921
FXUS64 KSHV 282224
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
524 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 443 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

 - Typical summertime conditions are expected to continue with near
   to slightly above average temperatures for late June/early July.

 - Diurnally driven convection will remain possible each day for
   at least some parts of the region, although coverage will be
   mostly isolated to scattered at best in most cases.

 - Model guidance continues to indicate the potential advection of
   Saharan Dust into the Gulf early next week, which could impact
   our area on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 443 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Upper-level ridge has kept convection largely at bay so far this
afternoon, but we are seeing some isolated activity beginning to
pop up around Lower Toledo Bend country. This trend will likely
continue through at least sunset and possibly a few hours beyond
that so did maintain slight chance PoPs across roughly our eastern
half through early to mid evening. Otherwise, look for mostly
clear to partly cloudy skies overnight with low temperatures
ranging through the 70s.

A mostly rinse and repeat performance is expected on Sunday, but
convective coverage may be slightly higher given that the upper
ridge is expected to weaken somewhat and open the door for more of
a sea breeze influence and farther northward extent of convection.
High temperatures will continue climb into the lower to mid 90s
range once again with max heat index values hovering in the lower
100s.

As we move into next week, a weak cool front will approach our
region from the north but is not expected to make any progress
into our northern zones. However, it should serve as a focus for
more scattered showers and thunderstorms through the mid week
timeframe before rain chances really begin to drop off by the end
of the week and into next weekend with the upper ridge becoming
more influential once again.

One potential fly in the ointment to the forecast involves Saharan
dust shifting westward from the Atlantic into the Caribbean and
eventually the Gulf by early next week. Some of this dust layer
could impact our region, especially our southern zones so will be
watching closely for this possibility as well.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

VFR conditions prevail across most terminals at the beginning of
the 28/18z period. A scattered cu field will remain through the
afternoon with some popcorn convection possible. VCTS is included
at sites with the greatest confidence, but could pop up elsewhere.
Storms will die soon after sunset and leave light southerly winds
overnight. Some patchy fog could develop around sunrise that
would gradually lift through the late morning hours.

/57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Diurnally driven convection will be possible once again this
afternoon and early evening. These storms will be capable of
producing strong wind gusts, however, widespread severe
thunderstorms are not anticipated at this time so spotter
activation is not likely needed today or tonight. Nonetheless, any
reports would be appreciated from any of the stronger storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  95  77  95 /  20  20   0  20
MLU  75  94  75  95 /  20  30   0  30
DEQ  72  93  72  93 /  20  10   0  30
TXK  76  96  76  96 /  20  10   0  20
ELD  74  94  74  94 /  20  20   0  30
TYR  75  93  75  93 /  10  10   0  20
GGG  74  94  74  93 /  10  10   0  20
LFK  74  92  74  94 /  20  40   0  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...57