Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 182341
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
641 PM CDT Tue Sep 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Tue Sep 18 2018

At 330 PM, cloudy skies prevailed across much of the region. The
exception was northern Koochiching and northwest Saint Louis
county, which saw sunny skies break out this afternoon.
Temperatures ranged from the upper 40s at the Grand Marais
airport, to the 50s to lower 60s elsewhere. Winds were northeast
across the entire region. The drizzle from earlier today seems to
have abated across the area, as ceilings rose.

The focus for tonight will definitely be on the potential for
precipitation overnight. The next batch of precipitation should
move northward during the latter half of the night, as an intense
LLJ redevelops throughout the plains. Will continue to increase
POP`s across the south especially, with little precipitation
expected to reach north of the Highway 2 corridor overnight.

The focus by Wednesday will be in the southeast half of the CWA,
with up to a quarter inch of rainfall expected during the day.
Portions of the southeast could see around 0.35 inch during the
day Wednesday. Gusty northeast winds will continue across the area
with a considerable amount of cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Tue Sep 18 2018

An active fall weather pattern settles in late this week into next
week with a few chances for rainfall and seasonable temperatures.
Primary weather concern for the long-term forecast is heavy rainfall
expected Wednesday night through Friday morning.

On the synoptic scale, by mid-week a broad mid/upper level ridge
will be building over the southeast towards the Carolinas as a mid-
level longwave trough tracks east across the Rockies and into the
Great Plains. A surface low will deepen over eastern Colorado as a
result of the falling heights as the mid-level trough approaches,
with the surface low tracking northeast towards the Upper Great
Lakes late-week. As this surface low tracks towards the Upper
Midwest, southerly low level flow will increase the low level
moisture resulting in deep moisture in place when the strong broad-
scale lift from the approaching mid-level trough reaches the region.
Rain, heavy at times, is expected as the low approaches and moves
across central MN into northern WI, with the heaviest rainfall rates
Thursday afternoon. While flash flooding is not anticipated at this
point, some minor ponding is possible and rivers will rise. In
addition, this fall storm will go on a near-perfect track for
producing strong easterly winds across western Lake Superior, and
while the surface low will not be unusually strong (falling to
around 994 mb over central Lake Superior Thursday night), it may be
the first storm of the fall to produce gales on Lake Superior.

The low exits to the east and rain gradually ends Friday morning as
a cool area of high pressure builds in from the west. The surface
high will be over the Upper Midwest Friday night, and with clear
skies temperatures will fall to near the freezing mark in some
spots. The mid/upper level pattern across North America becomes more
zonal, promoting a number of fast-moving mid-level shortwave troughs
to track across the region late in the weekend into next week. A
chance for light rain Saturday night into Sunday morning with a weak
front, but for the most part the forecast is now trending towards a
mostly dry and seasonable weekend.

Monday into Tuesday another similar set-up to this Wed/Thurs
rainfall, with the possibility for heavy rainfall amounts and strong
winds.

Temperatures seasonable throughout the long term period with highs
in the 50s to 60s and lows in the 30s to 40s. Lows coldest Friday
night when a frost is possible away from Lake Superior, but
otherwise no frosts or hard freezes on the horizon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Sep 18 2018

The Northland was between high pressure over northern Ontario and
low pressure well off to the southwest. Plenty of MVFR and some
local IFR ceilings were occurring. There will be some improvement
through the evening but ceilings are then expected to lower again
overnight to IFR/MVFR. LIFR ceilings will be possible around Lake
Superior, possibly affecting KDLH. There may be some showers as
well tonight with chances increasing on Wednesday then increasing
further Wednesday night.

Winds for most areas will remain below 10 knots but will be a
higher at the head of Lake Superior including KDLH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  59  51  57 /  30  50  40 100
INL  42  62  44  59 /  10  20  10  50
BRD  49  62  52  60 /  40  60  40  90
HYR  49  61  54  65 /  50  60  70 100
ASX  47  59  52  61 /  30  60  60 100

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...Melde


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