Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 240236

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
936 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Current wind speeds across the region have somewhat relaxed during
the early evening hours. However, latest GFS LAMP model guidance
suggests that wind speeds will again increase to around 15 to 20
mph across many locations inside the ongoing Lake Wind Advisory
through the overnight hours. Thus went ahead and extended Lake
Wind Advisory through 7 AM. Otherwise, current forecast is on
track. /05/


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 705 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018/

Solid deck of low vfr to high mvfr clouds have spread across most
of ne TX, se OK, and extreme western AR. These cigs have not quite
reached ktxk, kshv, or klfk as of yet. Expect cigs to lower from
the west gradually tonight with prevailing mvfr cigs by daybreak
thru Sat mrng, with mostly low vfr cigs again by midday, and a few
breaks in cigs later in the aftn. S-sw winds thru period, gusts
over 25 kts this eve across ne TX, and only a slight lowering of
wind speeds later tonight. Winds mainly 10 to 15 kts durg the day

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 504 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018/

This afternoon a tight pressure gradient between a large surface
low pressure system over the Rockies and Southern Plains and
surface high pressure over the Eastern U.S. continued to produce
strong and gusty Southerly winds of 15-20 MPH with higher gusts up
to 30-35 MPH across much of East and Northeast Texas, Southeast
Oklahoma and the immediate adjacent sections of Southwest Arkansas
and Northwest Louisiana. Have extended the Lake Wind Advisory
until 1 AM CDT due to the expected gradient to remain across the
area. The winds may continue elevated after 1 AM for parts of
East and Northeast Texas, but should be below the Lake Wind
Advisory criteria. The pattern aloft shows an amplified upper
ridge from the Western Gulf of Mexico into the Central sections of
the country and into Canada with a trough over the Eastern
Atlantic and a closed upper low over the Pacific Northwest with
trough down the West Coast. A short wave trough of low pressure
was moving out of the Rockies and moving into the Ridge aloft.
From the surface low over the Plains a dry line will trail
Southwest off of a cold front reaching from the Surface low
over South Oklahoma and into the Pan Handle of Texas late tonight
with a few showers expected to form ahead of the features. By mid
day Saturday the surface low will be moving across the Middle
Mississippi Valley with the cold front overtaking the dry line and
providing a small chance of showers for our more Northern zones
over Southeast Oklahoma and South Arkansas. The cold front will be
moving into Northeast Texas and near the Louisiana/Arkansas
border late Saturday night providing the area with a slight chance
of showers to near the Interstate 2o corridor and North. The
upper short wave will be shifting to the East away from the region
and the boundary will become nearly stationary during Sunday and
lift back to the Northeast as a warm front and have introduced
mention of isolated thunderstorms. Rain chances will continue to
increase as the upper ridge of high pressure leans to the East
along the East Coast and down into the Northeast Gulf of Mexico.
To the West an upper level trough of low pressure will start to
close off near the Four Corners Region resulting in a slow
progression of the upper pattern resulting in a Southwest flow
into the forecast area with a series of disturbances to go along
with a surface high pressure anchored over the Eastern U.S.
providing additional low level gulf moisture supply. This pattern
will set the stage for our Tuesday through Thursday wet pattern
with locally heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding.
flooding, and river flooding. The water runoff from the expected
heavy rainfall will affect the forecast area through the end of
March and into the first week of April. The exact axis of heavy
rain is uncertain at this time, but many locations will receive
three to four inches with some higher amounts of five to six
inches. These values are preliminary and can change as the
pattern sets up. There will be a chance of storms becoming severe
with the approach and passage of cold fronts. The upper low will
become an open wave near mid week as it ejects East across Texas
and Oklahoma sending a cold front into the Four State Region on
Thursday and may bring an end to the rainfall by Thursday night. A
weak short wave may provide a small chance of rain in the broad
upper trough over the Conus as it passes on Friday. Otherwise rain
chances will end and last a dry pattern through the weekend. /06/


SHV  63  81  63  78 /  10  10  20  20
MLU  61  82  62  76 /  10  10  20  20
DEQ  58  79  57  68 /  20  20  20  40
TXK  61  78  59  72 /  20  10  20  30
ELD  60  77  58  72 /  10  20  20  20
TYR  65  81  63  80 /  10  10  20  20
GGG  64  81  62  79 /  10  10  20  20
LFK  63  84  64  84 /  10  10  10  20


AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-059-

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ001-002-010.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-



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