308
FXUS64 KSHV 270316
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1016 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Scattered convection will remain possible through this evening
and overnight as deep SW flow just above the sfc is maintained.
Expect an increase in coverage during the day on Saturday with
the influence of added heating through the afternoon. The current
forecast reflects this thinking so no changes are needed at this
time as the previous Flood Watch for some of our SW zones having
expired earlier this evening.

/19/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Upper-level trough that has brought copious amounts of rainfall to
the region over the past several days will retrograde northwest
tonight. This jog to the northwest will bring little improvement
to the pattern with another surge of moisture possibly streaming
northeast across the region again late tonight into Saturday.
Based on the latest hires guidance, most of the heavier
precipitation that would warrant a Flood Watch will remain closer
to the coast. Therefore, there is no plan to expand the ongoing
Flood Watch at this time. However, with ongoing flood warnings
still in place across portions of Deep East Texas and adjacent
parishes in north Louisiana for the next couple of hours, will
hold off on ending the watch early.

High temperatures on Saturday will remain seasonably cool in the
lower to middle 80s due to increased rainfall and cloud-cover.

A chaotic atmosphere to persist into Saturday night with lingering
convection slowly waning and multi-level cloud decks persisting
areawide. Overnight lows forecast to average in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. /05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Upper-level trough to eject northeast at the start of the long-
term period allowing for an upper-ridge to build east across the
region. The upper-ridge will remain in place through the end of
next week allowing for drier conditions areawide. Subsidence
associated with the ridge will drive afternoon high temperatures
into the mid 90s by Thursday. Accordingly, with increased low-
level moisture in place, afternoon heat index values could reach
advisory criteria across parts of the region as early as Monday.
Rain chances will become limited and confined to mainly the
hottest part of the day in the afternoon. Otherwise, overnight low
temperatures in the low to mid 70s expected each night. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, little change over the next day as the
pattern continues with the shear axis overhead. VFR/MVFr now will
see the IFR setting back in later this evening and early morning.
Another surge of moisture will bring showers and isold TS with
daybreak. Models showing things start to loosen up earlier tmrw
with VFR cigs during the aftn as the rain areas push out of the
region. Coverage will further diminish for Sunday with one last
push perhaps before the hot&dry conditions resume next week. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  85  74  88 /  50  60  40  60
MLU  71  86  73  87 /  50  60  40  60
DEQ  69  84  69  88 /  30  50  20  30
TXK  72  86  72  90 /  30  50  30  50
ELD  69  83  70  87 /  50  60  30  50
TYR  72  85  73  89 /  30  50  20  40
GGG  71  84  72  88 /  40  50  30  50
LFK  71  82  72  86 /  50  70  30  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...24