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000
FXUS64 KSHV 071847
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
147 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

Some subtle changes in the upper level pattern should result in a
slight uptick in precipitation coverage once again during the short
term.

Current precipitation pattern with scattered thunderstorms across
portions of the Piney Woods of NE TX and a conglomeration of showers
and isolated thunderstorms across Northeast Louisiana are anchored
within pockets of higher PWATs, interacting with differential
heating and mid level forcing in the vicinity of a 700mb Theta-e
ridge axis. This convection will continue to bubble up through this
evening before dissipating. Pulse type storms through this evening
could produce a strong wind gust and/or very small hail. As has been
the case through the last several nights, an isolated storm or two
may continue, and/or develop overnight towards sunrise but unless
the evening convection carries on long enough such that pops need to
be extended beyond midnight, I will end pops from midnight through
sunrise Thu Morning. Did undercut NBM temps slightly across our
north and northeast zones where some slightly drier air exists per
the latest mesoanalysis but overnight temperatures should be similar
to those experienced last night or a degree or two warmer.

For Thursday, expect a nearly carbon copy of today with diurnally
induced, pulse type convection. The more concentrated areas that
convection will focus on should be across our north and northeast
half, as well as our far southern third. The expansive upper level
trough over New England on Thu will begin to retrograde, ever so
slightly to the west. As it does, there are some indications that an
enhanced area of upper forcing could rotate around the trough along
its southwest flank and spark nocturnal convection that might impact
our far northern and northeast zones Thu Night. Have thus kept
slight chance and chance pops going Thu Night on account of this
setup. This convection could become further enhanced along a
backdooring cold front late Thu Night that will try to push its way
into our far northeast zones but it is doubtful the boundary will
make it into our area before stalling.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

By Friday morning, large scale ascent will spread over the mountain
west helping to generate weak sfc cyclogenesis across the upper
Midwest. Tethered to that will be a frontal boundary along the
leading edge of a building sfc ridge out of Canada. At the same
time, a stalled out frontal boundary from a previous backdoor front
will be draped across, or at least near, the Four State Region, and
meander nearby through the day, aiding Friday iso-scattered
afternoon PoPs. By Saturday, the pattern aloft will slowly
transition from it`s previously stagnate form, as the ridge begins
to break down and brief zonal flow evolves overhead. Only contrast
to this will be the subtle perturbations within the flow which will
support evening convection as a weak shortwave develops and works
across the Plains. With this in mind, the Storm Prediction Center
has already highlighted a region for possible severe storms across
our extreme western zones in E/TX. For now, damaging winds and hail
look to be the primary concerns.

By Sunday, the aforementioned stalled boundary will begin to lift NE
as the previously mentioned sfc low and the connected frontal
boundary work into the Ohio River Valley, with the SW extent of the
boundary slowly entering the ArkLaTex by Sunday afternoon. Forward
progression of the boundary and the evolution of the upper-level low
to develop across the Great Lakes has varied from run to run, so
pinpointing coverage of Sunday PoPs has been hit or miss outside of
the morning PoPs associated with the departing shortwave. Weak
ridging to the west and a drier column SW of the upper-level low may
influence a drier evening for most ahead of the arrival of frontal
based forcing helping to generate early morning Monday PoPs across
the northern/northeast zones. Confidence remains mixed this far into
the period as guidance does vary on just how much forcing is truly
left of the boundary and the timing of the passing front. It is
worth mentioning that PoP solutions in the long range guidance start
to appear thin given the influence of the passing ridge axis from
the west and blocking developing across the NW Gulf, extending as
far north as the SHV FA and as far west as Baja, potentially
shutting off the afternoon rain chances towards the end of the
period. This still remains too early to tell, but worth watching
closely.

Temperatures through the period expected to remain the same as they
have been in previous days with highs in the low 90s, overnight lows
in the 60s and 70s. Only possible change to this would not be for
the better, unless one were to be a fan of the heat, if the guidance
projected long range dome setup were to evolve. If allowed to dry
out across the region, highs by the end of the long term could be
pushing mid 90s, dare even say some upper 90s.

RK

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

VFR conditions currently prevailing and those conditions are
expected to continue outside of convection late this afternoon
through the late evening hours. Cannot rule out some patchy MVFR
VSBYS in a few locations an hour or two either side of sunrise in
the morning but this will be short lived with VFR conditions
returning once again through the end of the TAF period.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  94  71  93 /  30  20  20  20
MLU  69  94  69  93 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  65  94  66  90 /  30  30  30  30
TXK  68  95  68  93 /  30  30  30  20
ELD  66  93  65  90 /  20  30  30  20
TYR  69  93  70  93 /  30  20  20  20
GGG  68  92  69  93 /  30  20  20  20
LFK  68  92  69  94 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...13