695
FXUS64 KSHV 110531
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1231 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

 - The trend of less diurnally driven convection will continue
   today.

 - Rain chances increase slightly for the upcoming weekend but
   not by much.

 - Near triple digit temperatures will be possible through much of
   next week and with critical daytime heat indices, Heat
   Advisories will likely become necessary.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Our region saw much less diurnally driven convection on Thursday
and this was due in part to less PWAT or available moisture and
less upper forcing from a very weak shear axis ovhd. These have
been our driving ingredients to seeing more storm coverage over
the last several days and taking a look at these parameters again,
we should see even less coverage today. Highest PWATS for this
afternoon will again be across our far southern and eastern zones
so this will limit pop coverage to low end chance variety across
these areas.

For Saturday into Sunday, did not deviate from NBM which is
painting slightly higher rain chances, but not by much, due in
part to a weak shortwave moving out of the Southern Plains and
into the Middle Red River Valley and an uptick in available
moisture or PWAT across our northwest most zones and perhaps a
little more in the way of an active seabreeze from the south due
to the proximity of upper ridging located across FL.

Both today and through the upcoming weekend, persistence is the
best rule of thumb when it comes to temperatures. This is in
agreement with NBM temps with daytime highs mostly in the middle
90s today, maybe a degree or two cooler across our far northern
and southern zones this weekend due to increased rain chances.
While some isolated locations across our forecast area will see
daytime heat indices near or exceed 105 degrees, these values are
not widespread enough to warrant necessary Heat Advisory headlines
through at least Sunday but all bets are off for the upcoming
work week.

The above mentioned upper ridge appears to expand and/or
retrograde westward into the Lower Miss Valley/Tenn Valley Monday
through Wednesday of next week. Subsidence in association with
this feature should result in ambient max temperatures approaching
triple digits if not meeting or exceeding triple digits in some
locations. This combined with elevated dewpoints will result in
daytime heat indices meeting or exceeding 105 degrees and
therefore, Heat Advisories will likely become necessary. Will
watch the northeast Gulf of Mexico by the end of the forecast
period for perhaps some relief from the heat in the form of
increased rain chances, at least across our southeast half in the
Thursday/Friday timeframe but most of the remainder of our region
should remain dry Tuesday through the end of the forecast period.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

For the 11/06Z TAFs, VFR conditions look to prevail overnight,
with just a few high clouds and otherwise mostly clear skies.
Brief reductions to MVFR/IFR CIGs will be possible at east Texas
terminals near daybreak, rebounding to VFR into the midmorning.
Otherwise, looking for widespread Cu field development by late
morning, settling at 5000 ft during the afternoon. Scattered
afternoon storms may be possible for our eastern terminals, but
confidence is not yet high enough to carry in prevailing
conditions. Southwest winds will hold at 3-6 kts overnight,
picking up to sustained speeds of 5 to 15 kts during the
afternoon, with gusts of up to 20 kts possible, particularly north
and west.

/26/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Spotter activation will not be necessary today through tonight.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  76  95  77 /  20  10  30  10
MLU  95  74  96  75 /  30  20  30  10
DEQ  93  72  92  71 /   0   0  30  30
TXK  97  75  97  75 /  10   0  20  20
ELD  94  73  95  73 /  20  10  20  10
TYR  94  75  94  74 /  10   0  40  10
GGG  95  74  94  74 /  20   0  40  10
LFK  94  73  94  74 /  30  20  70  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26