Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 250003

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
703 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Beautiful flying conditions this evening across our airspace and
those conditions are expected to continue through the next 24
hours. Thin cirrus will be increasing overnight and through the
day Wednesday along with some AC from west to east and eventually
we should begin to see a cu field forming ahead of our next storm
system. That storm system should arrive at the tail end of this
TAF period across our TXK and TYR terminals in the form of a wind
shift and lower ceilings just beyond this TAF period. Also will
need to introduce some precip to our terminal airspace just beyond
this TAF period as well. Otherwise expect light and variable winds
overnight with south winds veering quickly around to the southwest
and west during the day Wednesday.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 312 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018/

Benign weather noted across the Four-State Region late this aftn, as
dry northwest flow aloft and sfc ridging prevailed across the
region. Rather light northerly winds /or at time variable/ and
generally clear skies is evidence of the sfc ridge influence, only
exception is across portions of southwest AR and central and
northeast LA where scattered mid-level cloud decks have developed.
Temps per 20Z metars reported upper 70s with a few lower 80s making
for a seasonably warm day. Tonight, sfc ridging will commence to
shift east whilst as UA shortwave trough across the Northern Rockies
digs south-southeast towards the Four-State Region. A sfc low ahead
of the upper level system will make its presence know as sfc winds
veer to the south overnight. Computer models continued to struggle
wrt to the a cold frontal impingement and associated precip courtesy
of the approaching UA disturbance. The NAM solution has considerably
slowed down from previous model runs, thus hinting at the fropa
/and precip/ moving across far southeast OK, portions of extreme
northeast TX and southwest AR mid-late aftn, versus mid-late
morning per the GFS and the ECMWF was in the middle /early aftn/.
With that said, have inherited POPs more so across the northern
zones by mid-morning with a southeastward expansion throughout the
day, with lingering precip across the far eastern zones by
Thursday morning. Do not see a reason to change this given the
inconsistencies and hopefully the overnight/midnight shift will
have a better handle on precip and fropa timing. No severe weather
is expected attm.

Next disturbance to affect the region is poised for the end of the
week as a longwave trough. It is interesting to note that the ECMWF
solution has been the most persistent in exhibiting the tail-end of
the longwave trough /which will move across the Four-State Region/
having adequate large scale ascent to generate scattered showers
with perhaps a few thunderstorms. This same evolution is being shown
per the Canadian and the GFS has trended towards this as well.
Nonetheless, there is still uncertainty with where the best precip
will occur as the Canadian and GFS shows light precip across the
northeastern-half of the CWA versus the majority of the area per the
ECMWF. Will elect to hold on to mentionable POPs on Friday with
highest POPs positioned across northeastern-half of the FA. Once
again, no severe weather is expected. Thereafter, UA ridging and dry
conditions will ensue for the weekend, followed by the flow aloft
veering to the southwest and weak embedded disturbance may result in
isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Looking a bit
beyond, a closed Pacific UA low moving onshore across Cali and
towards the region will result in sharpened southwest flow aloft by
mid-late week, and depending on the track of the system will result
in additional precip chances throughout the week.

The onset of the fropa tomorrow will result in a daytime temp
gradient ranging from the upper 60s across the northwest to lower
80s to the southeast. Temps will settle into the 70s thereafter
before once again warming up into the 70s and 80s by the end
of the weekend with the passage of the UA ridge.


SHV  57  77  51  71 /   0  20  50  10
MLU  56  79  53  72 /   0  10  60  20
DEQ  52  69  45  71 /  10  70  20  10
TXK  54  71  49  70 /   0  50  50  10
ELD  53  75  50  70 /   0  30  50  20
TYR  58  73  49  71 /   0  30  50  10
GGG  57  74  50  71 /   0  30  50  10
LFK  59  82  56  74 /   0  10  50  10




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