Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 242001
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
301 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday Night/

Low stratus has settled into the region today in wake of
yesterday`s frontal passage, which has kept afternoon temperatures
well below normal today. Record low maximum temperatures will be
threaten today, as most of the region has remained in the mid to
upper 50s. Some of this cloud cover is starting to erode across
Southeast Texas up into Deep East Texas and short-term guidance
suggest this trend will continue through the afternoon, which may
allow some additional warming to take place before sunset.
However, models indicate low clouds will redevelop across the
region overnight into the first half of Sunday. There is model
difference on what happens with cloud cover tomorrow, which will
play a huge factor in temperatures. The NAM continues to suggest
most of tomorrow will play out like today, with low stratus parked
over the region and temperatures in the upper 50s. But the NAM is
the outlier of the models, although the NAM usually handles
shallow airmasses pretty well. Current thinking is that cloud
cover will hang around the region up to lunch time. At this time,
decided lean with the National Blend for forecast tomorrow, as
it`s not as not as bullish with warming temps up tomorrow but not
as cool bias as the NAM.

Dry conditions are expected to continue on Sunday, but our next
weather maker will be headed towards the region. A potent upper
trough will dig southward through the Great Basin region and
Rockies into the Four Corners region of the CONUS by Sunday
evening/Monday morning. At the same time, southerly winds and good
warm air advection will return to region as sfc high pressure
departs to the east. This should help erode the cloud cover by
Sunday afternoon and allow temps to warm into the 60s and low to
mid 70s across our southern zones. Rain chances will return to
areas northwest of Interstate 30 by late Sunday/early Monday
morning as the upper trough pushes a cold front towards the
region.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Friday Night/

Weak frontal boundary across northeast Texas and southern Arkansas
at the start of the long term period to serve as the main focus
driving the weather pattern through midweek. Southwest flow aloft
streaming atop the cooler airmass north of the front across the I-30
corridor to support showers on Monday into Tuesday. High
temperatures both days to range from the lower 50s across the I-30
corridor to the mid 70s across north Louisiana.

Rain chances to increase areawide on Wednesday as a closed low in
the Gulf of Mexico moves inland across the northern gulf coast while
at the same time a closed upper-low across Texas shifts east into
the ArkLaTex. Locally heavy rainfall may be possible on Wednesday
into Wednesday night.

Conditions to quickly improve on Thursday as the surface and upper-
low shift east allowing for northwest flow to become established
aloft. A reinforcement of cool temperatures to persist through late
week as high pressure builds areawide. Temperatures on Thursday and
Friday to range from highs in the lower 60s to lows in the 40s. /05/

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1254 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020/

AVIATION...

Low stratus continues to hang around the region today, resulting
in MVFR/IFR ceilings at all TAF sites currently. Stratus may
erode a bit across East Texas this afternoon giving way to VFR
ceilings. However, the low clouds quickly return overnight with
MVFR/IFR and possible LIFR ceilings at all locations through the
remainder of the TAF period. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  51  70  59  75 /   0   0   0  30
MLU  52  70  56  78 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  47  67  55  62 /   0   0  20  70
TXK  48  66  56  66 /   0   0  10  50
ELD  46  66  54  71 /   0   0   0  20
TYR  51  74  62  69 /   0   0  10  50
GGG  49  73  61  72 /   0   0   0  40
LFK  53  77  64  78 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

20/05


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