage is still expected either
late Tuesday or early Wednesday and could knock temperatures down
a few notches, but is not expected to pack a significant punch in
either precipitation or temperatures following behind.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2018

Breezy southeast winds will persist through the first six hours
before relaxing slightly and shifting more easterly through the
this evening and overnight. VFR conditions will prevail through
most of the period before ceilings begin to lower to MVFR for the
last portion of the period.

Kurtz

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Kurtz



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