Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 082113

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
313 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday Night/

Nice warming trend continues through the middle part of the work
week with dry conditions expected as well. Weak ridging aloft will
continue to dominate our weather pattern through at least late on
Tuesday as we await the effect of a deep upper level trough that
will really not be impacting our region until late this week but
especially this weekend.

What we will see through the short term is the return of low level
moisture advection which will begin, at least across our western
third late tonight in the form of low clouds underneath what
should be increasing high thin cloud cover expected to move across
our region late tonight. With the ridge axis well east of our
region, should see at least the western half of our region keep
some wind overnight which will help to hold temps up somewhat vs
our eastern third with light winds which could aid in temperatures
being a little cooler. Having said that, overnight lows will range
from the lower 40s northeast to the lower 50s west.

A mix of cloud cover on Tuesday but will see some peaks of sun
during the day, especially across our eastern half and given that
we will be starting out warmer in the morning, southerly winds
will again aid in a good warmup areawide on Tuesday with highs
ranging mostly in the middle 70s areawide which is a few degrees
above the cooler NBM MOS output, closer to GFSMOS.

Should see more in the way of low level cloud cover areawide
Tuesday Night which along with the wind will help to hold
temperatures up Tuesday Night. Flat upper ridging moves east of
our region during this time frame with southwest flow commencing
across the Southern Plains, thus priming the pump for our next big
weather maker which will be discussed more in the Long Term
discussion below. Overnight lows Tue Night will range mostly in
the middle 50s areawide.


.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday Night/

Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to strengthen on Wednesday as
a strong upper trough digs southward along the California coast. In
response to the upper trough, a surface low will rapidly develop lee
of the Rockies tightening the pressure gradient bringing increasing
southerly winds. Wind speeds will likely be very near Lake Wind
Advisory criteria across most of the area. The strong winds will
also enhance the warming trend due to increased warm air advection.
Daytime highs should be above 70 degrees F in most areas on
Wednesday and near 80 degrees F south of Interstate 20. Many
locations will likely be well into the 80s across the southern half
of the area Thursday and Friday.

As the upper trough moves into the Desert Southwest, a series of
lead shortwaves will help to push a front slowly southeast through
the Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible,
mainly north of Interstate 30, starting around sunrise Thursday
morning. As vertical ascent increases, rain chances will gradually
expand southeastward. The front should eventually become stationary
north of the forecast area in Oklahoma and Arkansas. This will keep
the best rain chances confined north of Interstate 30.

Model guidance has come into much better agreement for the weekend.
The upper trough and surface low is expected to become nearly
vertically stacked and then slowly move eastward across the region.
Now, it appears the entire area will remain in the warm sector prior
the arrival of the Pacific cold front from the west during the
weekend. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding timing,
but the ECMWF/GFS generally agree that the Pacific front and main
round of convection should move across the area on Sunday.

Synoptically, the strength of the upper trough and surface low are
quite impressive, and the models show strong QPF signals. Deep layer
shear will be quite strong, which should promote organized,
convection, but instability looks to be meager, and the mid-level
lapse rates weaken as the system moves across the forecast area.
However, with the uncertainty still in place, severe weather cannot
be ruled out. Sunday would be the most likely day for any severe



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1118 AM CST Mon Mar 8 2021/


Beautiful aviation conditions across our airspace this afternoon
with SKC and southerly low level winds near 10kts at the surface
increasing to near 25 kts just off the surface near 2-5kft. As we
transition into the evening hours, should begin to see thin cirrus
increasing from the west and should encompass our entire airspace
through the overnight hours. Likewise, we should begin to see
MVFR/Low VFR ceilings ranging between 25hdft and 35hdft as early
as 09/09z at TYR and a little later during the morning across our
other TAF sites. Left this low cloud cover out of the ELD/MLU
terminals through the 24hr TAF window.

Winds for the remainder of the day will be S to SE with speeds
generally near or below 10kts (a little stronger at the TYR
terminal), diminishing to near or under 5 to 10kts overnight. A
tightening pressure gradient will result in SE to S winds through
18z on Tue again, near 10kts with some stronger gusts possible
with late morning mixing across our NE TX terminal locations.



SHV  48  76  57  78 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  44  73  56  77 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  45  70  54  73 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  49  74  57  74 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  42  74  55  75 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  52  74  57  76 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  49  74  56  77 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  48  76  57  80 /   0   0   0  10




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