Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 031944
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
244 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Saturday Night/

The latest RAP mid-level analysis indicates the area in zonal
flow with weak vort energy having pushed east of the area. The
main forcing is focused along and ahead of a cold front that
extends from Fayetteville, Arkansas southwestward across McCurtain
County, Oklahoma to Quitman, Texas. Showers and a few stray
thunderstorms are pushing across northeast Texas and southwestern
Arkansas just ahead of the front with a few isolated showers in
its wake. Aside from shower activity, the front is most well-
defined by a wind-shift and 10-15 degrees thermal gradient. More
vigorous convection is developing well southwest of the area in
south-central Texas.

As the front slowly slides southeastward into East Texas and Deep
East Texas this evening, NAM 3km/HRRR support only a few showers
and strong thunderstorms may develop along the front. Showers and
storms will decrease in coverage and intensity overnight as the
cold front stalls. Thus, rain chances are greatest in East Texas
and southwestern Arkansas, decreasing into Louisiana.

On Saturday, the front will be slow to edge southeastward across
the area and will be the focus area for showers and isolated
thunderstorms tomorrow as a few ripples in the mid-level flow
indicative of weak wave energy providing forcing. Showers will
linger overnight on Saturday night, but will decrease in coverage.

For temperatures, lows tonight will range from lower to mid 40s
west of the front in northeast texas and southeastern Arkansas to
in the upper 50s to lower 60s ahead of the front in central
Louisiana and the ArkLaMiss. As the front stalls and straddles
our region, the thermal gradient will be very evident tomorrow
with highs ranging from the lower to mid 50s from Tyler, TX to
Idabel, OK to the lower to mid 70s for locations like
Natchitoches, Jena, and Monroe in Louisiana. The gradient will be
less evident for lows on Saturday night, ranging from the mid 50s
to lower 60s from west to east respectively across the area.
/04-Woodrum/

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday Night/

Nearly flat upper ridge axis to be directly ovhd Sunday, but a
lingering sfc boundary and a continuous supply of Pacific moisture
in swly flow to our w will remain in place. A series of weak
disturbances will ride over the top of the upper ridge anchored over
the Gulf of Mexico, keeping mainly isentropic lift and convection in
play through the first half of the work week. With no change in
airmass, temps will continue to gradually warm through this
timeframe as well.

A cold front associated with a disturbance passing well to our n
will bring some drier air and even some weakly nwly flow aloft. This
will allow our temps to soar into the mid 80s to near 90. Our break
from the rain won`t last, however, as another storm system
approaches from the w late Wednesday into Thursday. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1255 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020/

AVIATION...

A cold front will slide southeastward toward Texarkana, Tyler, and
Longview into the evening, with showers and thunderstorms
developing and pushing across the terminals. Most thunderstorms
will diminish before they reach Monroe later tonight. VFR ceilings
will drop to MVFR this evening across the area and to IFR
overnight. Visibilites may briefly drop to IFR in thunderstorms
with mostly MVFR with a few 20-30kt gusts in thunderstorms.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will mostly diminish overnight,
but remain a possibility. IFR ceilings tomorrow morning will
linger through much of the day on Saturday. /04-Woodrum/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  58  67  58  77 /  50  50  30  30
MLU  59  72  60  79 /  20  50  30  20
DEQ  48  57  54  73 /  50  40  30  40
TXK  55  64  57  73 /  40  50  30  30
ELD  58  69  57  76 /  30  50  30  30
TYR  43  51  51  74 /  50  40  30  40
GGG  51  60  56  75 /  50  40  30  30
LFK  57  67  58  77 /  70  70  60  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

04/21



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