Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 271854 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
154 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

UPDATE... Isolated showers and thunderstorms persisted across
portions of deep east TX and central and north central LA this
afternoon, but additional development has occurred across east TX.
The activity across east TX will likely struggle to sustain
itself as increased subsidence continued to infiltrate that area.
Nonetheless, this update will include an adjustment to this
afternoon`s POPs to include additional areas across east TX, as
well as increasing POPs to 40-50 percent chance where showers are
ongoing. Furthermore, lowered temps a few degrees across portions
of northeast LA and southwest AR as temps struggled to reach the
90 degree mark given a bit of cloud cover.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1230 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018/

MVFR CIGS continued to plague ktxk and will likely remain the
case for the next few hours, before it finally scours out.
Scattered -SHRA have been ongoing since earlier this morning just
east of klfk, with additional isolated -SHRA having developed
south of kshv early this afternoon. Additional precipitation
elsewhere may be hard-pressed to develop given increased
subsidence /mitigates the development of rainfall/ has been
infiltrating the region from the west. Thus, have elected to only
insert a VCTS at kshv and klfk at this time. Will of course amend
as necessary. Any lingering precipitation will gradually dissipate
shortly after sunset. East-southeast wind speeds of 4-8 kts this
afternoon will become light and variable /and for some locations
calm/ overnight whilst computer models hint at VFR-MVFR CIGS and
VIS due to fog. Have inserted fog at a few terminals where
confidence is highest, but do not feel very confident with regards
MVFR CIGS /will only an insert of SCT where appropriate/. By
sunrise, winds will have backed to the east-northeast at 5 kts or
less, due to Subtropical Alberto making landfall along the FL
Panhandle/AL Gulf coasts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Monday/

At 0830z, isolated convection was still slowly moving south over
portions of Western Louisiana, just east of Interstate 49.
However, radar loops over the last couple of hours have shown a
gradual weakening trend. Combined with storm motion, this activity
should either dissipate or move south and out of the CWA by 12z
this morning. More isolated to widely scattered diurnal convection
is likely during the day today. The highest rain chances today
and Monday will remain over Louisiana and Southern Arkansas in
association with the easterly flow around a mid-level trough in
the Gulf of Mexico and Subtropical Storm Alberto in the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. Convection storm motion will generally be
southwesterly or south. Westward extent of PoPs will be dependent
on what feature wins out: subsidence from an upper ridge axis over
the Central CONUS or the moisture wrapping around the west side
of the Gulf trough.

Given the temperatures recorded yesterday, without widespread
convection, there should be little reason why daytime temperatures
will not be just as warm today. The forecast for today is several
degrees warmer than the majority of the model guidance. Most of
the guidance did not even meet yesterday`s values. Daytime highs
on Monday should be a degree of two warmer than today given the
lack of rainfall combined with the additions of subsidence and
compressional warming west of the landfalling Alberto.

Heat index values will likely be over 100 degrees F for many
locations today, especially in East Texas. However, we should
remain below Heat Advisory criteria through Monday.


LONG TERM.../Monday night through Saturday/

The main weather story for the extended will continue to be with the
unseasonably hot conditions prevailing, as high pressure remains
entrenched over the region. The models continue to hint at a few
showers and thunderstorms from Alberto`s outer rainbands possibly
making it into north central Louisiana on Tuesday, and they are
also showing the potential an MCS to move across southern Oklahoma
and Arkansas on Wednesday. Otherwise, we are looking at dry
conditions prevailing as well. Daytime temperatures will likely
remain in the mid 90s through Wednesday, but warm into the upper
90s for the latter part of the work week and weekend. Heat indices
will be no doubt be above 100 degrees these days as well. Our
overnight temperatures will remain warm as well, with temperatures
only falling into the mid 70s for most locations. Needless to
say, it will be hot, with no relief in site for the near future.



SHV  70  94  72  94 /  10  20  10  10
MLU  71  90  70  91 /  20  30  20  20
DEQ  68  95  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
TXK  70  93  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  70  92  69  92 /  10  20  10  20
TYR  71  95  72  94 /   0  10   0   0
GGG  71  95  71  94 /  10  10   0   0
LFK  70  94  72  95 /  20  10  10   0




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