Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 230241
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
941 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Made minor changes to the forecast for tonight and Monday
by adjusting the cloud cover and removing the rain chances
early Monday morning from the Northeast zones, Cloud cover
will help keep overnight lows from falling. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 513 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018/

AVIATION...
Deep and stacked upper low spinning across Easter Arkansas this
evening will only move into the Tenn Valley by this time on
Monday. Our terminal airspace is left with plentiful low level
moisture in the wake of this system with a mix of MVFR/VFR
ceilings across all but our LFK terminal where cloud cover has
scattered out.

For the overnight hours, should continue seeing a mix of MVFR/VFR
ceilings across most locations with the possibility of IFR
conditions late tonight through early Mon at the TXK/ELD terminals
where the moisture is a little deeper. MVFR/VFR ceilings will be
slow to scatter out on Monday but where MVFR ceilings persist
through the post dawn hours on Monday, those ceilings should
recover to VFR variety by late morning into the afternoon hours on
Monday.

Look for west to northwest winds tonight near 10kts or less
increasing to near 10kts beyond 23/15z on Monday with an
occasional gusts upwards of 15-18kts, especially where we see a
scattering out of cloud cover by afternoon. /13/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...
The UA low responsible for yesterdays moderate-heavy rainfall was
noted across northern AR late this aftn, continuing its slow
eastward wobble. Although the heaviest rainfall has exited the
Four-State Region, extensive cloud cover /with the exception of
some clearing across portions of east TX and deep East TX/ and a
500 mb 40+ kt jet max on the backside of the disturbance affecting
the northern-half of the CWA, may result in intermittent
drizzle/light rain throughout the remainder of this aftn.
Concurrently, a cold front has pushed across the FA and a slightly
tightened pressure gradient across the eastern zones has resulted
in breezy /and gusty/ west-northwest wind speeds of 10-15 mph
sustained. The gradient is poised to relax shortly after sunset
and should see wind speeds drop to below 10 mph. Overnight temps
will be a few degrees warmer than previous nights, given
persistent cloud cover across the majority of the region.

Tomorrow, the backside of the UA low/slight large scale ascent
will continue to brush across far southeast OK, southwest AR and
northeast LA which may once again, cause intermittent
drizzle/light showers across the said areas. Despite light
northwesterly winds, temps will still manage to warm into the
upper 60s to lower 70s where the warmest conditions will occur
across the far western and southern portions of the CWA as cloud
cover will commence to thin/scatter out there. Dry northwest flow
aloft and thus benign weather will take shape Tuesday, but
attention will turn to a shortwave trough that will move across
the region Wednesday evening/night. There are some timing
discrepancies amongst model solutions regarding the timing of the
disturbances` associated southeastward moving cold front, as it is
exhibited to affect far southeast OK and extreme northeast TX
either early Wednesday morning or the aftn. Trying to time the
fropa will be of importance as precip is exhibited to develop
along and ahead of the front. Will elect to hold on to mentionable
POPs Wednesday morning-night keeping in mind that additional POPs
may need to be inserted during the day on Thursday if the fropa
is slower than expected. Thereafter, model solutions continued to
struggle with how the synoptic scale will evolve. Some computer
models show a longwave trough and scattered showers developing
along a cold front by the end of the week, or a shortwave trough
remaining well to the northeast of the area ushering in a weak
cold front and thus no precip shows just how much long term
solutions are differing on the synoptic scale. Have inherited
slight chance POPs on Friday and see no reason to remove it just
yet, at least not until better agreement occurs amongst the
models. Will adjust accordingly in the coming days. Thereafter, UA
ridging will progress overhead for the weekend.

Temps will be warmest by Tuesday /middle to upper 70s with perhaps a
few lower 80s/ followed by the return of 60s and 70s on Wednesday
with the passage of a front and the generation of showers. Temps
will recover in the 70s thereafter. /29/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  52  71  54  79 /   0  10   0   0
MLU  53  71  54  77 /  10  10  10   0
DEQ  50  70  50  78 /  10  10   0   0
TXK  51  70  53  77 /  10  10   0   0
ELD  51  69  52  77 /  10  10  10   0
TYR  50  72  54  79 /   0  10   0   0
GGG  51  71  53  79 /   0  10   0   0
LFK  52  74  55  81 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/13/29



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