Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 170722
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
222 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Surface high pressure across the northeast Gulf of Mexico combined
with a surface low across the Texas Panhandle will allow for an
enhanced pressure gradient that will support persistent southerly
flow and continued moisture advection across the region today.
Near zonal flow aloft will allow for near neutral stability
with a few showers possible across northeast Louisiana this
afternoon along a weak surface boundary. Temperatures today are
forecast to climb into the low to mid 80s.

Pattern to remain nearly unchanged overnight. Overcast conditions
to prevail areawide with temperatures forecast to fall to around
70 degrees.

A 1020MB surface high to surge south across the Plains on Thursday
forcing the previously mentioned surface low across the Texas
Panhandle to eject northeast leaving a cold front in its wake
along the leading edge of the approaching surface high. Front to
move into the Red River Valley of north Texas on Thursday
afternoon. Diurnal heating, combined with dewpoint values in the
upper 60s, will aid in destabilizing the environment along and
ahead of the front with strong to severe thunderstorms possible
along and north of I-30 across northeast Texas, southwest Arkansas
and southeast Oklahoma. Damaging winds and hail will be the main
threats. /05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Cold front is forecast to stall latitudinally across the ArkLaTex
from Friday through Sunday as upper-level flow becomes parallel to
the front in the wake of the departing vertically stacked mid-
level cyclone that will shift northeast into Canada. Instability
associated with the lingering front will be marginal on Friday
into Saturday. However, a shortwave trough will shift east across
central and south Texas allowing for widespread rain across the
ArkLaTex from Saturday into Sunday with conditions improving
through early next week as upper-level flow becomes northwest.

With a seasonably cool surface high prevailing building behind the
cold front and persisting across the region through most of the
long-term period, chilly overnight lows can be expected through
the weekend. By Monday morning, when the surface high becomes
centered over the ArkLaTex, overnight lows will average in the
low to mid 40s. Otherwise, high temperatures in the lower to mid
60s expected on Sunday. As the surface high shifts east, expect a
gradual warming trend through midweek. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

For the 17/06Z TAF update, MVFR cigs/VCSH will continue to linger
across the airspace as a slow-moving frontal boundary lingers
through the period, maintaining southerly surface winds as a
result. /16/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  71  86  68 /  10  10  30  30
MLU  83  69  83  66 /  10  10  30  20
DEQ  84  66  83  58 /   0  10  30  50
TXK  85  69  84  64 /   0  10  30  50
ELD  84  66  83  63 /  10  10  40  40
TYR  85  70  84  65 /   0  10  30  30
GGG  85  70  84  66 /   0  10  30  30
LFK  85  70  86  67 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...16


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