Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 280611
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
111 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022

...New AVIATION...

See below for the 06Z aviation forecast discussion.

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022

All is quiet this evening, a far cry from what was observed just
over 24 hrs ago, as the weak cool frontal bndry has slipped S into
the Hill Country of S TX, into SE TX to along the SW LA coast.
Drier air continues to gradually spill SSW into the region, with
the greatest gradient evident in the evening isodrosotherm
analysis from along the Red River of NE TX into Srn AR/extreme Nrn
LA just N of the I-20 corridor. Still seeing some cu development
occurring though across portions of Lower E TX/WCntrl and Cntrl
LA, with this area remaining favored for additional development
overnight through much of Tuesday in an area of higher theta-e.
With a weak shear axis lingering over SCntrl and SE LA/SCntrl MS
from a weak upper low pressure area over the Nrn Gulf just off the
LA Coast, any convection redevelopment will remain S of the area,
and thus, have removed slight chance pops across Deep E TX and
Cntrl LA tonight, and also toned down the sky wording as the
cirrus shield continues to thin from the Cntrl/S TX convection.
With the dry advection continuing overnight, did lower min temps a
tad across SE OK, portions of E TX/SCntrl AR and extreme Nrn LA,
with slightly below normal temps (for a change) expected. Aside
from only isolated convection over Cntrl LA Tuesday afternoon,
quiet conditions and lower RH`s are expected over the region.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022

Seasonable weather conditions will continue through the holiday
weekend across the Ark-La-Tex with diurnally-driven chances of
precipitation. This is due to ridging aloft that will gain a more
elongated shape as it builds westward across the southeast U.S.
towards the Mississippi River Valley. Southerly flow will restore
Gulf moisture to the atmosphere with dew points in the 70s returning
in earnest by Thursday, moderating a drier post-frontal air mass.
Maximum temperatures will remain in the low-to-mid 90s, while
minimum temperatures remain in the low-to-mid 70s. By the latter end
of the medium range, the trough denoted by the NHC will move across
the Texas coast with moisture shifting along the western periphery
of the ridge, making its closest approach by Friday. With the pulse-
mode nature of the convection that develops, day 1-7 QPF values
still amount to less than an inch with the wettest areas in our
southern zones.

Long-range guidance suggests a very gradual warm-up with ridging
continuing to shift westward over the Ark-La-Tex, allowing maximum
temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s by Independence Day. While rain
chances will also gradually taper off, diurnally-driven convection
cannot be ruled out on any day, including this holiday weekend.
Winds out of the east during the middle of the week will veer to
gain a southerly component through the weekend.

/16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022

For the 28/06Z TAF period, VFR conditions prevail in post-frontal
air mass with drier air continuing to filter southward across our
airspace. Clouds are mainly limited to thin cirrus as cu field has
nearly exited all of our southern airspace in East Texas and North
Louisiana. Look for cirrus to persist through much of the period
along with a sparse cu field redeveloping on Tuesday, mainly over
our southern terminals along and south of I-20. Winds will bear a
NE component throughout the period with speeds generally ranging
from 5-10 kts although slightly lower during the overnight hours.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  67  94  73 /   0   0  10  10
MLU  90  67  92  71 /  10   0  20  10
DEQ  87  60  90  67 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  89  65  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  87  62  90  68 /   0   0  10  10
TYR  95  68  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  93  66  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  95  69  95  72 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...19


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