139
FXUS63 KDLH 142348
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
648 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances increase tonight across northern areas. There is
  a 15 percent chance of a few storms tonight. A storm or two
  may be strong.

- Rain spreads southward across the entire Northland tomorrow.
  Moderate to heavy rain is possible along with some strong to
  severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- Turning cooler Wednesday with rain chances lingering.

- Drier to end the week before rain chances and warmer
  temperatures return for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A stationary boundary was draped across northern Wisconsin into
central Minnesota and North Dakota this afternoon. A band of
showers was located across northern Minnesota and was slowly
moving eastward. Zonal flow aloft will bring a parade of
shortwaves across the Northern Tier through Wednesday. This,
coupled with a stationary boundary at the surface that will not
move much during this time, will lead to multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday.

The first round will likely develop tonight on the nose of a low
level jet across North Dakota and then push eastward during the
early morning hours. These storms are expected to be elevated
and may pose a low risk for some large hail across northeastern
Minnesota tonight. As the stationary boundary remains in the
area for Tuesday, additional showers and storms are expected to
develop. Models build around 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE during the
afternoon hours with effective shear around 20 knots. Storm mode
will likely be linear along the front with large hail and
damaging winds at the primary threat. There will also be a
localized tornado threat along the front where some low level
turning is expected. SPC has upgraded northwest Wisconsin and
the I-35 corridor to a slight risk for these threats. Additional
showers and storms will linger for Tuesday night into Wednesday,
but are not expected to be severe as the front shifts south of
the region and cooler air fills in behind. Heavy rainfall from
high PWATs over 1.5" and training storms will lead to some
flooding concerns. The WPC has the Borderlands outlined in a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall tonight with a slight over
much of the region for tomorrow. This threat will be highest
wherever the front sets up.

Rainfall may linger into Wednesday with models disagreeing on
how long it lingers with some continuing chances into Wednesday
night. Again, this will be dependent on that stationary boundary
dropping south of the region on Wednesday. After highs in the
70s and 80s Tuesday, 60s will be prevalent for Wednesday with
50s downwind of Lake Superior thanks to easterly winds. Dry
conditions will then prevail for Thursday into Friday with highs
in the 70s as high pressure moves through.

Rain chances then return for the weekend as the upper flow turns
zonal again and the shortwave train starts back up. Temperatures
also warm back into the upper 70s and lower 80s, so some strong
to severe storms will not be out of the question. Otherwise,
model disagreement precludes and good timing estimates for
weekend rainfall at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 648 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Light rain will continue near INL this evening. A few showers
are likely at DLH, also. Smoke still lingers at a few sites with
VFR visibility. Rain chances increase slightly later tonight
over central Minnesota in response to a strengthening low-level
jet. There is 10 to 20 percent chance of storms between 15.06Z
and 15.12Z. Will need to add more PROB30s if rain and storm
chances increase over the course of this evening. Showers become
more widespread Tuesday and there will be another chance of
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 353 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Winds will become easterly tonight and Tuesday around 10 knots
or less before starting to increase Tuesday night to 10 to 20
knots with gusts to 25 knots, highest in the western arm and the
Apostle Islands. These winds will also generate waves in these
areas of 3 to 5 feet. Conditions hazardous to small craft will
be likely during this time. Winds then diminish to 5 to 15 knots
Wednesday night. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will be
possible tonight into Wednesday. A few stronger storms will be
possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across western Lake
Superior. Large hail and wind gusts to 50 knots will be possible
in stronger storms along with cloud to water lightning and heavy
rainfall.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...Huyck
MARINE...BJH