Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 210851
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
351 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Sunday Night/

The remnants of Imelda have finally exited the region. Upper
level ridging will build into the SE CONUS today. Our region will
be on the western fringe of the ridge, which may allow a few
isolated showers and storms to move north from the coast as
southerly flow will continue to bring some low level moisture to
region. Overall, a much hotter and drier day expected with only
slight rain chances confined to portions of East Texas, NW
Louisiana, and west-central Louisiana.

The upper ridge will hold firm across the SE CONUS on Sunday with
our region remaining on the western fringe. Deep southerly flow
will once again allow for isolated convection to develop with the
aid of daytime heating. Only a slight chance expected, however, a
greater coverage of precipitation can be expected with convection
possible across the entire western half of the region. Most of
this convection will diminish by sunset. By Sunday evening, an
upper trough and associated cold front in the Plains will
continue to move towards the region. The ridge will slow the
southeastward movement of the trough/cold front, basically
stalling it out north of the Interstate 30 corridor across SE
Oklahoma and adjacent SW Arkansas. Scattered convection near the
front and associated upper trough axis will possibly move into the
aforementioned areas Sunday evening persisting through early
Monday morning.

With the influence of the upper ridge across the region, afternoon
temperatures will rebound into the upper 80s and lower 90s across
the region on Saturday and Sunday. Dew points will remain in the
lower 70s, resulting in humid conditions and Heat Index values in
the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. /20/

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday/

To start the new work week, upper ridging will be centered across
the Southern Conus with the ridge axis extending as far west and the
Tx Hill Country. A vigorous upper level trough will be located
across the Great Lakes with this trough quickly moving into New
England by Tue. There will be a weak frontal boundary associated
with this upper trough that will try to backdoor its way into the
Ouachitas of Arkansas late Monday Night into Tue but the progs are a
little more bullish in this boundary moving into our northern tier
during this timeframe. Regardless, progs are in better agreement
with chance pops across our northern third Mon through Monday Night
with a little more southward push across the I-20 Corridor during
the day Tuesday before we lose any sort of frontal forcing by
midweek.

By Wed, the ridge will get shunted into the Gulf with a very weak
trough axis oriented from Deep S Tx into the Lower Miss Valley. Kept
pops out of the forecast Wed/Wed Night timeframe as moisture does
not appear to be sufficient to generate anything but very isolated
diurnally driven convection in the vicinity of the weak trough axis.
Deep layer moisture does appear sufficient enough to generate widely
scattered convection in association with the trough axis however for
Thu across our southwest 2/3rds and across our our western third for
Friday into the weekend as upper ridging builds back northward
across the SE Conus and deep troughing takes shape across the W
Conus resulting in southwest flow aloft across our region. This
should allow for good northward transport of Gulf of Mexico moisture
for next weekend unless the ridge out east begins to retrograde back
to the west which is what the ECMWF has been hinting at the last
couple runs. This would result in very hot temperatures by the end
of next week into the upcoming weekend with afternoon temperatures
running some 5 to 10 degrees above normal for late September.

13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1125 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions areawide to become MVFR/IFR across mainly east
Texas terminals around daybreak. Conditions to improve to VFR
after 21/15Z. Otherwise, south to southeast winds 4 to 8 knots
tonight to increase to 10 to 15 knots and gusty on Saturday. Winds
to again diminish to around 5 to 10 knots after 22/00Z. /05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
MLU  91  69  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  88  70  88  69 /  10  10  20  20
TXK  88  72  89  71 /  10   0  20  10
ELD  91  70  91  69 /  10   0  10  10
TYR  89  71  91  73 /  10   0  20  10
GGG  90  71  90  72 /  10   0  20  10
LFK  88  72  90  71 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

20/13


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