Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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019
FXUS64 KSHV 070337
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
937 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

.UPDATE...

Only minor changes during this update. Added additional cloud
cover the the entire region as cirrus continues to move into the
region from the northwest. Also, made slight adjustments to the
diurnal temperature trend overnight to reflect current trends.
Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast remains on track. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 814 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019/

AVIATION...

VFR conditions across the TAF sites currently. However, patchy
low cigs will develop and move across the region. Additional low cigs
and patchy fog may redevelop overnight, bringing additional
flight category reductions to portions of the region. Otherwise,
expect nwly winds around 10 kts to gradually veer around to the ne
by sunrise Saturday. /20/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019/

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Saturday Night/

The latest RAP mid-level analysis indicates a 500mb short wave
now well east of the area in Alabama. In the wake of this feature,
the area is in a northwesterly mid-level flow. At the surface, a
weak area of relatively low pressure (1017 mb) is centered over
southern Louisiana and moving into the northern Gulf of Mexico
with a 1029mb high centered well north of the area in Iowa.
Diurnal cumulus have develop in an area from Texarkana southwest
into east Texas and across central Louisiana with mostly sunny
skies otherwise.

There is HRRR/NAM 3km agreement that the area will remain in a
mid-level northwesterly flow will slowly become more zonal with
conditions staying dry as a surface high passes well north of the
area through Saturday. Diurnal cumulus will mostly diminish this
evening with some pre-dawn stratus developing and patchy fog
possible Saturday morning. Partly to mostly sunny skies will
decrease in coverage through the day on Saturday with mostly clear
skies Saturday night.

For temperatures, lows tonight will range from the upper 30s
northwest of the I-30 corridor to the upper 40s in central
Louisiana and Deep East Texas. Saturday will be a comfortable
late Fall day with highs ranging from the upper 50s in
southwestern Arkansas and McCurtain County, Oklahoma to the mid
60s in Deep East Texas and central Louisiana. Lows on Saturday
night will range from the near 40 in southeastern Oklahoma and
southwestern Arkansas to the mid 40s across much of East Texas and
northern Louisiana. /04-Woodrum/

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday Night/

Starting 12z Sunday, generally zonal upper level flow is expected
across the area throughout the day Sunday and into Monday
morning. Southwesterly low level flow will make a return to the
area by early Sunday morning. Meanwhile, a deep upper level trough
will begin digging south across the western CONUS. As this trough
works eastward, an associated cold front will begin to move
through the area by Monday afternoon. Forcing will be sufficient
ahead of the front to support scattered showers to develop. The
best chances for precipitation across the area will come post-
frontal on Monday night and continue through early Tuesday night.
We should see a brief break in the rain for much of the day
Wednesday and into Thursday afternoon before another deep upper-
level trough is expected to move through the late Thursday night
into early Friday morning. There remains some model disagreements
in regards to this trough, anywhere from abundant moisture to no
moisture. As a result, will leave mention of some low end PoPs in
to account for the potential.

Despite increasing cloud cover on Sunday, temperatures will be
around 5 to 10 degrees above seasonable normals. These unseasonably
warm temperatures will continue Sunday night and into Monday. Monday
will be the warmest day of the upcoming week as temperatures climb
to around 10 to 15 degrees above normal. In the wake of the passing
cold front Monday afternoon, temperatures will fall to and remain
below normal throughout the remainder of the week. Tuesday night
will be the coolest night of the week with portions of the area
possibly seeing sub-freezing temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  48  63  46  67 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  48  60  46  67 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  39  59  41  63 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  42  58  43  64 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  42  59  42  64 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  44  62  46  68 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  45  63  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  50  66  47  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

20



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