Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 232357
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
557 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

.AVIATION...

For the 23/00Z TAF period, IFR/MVFR cigs continue to plague our
eastern terminals in Arkansas and Louisiana, but improvement is
expected over the next few hours as they shift farther east and
eventually allow VFR conditions to return overnight. A mid-level
cloud deck around 10Kft will quickly fill in behind the departing
low cigs as the upper level low to our north continues to slowly
pivot eastward from SE Kansas into SW Missouri. As a result, these
mid-level cloud layers will continue to advect over much of our
terminal airspace through Friday morning in addition to some thin
cirrus through the remainder of Friday. Otherwise, light W/NW
winds averaging around 5 kts overnight will increase on Friday to
between 10-15 kts with higher gusts near 20 kts through the end of
the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 234 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020/

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Friday Night/

Only a few showers remaining across the eastern sections of our
CWA as the weak surface trough causing most of the previous days rain
continues to move east of the region. Northwest winds and
drier/cooler conditions will move across the area in wake of the
departing system along with decreasing cloud cover and overnight
lows in the 30s. Late tonight into Friday morning, a closed low
over the Central Plains will dive southeastward through Southern
Missouri/Northern Arkansas. Some light wrap around precip from
the low could make it into our northern most counties during the
predawn hours, but confidence is low at this time as current
thinking is that the low will be too far north and the wrap around
precip will stay north of our region. As the low continues to
move eastward toward the Ohio Valley on Friday, the trailing
associated cold front will push through our region. Moisture is
very limited with this system, so no rain is expected as it moves
through. However, it will bring a reinforcing shot of colder and
drier air to the region with temperatures falling into the low to
mid 30s by Saturday morning. Areas north of I-30 may fall into the
upper 20s.

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Wednesday Night/

Near-zonal flow in place aloft and high pressure at the sfc across
the region Saturday will make for mild weather, with temps topping
out in the mid 50s to mid 60s Saturday. However, cloud cover will
rapidly increase ahead of a disturbance diving down the Plains. Rain
chances will increase as well especially during the overnight hours
Saturday and into Sunday, as the disturbance moves ovhd.

Trof will move ewd by late Sunday/early Monday, ushering in dry
weather under a brief stint of weak upper ridging. Rain chances will
quickly return as a compact upper low moves across N TX Monday night
into Tuesday night. Moisture return should be somewhat better with
this disturbance, which may result in increased instability and thus
a chance at at least isold tstms.

Dry weather will carry us through the end of the pd Wednesday into
Wednesday night, as the shortwave pushes e of our area. With very
little modification either way to the airmass this pd, expect temps
to run very near or slightly above normal through the duration.

/12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  57  35  60 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  38  56  34  58 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  33  50  29  56 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  36  51  32  56 /  10   0   0   0
ELD  35  53  32  57 /  10   0   0   0
TYR  37  59  36  61 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  37  57  35  61 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  39  62  37  64 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/20/12


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